Bitcoin Daily Update (day 171)
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1 day:Resist below $6,567 | 1 week: break down $5,750 support | 1 month predictions: <$5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag / descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,567 | S: $6,100 - $6,250
BTCUSDSHORTS:Testing 30,750 for support. If it can create higher low then watch for ath’ retest. 46% long and 54% short..
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0258
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference):
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -7.18% | 128 = -14.45%
Volume: Has been declining over last couple days while price rises.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Wicks from last two days being re explored today. Could provide a favorable r:r entry.
Ichimoku Cloud: fully bearish
TD’ Sequential: Daily G4
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $6,400 | POC over last 5 days = $6,300 | Low volume node > $6,600 with1 month look back.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.77% | 24h =+0.87% | 1w = +3.68% | 2w = -7.43% |1m =-11.81%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is at $6,888 provides great confirmation that we will not break that level of resistance
Trendline: Connects bottom of 7/23 to 8/10
Daily Trend: Choppy
Fractals: Down = $5,870 | Up = $8,300
On Balance Volume: Broke through resistance while price remains in flag
ADX: -DI & +DI are converging while ADX bounces off 25
Chaikin Money Flow: Broke down major support and now looks like it is trying to turn it into resistance.
RSI (30 setting): Supported 40, will it be able to retest 50?
Stoch: %K and %D > 20 | How far will they make it?
Summary: My major concern over the last couple days has been the imbalance between the shorts and longs. Not everyone can make money at once and if everyone is short then…
Over the past week we have been approaching levels that are similar to April 12th when we got a massive short squeeze.
Now it looks like the bears and bulls are finding an equilibrium and that should allow the prevailing wind to break down $6,000 support.
If not in a position then wait for the bear flag to confirm with a breakdown of ~$6,150
1 day:Resist below $6,567 | 1 week: break down $5,750 support | 1 month predictions: <$5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag / descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,567 | S: $6,100 - $6,250
BTCUSDSHORTS:Testing 30,750 for support. If it can create higher low then watch for ath’ retest. 46% long and 54% short..
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0258
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference):
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -7.18% | 128 = -14.45%
Volume: Has been declining over last couple days while price rises.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Wicks from last two days being re explored today. Could provide a favorable r:r entry.
Ichimoku Cloud: fully bearish
TD’ Sequential: Daily G4
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $6,400 | POC over last 5 days = $6,300 | Low volume node > $6,600 with1 month look back.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.77% | 24h =+0.87% | 1w = +3.68% | 2w = -7.43% |1m =-11.81%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is at $6,888 provides great confirmation that we will not break that level of resistance
Trendline: Connects bottom of 7/23 to 8/10
Daily Trend: Choppy
Fractals: Down = $5,870 | Up = $8,300
On Balance Volume: Broke through resistance while price remains in flag
ADX: -DI & +DI are converging while ADX bounces off 25
Chaikin Money Flow: Broke down major support and now looks like it is trying to turn it into resistance.
RSI (30 setting): Supported 40, will it be able to retest 50?
Stoch: %K and %D > 20 | How far will they make it?
Summary: My major concern over the last couple days has been the imbalance between the shorts and longs. Not everyone can make money at once and if everyone is short then…
Over the past week we have been approaching levels that are similar to April 12th when we got a massive short squeeze.
Now it looks like the bears and bulls are finding an equilibrium and that should allow the prevailing wind to break down $6,000 support.
If not in a position then wait for the bear flag to confirm with a breakdown of ~$6,150
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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