BTC - 38.2% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT @ 41575 FILLED !
Updated
M1 : Ongoing trend reversal in progress. 38.2% Fib ret @ 41'575 filled. Low
so far being 40'548. Next target on this time frame is @ 37'360 ahead of
a very strong support @ 34'372.
W1 : KS @ 40'550 hold... for the time being
D1 : Failure to recover above the D1 pivot level @ 45'000 increased the expected
selling pressure. Global picture is showing a primary broad bear trend with a secondary
downtrend which started @ 51'500 on May 14th by a doji pattern and confirmed by the former
uptrend support line !
H4 : Ongoing breakout of the 45000-42000 trading range which needs to be confirmed on the next H4 closing
level.
H1 : Below the clouds and below the cluster. watch the downtrend resistance line (43'000) and MBB (43500) as leading indicators
in this time frame. A sustainable recovery above 43'500 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk.
M30 : Same than H1. In this time frame, first resistance zone is 42'000-42'200
M15 : Below the clouds and below the former support trend line @ 42'400. Watch MBB, currently @ 42450 as a first warning of a potential short term recovery.
M5 : Potential double bottom in progress. Trigger @ 41'300, Target @ 42'000. Any short term recovery should still be seen as A CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY.
Upside potential pretty limited. Any long position should be protected with a tight stop loss, having in mind a countertrend tactical long exposure !!!Watch the clouds
CONCLUSION :
Yesterday's D1 closing level @ 42'877 confirmed the ongoing expected bearish scenario already mentioned several times and only a sustainable recovery above 45'000 first
ahead of the 46'500 area (current level of the secondary downtrend resistance line) would force to a reassessment view of the expected bearish scenario calling for lower
level towards the psychological support level of 40'000 ahead of 37'360 and 34'372, the latter level being a very strong support level.
so far being 40'548. Next target on this time frame is @ 37'360 ahead of
a very strong support @ 34'372.
W1 : KS @ 40'550 hold... for the time being
D1 : Failure to recover above the D1 pivot level @ 45'000 increased the expected
selling pressure. Global picture is showing a primary broad bear trend with a secondary
downtrend which started @ 51'500 on May 14th by a doji pattern and confirmed by the former
uptrend support line !
H4 : Ongoing breakout of the 45000-42000 trading range which needs to be confirmed on the next H4 closing
level.
H1 : Below the clouds and below the cluster. watch the downtrend resistance line (43'000) and MBB (43500) as leading indicators
in this time frame. A sustainable recovery above 43'500 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk.
M30 : Same than H1. In this time frame, first resistance zone is 42'000-42'200
M15 : Below the clouds and below the former support trend line @ 42'400. Watch MBB, currently @ 42450 as a first warning of a potential short term recovery.
M5 : Potential double bottom in progress. Trigger @ 41'300, Target @ 42'000. Any short term recovery should still be seen as A CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY.
Upside potential pretty limited. Any long position should be protected with a tight stop loss, having in mind a countertrend tactical long exposure !!!Watch the clouds
CONCLUSION :
Yesterday's D1 closing level @ 42'877 confirmed the ongoing expected bearish scenario already mentioned several times and only a sustainable recovery above 45'000 first
ahead of the 46'500 area (current level of the secondary downtrend resistance line) would force to a reassessment view of the expected bearish scenario calling for lower
level towards the psychological support level of 40'000 ahead of 37'360 and 34'372, the latter level being a very strong support level.
Comment
As expected the selling pressure pushed BTC towards a low so far of 38'514 but did not reach my technical target of 37360, Sorry guys :-)Nevertheless, recent price action triggered the following :
H4 : Last candle is showing a hammer pattern
H1, M30, M15 and M5 : Double bottom pattern with trigger level @ 39'900 activated.
Target : 41'286 (clouds resistance zone on M15 !)
Watch for a potential pullback towards the trigger level and see if it will hold.
On H1 first significant resistance is @ 41'058 slightly below the BD target previously mentioned
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