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Bitcoin

"Climbing the Grid: BTC Edition"

By The_ForexX_Mindset
Updated
In this chart, the trendlines are drawn to represent key areas of support and resistance based on price action over time. Here’s how to explain them in simple terms:

1. **Green Trendlines (Support)**:
- These lines are drawn underneath the candlesticks. They show areas where the price found support and moved higher after touching or approaching the line.
- The lower green horizontal line at **89,061.47** represents a strong historical support level, meaning the price previously stopped falling and reversed upward from this area.

2. **Red Trendlines (Resistance)**:
- These lines are drawn above the candlesticks. They represent levels where the price struggled to go higher and reversed downward.
- The upward-sloping red trendline represents a resistance trend where the price is being pushed lower whenever it approaches the line.

3. **Blue Trendline (Broader Trend)**:
- This trendline connects major swing lows over a longer timeframe, showing the general upward momentum of the market.
- It's more of a macro-level line, indicating the long-term bullish direction.

4. **White Trendlines (Neutral or Structural)**:
- These lines form part of the structure, connecting minor pivot points or angles within the trend.
- They give additional context but may not hold as strong as the green and red lines.

5. **Breakout Point (Highlighted with an Arrow)**:
- The red arrow points to an area where the price attempted to break through a resistance level and succeeded, confirming a breakout.
- After breaking past, the price is now approaching **105,346.97**, which could act as a new resistance or continuation level.

In essence:
- **Support lines**: Where the price bounces up.
- **Resistance lines**: Where the price gets rejected.
- The interactions between these lines help predict where the price might go next.
- Bull Flag scenario is likely to unfold
Note
Adding the "Roll the Clip" idea

"Roll the Clip: The Sentiment Trap"
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Liquidity has been reached at $105,346.
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As I’ve stressed out by saying- this only applies for short term traders and long term, that would depend where you bought.

As I’ve mentioned regarding the pump-and-dump pattern on the daily timeframe, from a coding perspective, the pump will conclude when it’s ready. However, my analysis indicates that the dump is drawing closer. Liquidity has already been reached at the designated level of $105,346 which was a red flag in my prospective to even hold this long. My neutral zone was at $103,265 and I wouldn’t have regretted it by exiting at that price as a short term trader. Any price beyond is gamble and then again I’m keeping an eye on my liquidity percentage to help me determine that.

Rockets can’t stay in orbit indefinitely—they need to come back down to refuel and gain momentum for a higher relaunch.

Note
When it comes to altcoins, diligence is key—there’s nothing indicating readiness for alts at the moment. Honestly, I’ve lost count of how many times this has played out. While some alts may offer minimal short-term profits, it’s important to remember that alts often create the illusion of a breakout. In my view, this can mean two things:
1. Retail hype: Excitement fueled by Bitcoin’s pump, which is likely to stall soon.
2. Smart money tactics: Small investments designed to push up fake prices, creating a false sense of bullishness, only to reverse as Bitcoin turns downward during the dump.

I’ve mentioned before that we’re likely setting up for a bull flag scenario before the next leg up.

As for Bitcoin, have you looked at my ADX analysis? What did I say? Bitcoin is bullish, but this bullishness doesn’t align with my risk assessment. Does it align with yours?
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**Bitcoin Battles Relentlessly at $105,346 Hardcore Resistance – A Pivotal Moment Unfolds!**

Bitcoin finds itself locked in a fierce struggle against the unyielding resistance of **$105,346**, a level fortified by **high-pressure pivot points**. This battleground is no ordinary zone—it's where fortunes are decided, and strategies are tested to their limits.

Looming above, the ominous **dual equal wick level at $105,945.21** casts a shadow of uncertainty. This level hints at a potential decline in price action, yet the specter of rejection looms large, daring the market to push higher. **Dark Pools**, those shadowy havens of institutional traders, have disrupted the volume thresholds by driving prices higher. The question on every trader's mind now is:

**Will Bitcoin stay locked in the grid of resistance, or is a catastrophic dump imminent?**

If you’re betting on Bitcoin breaking through and moving higher, **kudos to your bullish foresight.** Your analysis might be right on target. But don’t get too comfortable—there’s a storm brewing, and here’s the twist that could upend your predictions.

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### **The Takeaway – A Warning from the Depths of the Market**

Remember my infamous **"daily pump and dump" pattern?** I've delved into the **23-hour timeframe**, and the findings are chilling. **Whales and Dark Pools**—the invisible hands manipulating the market—are the culprits behind the recent spike. And now, they've signaled their next move: the **dump phase**.

