BTC 2week trading strategy May 27- June 10
Updated
No-need to hurry to enter the market until current futures contract expiration date on the 30th of May (vertical orange line). Also summer is usually not the best period for breakouts due to holiday season.
Best-case:
BTC price breaks through 69650 intraday resistance level confirming continuation of a short-term trend which started on the 1st of may (short violet dotted line). This trend will continue going upwards to break ATH or at least it will be transformed into a range between 66450 and 70500 before breaking ATH.
Base-case:
There will be a deeper pull-back to 64500, as a consolidation before ATH break. Overall the decline will be temporary and not too deep to break the medium-term trend which started on the 11th of Sep 2023 (long violet dotted line).
Worst-case:
Deeper pull-back to the current key supoprt zone (green rectangle) which will confirm that short-term and medium-term trends are over and the longer consolidation will be needed to break ATH (similiar to summer 2023).
Trading strategy:
Best-case:
BTC price breaks through 69650 intraday resistance level confirming continuation of a short-term trend which started on the 1st of may (short violet dotted line). This trend will continue going upwards to break ATH or at least it will be transformed into a range between 66450 and 70500 before breaking ATH.
Base-case:
There will be a deeper pull-back to 64500, as a consolidation before ATH break. Overall the decline will be temporary and not too deep to break the medium-term trend which started on the 11th of Sep 2023 (long violet dotted line).
Worst-case:
Deeper pull-back to the current key supoprt zone (green rectangle) which will confirm that short-term and medium-term trends are over and the longer consolidation will be needed to break ATH (similiar to summer 2023).
Trading strategy:
- Stop-limit at 69650 for the best-case scenario.
- however entering the market with 1/3 of max risk per trade
- limiting exposure to the worst-case of price locking in medium-term range (56500-72500)
- preserving flexibility to make another entry for base-case in case of a deeper pull-back to 64800, or after ATH break-out at a higher price.
- in case of the worst-case confirmed, reconsider whether it's still reasonable to hold the trade
- stop-loss below 50000 for a black-swan event to protect deposit from margin call. It is highly unlikely that this stop-loss will be trigerred accidently for the coming two weeks.
Order cancelled
See comments on June 8 and June 24 below
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