BTC - Christmas (Final) Shakedown
Updated
Greedily waiting for final Long entry after a waiting for the target range since the beginning December 21. Long Entry sub 
25K, Target will be 
41K / 50 WMA.
- Looks like buying is taking place at this level, especially in some key ALTs. Would ideally like to see a final capitulation down to catapult price upward and provide better entries on ALTs.
- Now not convinced we will hit the original short target of 18k and a 200 WMA touch - now considering the potential that BTC delivers a 200 MA touch in Q1 2023 (25K-30k levels).
The scenario developed in 2021 was based on historical (10 year) MA price interaction at market tops. Market Top interaction with the MA is not always exactly the same (so not a perfect indicator) but has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Support off 50 WMA
2. Break down and retest of 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
So far BTC has followed this hypothesis to the letter. As an extension a 4th stage is to retest the 50 WMA - currently trending towards41K (hence shifting long... temporarily).
Best, Hard Forky
25K, Target will be 41K / 50 WMA.- Looks like buying is taking place at this level, especially in some key ALTs. Would ideally like to see a final capitulation down to catapult price upward and provide better entries on ALTs.
- Now not convinced we will hit the original short target of 18k and a 200 WMA touch - now considering the potential that BTC delivers a 200 MA touch in Q1 2023 (
25K-30k levels).The scenario developed in 2021 was based on historical (10 year) MA price interaction at market tops. Market Top interaction with the MA is not always exactly the same (so not a perfect indicator) but has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Support off 50 WMA
2. Break down and retest of 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
So far BTC has followed this hypothesis to the letter. As an extension a 4th stage is to retest the 50 WMA - currently trending towards
41K (hence shifting long... temporarily).Best, Hard Forky
Note
on target
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