The timeline is crystal clear: **sometime after the 23-hour mark**, the dump is set to commence, aligning with the conclusion of the **daily timeframe scenario dump.**

The question is not *if* Bitcoin will face this reckoning, but *when*. Will you stand ready to adapt, or will the wave catch you off guard? The market waits for no one. Buckle up—things are about to get dramatic.
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I'm accelerating my process to identify fresh pivot points, striving to determine whether the trend will hold or continue its decline. Mastering the psychological aspect of trading is crucial, and it's where I'm channeling my full focus. This is where the real test begins. In situations like this, we must avoid underestimating ourselves or lingering in doubt; instead, we need to seek actionable solutions—something I'm still working toward. While the analysis may be clear, the real question remains: will a trader sell now, only to watch the price surge higher later?
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Short-Term Traders

Here’s the thing: Bitcoin is primed for a correction—that’s how the cards are reading. However, while a correction may be coming, the drop might not be as severe as expected.

What have I said before about technical analysis (TA) making shifts? TA updates hourly, and from a short-term trader’s perspective, I’ll repeat what I said today—I would have had no regrets cashing out at $103,265. That was a natural zone, and looking back to when Bitcoin was around 97K, I mentioned a pump and dump. Even then, I would’ve remained out of the trade due to caution, regardless of how bullish the charts looked. My risk tolerance flagged red, and it still does.

In this kind of market, staying in a trade only makes sense for a trader buying at very low levels. You might think I missed out, but the answer is no. I’ve learned from my mistakes and come to respect risk management above all else. Risk management is the most valuable tool a trader can have.

Even as the dump seems delayed, I believe it’s still very likely to happen soon—but I can’t say for certain, as the pump might not be over yet. The trendlines I’ve drawn held firm, and my TA pivots have stayed aligned since yesterday. Today, I added a few extra trendlines for further clarity.

As of now, I’ve developed a 3-strategy candlestick model that reveals key data points I’m still testing. It combines four key candlestick body signals, giving insights into the next potential move. While the overall price action remains bullish, the candlesticks suggest price sustainability for now. If Bitcoin can sustain its level for a while, altcoins could see an increase.

This is my first analysis based on connecting pivots, and it has revealed today’s market story—and it continues to do so.

What I said before still stands: I’m preparing for the bear market. All the market manipulation we’ve seen has actually been a great teacher, helping me refine my strategies and test them in crucial moments.

Soon, I’ll be creating a liquidity-based idea, aiming to explain how it works. I don’t plan to say much—my liquidity tool will speak for itself. Updates for ETH and BTC will follow.

The rules for my liquidity strategy will be laid out clearly. It will auto-update on a consistent basis as price moves, providing real-time insights. Stay tuned for more updates!
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In about an hour, I’ll showcase dark pool activity on the 23-hour timeframe, which finally indicates that a dump is on the horizon. Looking back at the histogram, the picture becomes crystal clear.

I’m simply presenting what the data suggests is likely to happen. I’m not saying it’s happening right now—that’s for you to decide. However, as a short-term trader, I’ve already made my decision, and to me, it’s a no-brainer.
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As we all know, it’s important to keep an eye on BTC.D. As long as its value continues to move positively, Bitcoin can retain much of its value. However, this also depends on USDT.D, which isn’t showing aggressive upward movement.

My candlestick strategy has been indicating weakness in USDT.D, suggesting the possibility that it might continue pushing downward, though this remains uncertain. While USDT.D is showing some positive momentum (which typically signals crypto devaluation), BTC.D’s strength helps to offset a major downside for now.

That said, this does not rule out the pending dump. Stay vigilant and keep your guard up.
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Real-time updates headed our way for a few hours. Also, I’ve noticed that when altcoins are gearing up to move higher, Bitcoin and Ethereum often start to move down or lose momentum. This happens because money in the crypto market tends to rotate. Since Bitcoin and Ethereum are the biggest players, when they slow down or pull back, investors often move their funds into altcoins, looking for bigger returns.

It’s kind of like a domino effect: as Bitcoin and Ethereum calm down, people feel more confident taking risks with smaller coins. This shifts the market’s focus, and you’ll see altcoins gaining strength. Sometimes it’s also about market dominance—when Bitcoin or Ethereum’s share of the total market goes down, it often means money is flowing into altcoins.

But this doesn’t always mean altcoins will go up. If Bitcoin or Ethereum drop too hard, it can create fear and pull the whole market down. So, it really depends on how the market is behaving overall.
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If USDT.D is showing bearish signals, it suggests there may be less demand for Tether (USDT) relative to the overall crypto market. This could indicate that traders are moving out of stablecoins and back into riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. If this trend continues, it could lead to upward pressure on crypto prices as capital flows back into the market.
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This might be a bear trap.
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On the one-day timeframe, my candlestick chart shows a lower wick by 9.58%. This could indicate the bullish bull is hidden behind the scenes before its released again. This will take some time to play out.
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For now, I remain unfazed. My calculations suggest Bitcoin's price is stable in the near term, with my long lower shadow wick signaling a potential uptrend or at least stabilization for the moment. I’ll continue monitoring the situation as time permits, and I see signs of upward momentum despite Bitcoin currently sitting in the red zone.

