Zoom out, take a look and have a quick read :)
Keeping in mind Bitcoin fundamentals and the plethora of theories and models such as the Lindy Effect, the Parabolic Model from 2014 telling us 100k, Metcalf's Law, S2F and S2FX - which all indicate much higher prices in the near-term and have a track-record of being correct; It is very clear from a market-perspective that we are in a premium as far as adding leveraged longs go.
From the low of 4k back in March to the highs almost tapping 58k - I would look to enter in at a pull-back to areas of a 50% to a 79% retracement (boxed in white) from the low in March to the High recently created - where BTC would enter in a juicy discount for longs. Higher odds for a 50% to 62% than a 70.5% to 79% - though its all on the table.
There are a few reasons to favor this retracement. First obvious observation is that the month of March has been historically red. Maybe it would be different this time around, but given the run up to where are at now, as well as indicators from other markets, I would favor the historical data.
Furthermore to favor a healthy retracement is to check out the Bond markets (5 year, 10 year and 30 year notes) which seem have to made a local bottom and seeking higher prices. And as we know, as Bond prices increase, interest rates decrease and Stocks/Equities can see a correction to the downside - which is showing in the S&P 500. And when moving together, when Stocks/Equities are correcting to the downside, you may see the Dollar Index (DXY) reaching higher - which appears to be the case. And a rise in DXY would affect all assets valued in USD - Bitcoin as no exception.
All in all, this is the train of thought I am supporting and my thesis is to sit on the side-lines as far as trading goes in Bitcoin and observe what is to come in the coming weeks.
I still support DCA Bitcoin as a long-term investment :)
Thanks for the read!
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Shoutout ICT
From the low of 4k back in March to the highs almost tapping 58k - I would look to enter in at a pull-back to areas of a 50% to a 79% retracement (boxed in white) from the low in March to the High recently created - where BTC would enter in a juicy discount for longs. Higher odds for a 50% to 62% than a 70.5% to 79% - though its all on the table.
There are a few reasons to favor this retracement. First obvious observation is that the month of March has been historically red. Maybe it would be different this time around, but given the run up to where are at now, as well as indicators from other markets, I would favor the historical data.
Furthermore to favor a healthy retracement is to check out the Bond markets (5 year, 10 year and 30 year notes) which seem have to made a local bottom and seeking higher prices. And as we know, as Bond prices increase, interest rates decrease and Stocks/Equities can see a correction to the downside - which is showing in the S&P 500. And when moving together, when Stocks/Equities are correcting to the downside, you may see the Dollar Index (DXY) reaching higher - which appears to be the case. And a rise in DXY would affect all assets valued in USD - Bitcoin as no exception.
All in all, this is the train of thought I am supporting and my thesis is to sit on the side-lines as far as trading goes in Bitcoin and observe what is to come in the coming weeks.
I still support DCA Bitcoin as a long-term investment :)
Thanks for the read!
-
-
-
Shoutout ICT
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