Bitcoin - the 4 year cycle - is the bull run over?
Updated
Approximately every 4 years comes the 'bitcoin halving', where the reward for mining bitcoin is halved with the goal of preventing an exponential increase in the amount of bitcoin in circulation 'capping supply'. As history has show, after each halving comes a bull run..
Halving 1: 28th November 2012
Halving 2: 9th July 2016
Halving 3: 11th May 2020
Halving 4: expected to take place in May 2024
(these dates are slightly misrepresented by the vertical lines on the graph)
After the 2012 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 9660% over an approximate 12 month period.
After the 2016 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 2930% over an approximate 17 month period.
After the 2020 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 640% over an approximate 11 month period, so far...
During the 2012/13 bull run, in April-July 2013 there was an approximate 80% pullback to $45, before price continued up to $1163
During the 2016/17 bull run, in June-July 2017 there was an approximate 40% pullback to $1830, before price continued up to $19666
During the 2020/21 bull run, in May-July 2021 there was an approximate 55% pullback to $28600, before price continued up to...?
The fact that the 2020/21 bull run has only made a 640% run in comparison to the 2930% and 9660% seen in the previous cycles, raises the question of whether or not bitcoin (and the crypto market as a whole) has further to go. If it is anything like the previous cycles, we are in that mid-year pullback, with the rest of the cycle still to play out.
A 25 fold or a 10 fold increase that we saw from the lows of the respective 2012/13 and 2016/17 pullbacks may be a bit optimistic, but I believe a run up to $75-90k within the next 4/5 months is likely.
Halving 1: 28th November 2012
Halving 2: 9th July 2016
Halving 3: 11th May 2020
Halving 4: expected to take place in May 2024
(these dates are slightly misrepresented by the vertical lines on the graph)
After the 2012 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 9660% over an approximate 12 month period.
After the 2016 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 2930% over an approximate 17 month period.
After the 2020 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 640% over an approximate 11 month period, so far...
During the 2012/13 bull run, in April-July 2013 there was an approximate 80% pullback to $45, before price continued up to $1163
During the 2016/17 bull run, in June-July 2017 there was an approximate 40% pullback to $1830, before price continued up to $19666
During the 2020/21 bull run, in May-July 2021 there was an approximate 55% pullback to $28600, before price continued up to...?
The fact that the 2020/21 bull run has only made a 640% run in comparison to the 2930% and 9660% seen in the previous cycles, raises the question of whether or not bitcoin (and the crypto market as a whole) has further to go. If it is anything like the previous cycles, we are in that mid-year pullback, with the rest of the cycle still to play out.
A 25 fold or a 10 fold increase that we saw from the lows of the respective 2012/13 and 2016/17 pullbacks may be a bit optimistic, but I believe a run up to $75-90k within the next 4/5 months is likely.
Note
Looking pretty good...
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