When the time is right, the anticipated dump will likely run its course. Let this serve as a reminder: even in the face of short-term declines, I’m confident in the larger trend. The weekly and bi-weekly stochastic RSI have both made a bullish crossover—a strong signal that Bitcoin is primed for a higher climb. However, for this move to materialize fully, both timeframes must sustain their bullish crossover, which they currently do.

It’s worth noting that warnings of a potential dump have loomed for almost a week, with my risk management indicators flashing red and lower timeframes showing signs of being liquidity-saturated. On top of that, dark pool activity confirms a dump from the 23-hour timeframe. Interestingly, I have two dark pool setups—one signaling bullishness and the other indicating a dump—which explains the delay in the sell-off.

For now, we wait. Patience will reveal the outcome. I don't want to overwhelm you with too much to say.

Should a market correction occur, it's within expectations, as such adjustments have been anticipated
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On the current daily timeframe, the candlestick body shows a green increase of 3.40% and a red decrease of 0.66% when combined. However, when I remove the 3.40% green body from the equation, I see a plotted long lower wick extending to 9.58%.

When looking at the original candlestick chart, the daily timeframe is forming a bearish harami pattern. This pattern often signals a potential reversal, which can prompt traders to sell. However, here’s the critical point: the price may not actually fall.

The “moment of truth” lies with the bigger players—those who understand the market’s deeper movements. They likely have bullish intentions that are not immediately apparent on the surface, using patterns like this to mislead retail traders into selling while they prepare for the next move.

This highlights the importance of reading the market beyond surface-level signals and being aware of how major players may manipulate sentiment to their advantage.
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So far, my analysis has remained supportive, even in the face of Bitcoin’s pending dump. For those who haven’t entered Bitcoin or Ethereum trades yet, my advice is to stay cautious. Regardless of Bitcoin reading as bullish, buying at these levels means buying high.

How would I approach this?
I’d wait for the dump to fully play out and see how low the price drops. Only then would I consider entering a position. As of now, Bitcoin appears exhausted. I’m not concerned with how bullish it might look on the surface—it’s on the verge of a dump that could happen at any moment. This threat has been confirmed in my analysis, and I see it clearly.

I’m not leaning entirely bearish or bullish. My goal is to assist those currently in the trade as much as possible.
—-Bearish Case: The dump threat is evident on both the daily and weekly timeframes.
—-Bullish Case: While the TA does show bullish signals, it doesn’t rule out the possibility of a dump.

It’s rare for dump signals like this to appear, so they shouldn’t be ignored.

Let me clarify something I’ve said before: Bitcoin is preparing for its next leg up. When I refer to a “dump,” I don’t mean a market crash. A dump is simply part of the market cycle and is necessary for Bitcoin to recharge and continue its upward momentum.

The idea that crypto is only headed “to the moon” is unrealistic. The market moves in cycles, and as traders, we must face the facts and adjust to what comes next. Being prepared and adapting is key to long-term success.
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I regret setting a stop at $105,346.97—once it breaks, it’s Primetime!
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To Traders Around the Globe:

I want to share an important note. While many remain firmly bullish, which is absolutely your right, I am exercising caution, particularly for short-term traders. Long-term traders are in a safer position, but for those navigating the short-term, prudence is key.

Let me be clear: if my analysis points to bearishness, I will stick to that outlook until the trend itself paints a different path. While many hold onto their trades, it’s wise for short-term traders to reconsider their positions if the trend appears to be heading south. This is where the importance of stop-loss orders comes in—to secure your profits and protect against unexpected moves.

Prices update hourly, and my auto trendline pivots have flagged potential dangers. I’ve also developed a custom indicator that goes beyond traditional support and resistance, plotting deeper, more insightful bullish and bearish zones. It operates differently from the commonly known smart money order blocks, as I’ve intentionally misaligned it from their framework. While Bitcoin may appear to be moving upward, my risk assessments are signaling higher levels of potential danger than before.

Now, here’s the thing: psychological patterns play a significant role alongside technical analysis (TA). Smart money is deeply embedded in retail psychology, and from what I can observe through scalping price movements—without even analyzing buy and sell volumes—retail traders have maintained an aggressive buying stance. Very few have sold, and those who did, played it safe.

Smart money often plays the game of trying to spark panic selling among retail traders. So far, that hasn’t happened.

