Bitcoin Daily Update (day 313)
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Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200
Trendline: Bear Channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,527
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008%
TD’ Sequential: R5
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance
Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs
Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing.
Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal.
Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time.
However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5.
This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops.
From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart.
However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200
Trendline: Bear Channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,527
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008%
TD’ Sequential: R5
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance
Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs
Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing.
Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal.
Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time.
However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5.
This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops.
From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart.
However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
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