Bitcoin Death Cross Scenarios
BTC closed Jan 6th Daily with a bearish engulfing candle, providing indication that selling momentum remains strong.Unable to sustain long-term mid-channel as support, increasing likelihood of 100 EMA falling below the 200 EMA for an impending "death cross" in near future.
Bearish structures continue, double tops, head & shoulders losing neckline support, Lindsay's 3 Peaks & Domed House.
Overall, macroeconomic picture shows markets are overheated with Fed communicating multiple rate hikes are imminent. Market indicators (M2, PPI, CPI, Rev Repo, etc.) clearly reflect bumpy road ahead.
Bitcoin support levels to watch - Going to 38k
Potential to continue downwards for support at:
1. Best Case: 35k
2. Likely Case: 30k
3. Worst Case: 19k
4. Candle wick low for worst case is potential of 112K to 16k
Invalidation scenarios:
1. Unlikely: Continued QE and "stimulus" delaying an overall major market correction
2. Possible: Market sentiment changes and BTC is considered a hedge to protect principal
3. Reversal: Bitcoin Spot ETF or other catalyst causing inflow of new money or broader institutional buy-in.
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