BTC - bull trap or Wyckoff accumulation ?
Hello all,
Let's go to BTC and see what it is up to lately.
BTC is at horizontal resistance, which is where the big Head and Shoulders pattern has it shoulders formed. As you know, this figure was invalidated back in early July when the leading cryptocurrency made a fakeout that triggered the latest uptrend.
What is more, we are the the 21 EMA, which if it remains above the current price, is a significant bearish signal.
*Daily timeframe
The price action from the last three months most definitely looks like the Wyckoff Accumulation chart (search for Accumulation Schematic #1) and we are in the spring, Phase D.
This means the currently 9 percent pullback will be absorbed and the uptrend will be resumed (green line on our chart)
Now we have a higher high formed and given the solid bullish engulfing candle from yesterday, we would like to see a confirmation that this was just a healthy retrace. BTC needs to form a second consecutive green candle on the daily chart.
The bearish scenario here will be that we see a fakeout in the form of a bull trap and the higher high is invalidated by a full retrace down to the $30,000 zone (red arrow on our chart). This of course does not automatically mean the Wyckoff accumulation is non-existent. In some schematics I reviewed recently, it is clearly visible that there might be one more peak (with a higher high), which is then retraced down to the range low before the real spring occurs.
Regards,
Let's go to BTC and see what it is up to lately.
- Weekly timeframe
BTC is at horizontal resistance, which is where the big Head and Shoulders pattern has it shoulders formed. As you know, this figure was invalidated back in early July when the leading cryptocurrency made a fakeout that triggered the latest uptrend.
What is more, we are the the 21 EMA, which if it remains above the current price, is a significant bearish signal.
*Daily timeframe
The price action from the last three months most definitely looks like the Wyckoff Accumulation chart (search for Accumulation Schematic #1) and we are in the spring, Phase D.
This means the currently 9 percent pullback will be absorbed and the uptrend will be resumed (green line on our chart)
Now we have a higher high formed and given the solid bullish engulfing candle from yesterday, we would like to see a confirmation that this was just a healthy retrace. BTC needs to form a second consecutive green candle on the daily chart.
The bearish scenario here will be that we see a fakeout in the form of a bull trap and the higher high is invalidated by a full retrace down to the $30,000 zone (red arrow on our chart). This of course does not automatically mean the Wyckoff accumulation is non-existent. In some schematics I reviewed recently, it is clearly visible that there might be one more peak (with a higher high), which is then retraced down to the range low before the real spring occurs.
Regards,
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