BTC Crimbo Shakedown
Updated
Well, still waiting for the bottom.
Today's breakdown looks like we are tracking to the original idea from December based on a review of historical market tops. A few idea tweaks have taken place over the past few months to consider possible trajectory but ultimately Target remains 20k area.
The scenario was based on Weekly MA50 interaction. Market Top interaction with the 50 weekly MA has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Bounce on top of 50 WMA
2. Bounce up into 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
We are now at point 3 following a classic 'double tap' of the resistance.
- Expect a move down to 20k region
- points to a prolonged bear market
- ALTs.. plenty of folk warned others about the risk there
I'll note some positive signals in recent days and there are still scenarios that support various Flat Correction scenarios I outlined a few months ago - leaning towards an Expanded Flat Correction. If markets calm and DXY backs off from resistance there may be a rally in a week or so but ultimately I do not expect a reversal and target to be reached.
Best, Hard Forky
Today's breakdown looks like we are tracking to the original idea from December based on a review of historical market tops. A few idea tweaks have taken place over the past few months to consider possible trajectory but ultimately Target remains 20k area.
The scenario was based on Weekly MA50 interaction. Market Top interaction with the 50 weekly MA has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Bounce on top of 50 WMA
2. Bounce up into 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
We are now at point 3 following a classic 'double tap' of the resistance.
- Expect a move down to 20k region
- points to a prolonged bear market
- ALTs.. plenty of folk warned others about the risk there
I'll note some positive signals in recent days and there are still scenarios that support various Flat Correction scenarios I outlined a few months ago - leaning towards an Expanded Flat Correction. If markets calm and DXY backs off from resistance there may be a rally in a week or so but ultimately I do not expect a reversal and target to be reached.
Best, Hard Forky
Note
market taking a battering but the end is in sight 
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