Sept 2
Overview:
Labor Day is over, and yesterday the bulls came out strong, pushing
BTCUSD back into its trading range, above the 58.4k level. But whose bulls were they—American or Asian? Volume data from Coinbase shows 4.3k for the BTC/USD pair, compared to 10.7k, 8.5k, and 12.1k over the last three Mondays. These numbers are much higher than those for the BTC/USDT pair, indicating it wasn't American bulls who saved the day. On the other hand, Binance reports higher numbers for the BTC/USDT pair, with 23k, 19.4k, 22.8k, and 37.0k for the last three Mondays.
Two lessons learned:
1. Check the provider of your chart data and what pair you are analyzing, especially if you're tracking volume or any volume-related indicators such as Volume-Weighted Average Price, volume profile, footprint, cumulative volume delta, etc.
2. The U.S. market honors workdays. Asian bulls came in strong and overpowered the bears.
W: Back to the old trading range. Neutral.
D: Under BB MA. Possible fake breakout (or fake recovery due to the U.S. holiday?). We'll find out today when the U.S. market opens in a couple of hours.
4h: It was the 5th attempt to break the BB MA, and it succeeded. Now we're at the top of the BB channel, above the most recent high but stalling at the next one, near the point of control. Neutral.
1h: MACD divergence is starting to appear. Bearish.
Alts relative to BTC: Altcoin weakness compared to BTC continues to widen. BTC returned to its trading range, and on the daily chart, it looks like a bear trap. However, for major altcoins like
ETHUSD, 
SOLUSD, and 
SUIUSD, their previous levels have become resistance. Neutral on BTC, bearish on altcoins.
Bull case: Since we're holding the weekly range and a bear trend isn't confirmed (at least in the short term), stay bullish.
Bear case: Altcoins are weaker, volume is low due to Labor Day, so Asian bulls were pushing up in a less liquid market.
Fear and Greed Index: 46.78. Up a couple of points. Neutral.
Prediction: The Fed has been revising many data points downward, indicating they might not fully understand what's happening, leading to a lack of trust in their estimates. This week's jobs data might come out much lower, which, combined with other factors, could crash the market. However, before that, we still have a full day of trading during which BTC might trade higher.
Labor Day is over, and yesterday the bulls came out strong, pushing
BTCUSD back into its trading range, above the 58.4k level. But whose bulls were they—American or Asian? Volume data from Coinbase shows 4.3k for the BTC/USD pair, compared to 10.7k, 8.5k, and 12.1k over the last three Mondays. These numbers are much higher than those for the BTC/USDT pair, indicating it wasn't American bulls who saved the day. On the other hand, Binance reports higher numbers for the BTC/USDT pair, with 23k, 19.4k, 22.8k, and 37.0k for the last three Mondays.Two lessons learned:
1. Check the provider of your chart data and what pair you are analyzing, especially if you're tracking volume or any volume-related indicators such as Volume-Weighted Average Price, volume profile, footprint, cumulative volume delta, etc.
2. The U.S. market honors workdays. Asian bulls came in strong and overpowered the bears.
W: Back to the old trading range. Neutral.
D: Under BB MA. Possible fake breakout (or fake recovery due to the U.S. holiday?). We'll find out today when the U.S. market opens in a couple of hours.
4h: It was the 5th attempt to break the BB MA, and it succeeded. Now we're at the top of the BB channel, above the most recent high but stalling at the next one, near the point of control. Neutral.
1h: MACD divergence is starting to appear. Bearish.
Alts relative to BTC: Altcoin weakness compared to BTC continues to widen. BTC returned to its trading range, and on the daily chart, it looks like a bear trap. However, for major altcoins like
ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and SUIUSD, their previous levels have become resistance. Neutral on BTC, bearish on altcoins.Bull case: Since we're holding the weekly range and a bear trend isn't confirmed (at least in the short term), stay bullish.
Bear case: Altcoins are weaker, volume is low due to Labor Day, so Asian bulls were pushing up in a less liquid market.
Fear and Greed Index: 46.78. Up a couple of points. Neutral.
Prediction: The Fed has been revising many data points downward, indicating they might not fully understand what's happening, leading to a lack of trust in their estimates. This week's jobs data might come out much lower, which, combined with other factors, could crash the market. However, before that, we still have a full day of trading during which BTC might trade higher.
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