In just a few minutes, I’ll dive into the topic of auto trading bots—how they control the odds against us, regardless of whether the trend appears bearish or bullish. Stay tuned.
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"While I'm still backtesting my combined USDT.D and Bitcoin candlestick model, it continues to read green. Based on this, I'm inclined to conclude that we might be seeing a bear trap."
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These are the classic retail shakeout moments for short-term traders. Across the globe, you can almost hear the debates and frustrations:
'Get out now!'
'Why did you even enter this trade?'
'I told you so!'
'We’re losing our hard-earned money!'
Stress and panic are setting in.
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Let me explain this in simpler terms,

What we’re dealing with here are **market-stabilizing bots**—basically automated programs that keep the market from going off the rails, even during the most volatile times. These bots are run by market makers or big institutions, and their job is to make sure there’s always activity in the market. They balance things out and help the market stay profitable no matter what’s going on.

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**How These Bots Work to Counter Market Odds**

1. **Keeping Liquidity Alive**
These bots are constantly placing buy and sell orders. They don’t care which way the market is going—they’re just there to keep trades happening. This helps prevent big price collapses and ensures there’s always someone to trade with.

2. **Taking Advantage of Price Differences**
Some bots look for price differences between exchanges. If Bitcoin is cheaper on one exchange and more expensive on another, these bots buy low and sell high to balance things out and keep prices stable.

3. **Smoothing Out Big Moves**
When the market is crashing, these bots jump in to buy and slow the drop. When it’s spiking too fast, they start selling to cool things down. They’re like the brakes on a speeding car, making sure the market doesn’t lose control.

4. **Protecting Big Players**
Institutions use bots to reduce their risks. For example, they might sell futures contracts to cover potential losses or buy options as insurance if things go south.

5. **Private Trades in Dark Pools**
In private markets called **dark pools**, bots handle huge trades without causing wild price swings in public markets. This keeps things calmer overall.

6. **Exchange-Controlled Bots**
Some exchanges run their own bots to keep trading active and prevent sudden gaps in price, especially for less popular trading pairs.

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**Why These Bots Are Important**

1. **Preventing Chaos**
If these bots weren’t there, panic selling or crazy buying could send the market spiraling out of control.

2. **Ensuring Profits Keep Flowing**
Bots make sure trades are always happening, which allows exchanges to collect fees no matter what’s going on.

3. **Helping Institutions Stay Stable**
Big players rely on bots to execute their huge trades without messing up the market for everyone else.

4. **Keeping Retail Traders in the Game**
If the market were too wild, it would scare off smaller traders. These bots help make things a little more predictable.

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**The Downsides**

Now, here’s the catch:

1. **Market Manipulation**
These bots can create fake movements in the market, making it harder for smaller traders to compete.

2. **Unfair Speed**
Bots execute trades way faster than humans, so they always have the upper hand.

3. **Hidden Operations**
A lot of what these bots do is behind the scenes, so it’s hard to know if the market is really fair.

---

In simple terms, these bots keep the market running and profitable, but they also work against us as retail traders. They’re one of the reasons the market doesn’t crash, but at the same time, they make it harder for us to win.

If anyone wants to dive deeper into how these bots work or how to handle them, let me know!
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Price reads to recover to $103,035 according to my ATR dynamics.
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I’ll be providing frequent updates, understanding that some of us need quick, real-time insights to determine where the market is headed. I will do my best.
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Price target reached at $103,035 as determined by my ATR dynamics percentage calculations.
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This is a real-time update: On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is currently moving downwards to the pivot zone at $100,933.
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During moments like these, you’ll hear claims everywhere that crypto is crashing—don’t believe them outright. First, take the time to evaluate these traders by observing how they react to price movements.

Here’s a scenario: if a trader is silent most of the time but suddenly starts claiming that Bitcoin is crashing as soon as it moves downward, be cautious. These types of traders react purely to the current direction of Bitcoin, which raises red flags. This behavior reflects impulsive decision-making driven by emotions, not careful analysis.
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Price target reached at the pivot zone of $100,933
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Possible pivot forecast to $99,870.
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Pivot forecast target reached $99,870.
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"For now, I’m holding $99,826 as the pivot swing low."
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I’m adjusting the pivot low to $99,328, which aligns with a dual lower wick low and represents an institutional price level. However, be advised—the price is likely to drop as low as $94,857, surpassing the $99,328 pivot low, based on my candlestick patterns and the threat from USDT.D. Even if Bitcoin appears to be gaining momentum, don’t rely on it.

I’ve dedicated countless hours and weeks to developing the right formula to counter these auto-bots and institutional strategies across the globe and I'm still in development process.

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