BTC Pain Train Incoming?
Updated
As mentioned in my previous post, BTC bulls had to make a move this past weekend, which they did, but is it enough? They pushed the price up to around $7150 as shown by the blue arrow. From that point we lost almost the entire weekend's gain in one 4H period.
Since this drop Monday morning there has been some upward consolidation, which I have shown in the blue bear flag (which has terrible flag formation). There is also a descending triangle in orange which is usually a bearish indicator.
My long term MACD chart (that I showed in my last Idea) shows a wedge forming that is driving the MACD below the histogram zero line. This paired with the descending triangle looks like this weekend will be another make or break period for Bitcoin in the short term. The MACD is an indicator and does not always correlate to what will happen, but in this case it is supported by price action as well.
The $6420 to $6520 region seems to be an extremely strong support. It is a long term uptrend as well as the 100% retrace from the $9180 to $6450 price drop we recently underwent. The volume profile indicates this as well, look at how little this volume region is compared to the price points above it. The bulls DO NOT want this price point to break down, doing this will confirm the bear trend is still ongoing and kill market sentiment even more.
My downside target is the same as last weekend, right at $6000. If there is another breakout we could potentially see $7200, but more like to hit ~$7050.
Since this drop Monday morning there has been some upward consolidation, which I have shown in the blue bear flag (which has terrible flag formation). There is also a descending triangle in orange which is usually a bearish indicator.
My long term MACD chart (that I showed in my last Idea) shows a wedge forming that is driving the MACD below the histogram zero line. This paired with the descending triangle looks like this weekend will be another make or break period for Bitcoin in the short term. The MACD is an indicator and does not always correlate to what will happen, but in this case it is supported by price action as well.
The $6420 to $6520 region seems to be an extremely strong support. It is a long term uptrend as well as the 100% retrace from the $9180 to $6450 price drop we recently underwent. The volume profile indicates this as well, look at how little this volume region is compared to the price points above it. The bulls DO NOT want this price point to break down, doing this will confirm the bear trend is still ongoing and kill market sentiment even more.
My downside target is the same as last weekend, right at $6000. If there is another breakout we could potentially see $7200, but more like to hit ~$7050.
Note
BTC had a huge pump a couple of hours ago, but it does not mean we are out of the woods yet. This pump was a massive short squeeze that was solely meant to wreck the record number of shorts against BTC.IF YOU ARE SHORTING, ALWAYS HAVE A STOP LOSS OTHERWISE YOU WILL LOSE YOUR @$$! Margin trading is great, but you can lose it all just as fast as you earn it.
My last idea, I mentioned to short from $6500 to $6000 ONLY based on if there was a confirmed breakdown below the green line. Right now with insane amount of shorts in the market it is easy to be annihilated by any exchange that has large stocks of BTC (which they probably got dirt cheap).
I do not think this is a real bull pump that anyone should buy on, it will probably go right back down in a few hours (possibly days?) of sideways trading. When it drops it will probably drop hard, just like it did on Monday. It might actually be a good time to get a quick short before the dump.
*I am not a financial adviser. Anything that you do with the information that I give and the opinions that I have formed, is your own decision. Trade smart, learn, have fun and be patient!*
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