BTCUSD D BITFINEX
Calm my good followers. Profit taking is a good thing in a market, and perhaps a sign of some maturity coming to the still comparatively new BTC Market.
So yesterday after our very BULLISH 4 H close above the channel, we had a Daily close below. As my old trading mentor used to say, In trading the longer the Stronger, so Daily failure trumps 4H success. Unfortunately, I was flying during all this yesterday and couldn’t update.
The Daily failure was more a failure of expectation, than reality. A test and consolidation round these levels has always been likely, and the 4 H success a bit of a surprise to come so soon. Once we had that failure something NEW happened to BTC IMHO. We had a bearish signal at the top of an extended move and some traders who had made some money on this aggressive trip up decided to bank some profits. Failing to do so hurt many of them in the last couple of months and a lesson may well have been learnt here. If it has then this market will become more technical, and even EASIER for the skilled trader to profit from.
For many of our follower’s targets had been hit, Stop losses moved up as per our updates and the pullback saw positions closed banking profits not losses. This was no disaster, this was an orderly banking of money earnt on the way up. That is how trading works.
So how do we know if this is a pullback or of we are going back down to set a new low (something badly missing from our chart). Well we watch the chart, its not hard and all through our early analysis. We have talked about the range between 12 k and either 10 k, or the 200EMA. So now we watch our charts and we watch our levels.
Price is currently testing the lows of 2/3 days ago. We will watch this level for a bounce, but really the key level is 10K (9976). If we get a close below that on a 4h Chart or especially a D chart we need to be very cautious. But if we get a bounce there a new test of the Channel and then 12k (11700) is likely. I am going to spend a lot of extra time in front of my charts in the next few days. Not just to make money but because I now have followers and I want to keep you up to date. If we get a break below our level, I will update here and keep you informed. Relax a bit you are in the safe hands of Dollars and Senses.
BTC remains a very emotional chart with big moves as the opinions of the general public bounce around like Donald Trumps Hair piece. Its fuelled by a combination of extreme Greed and Fear, and a lot of over hyped analysis in both directions. It’s the toughest part of trading but our job is to put our open trade positions to one side, step outside the hype and read our charts. Those that can do that make great wealth, and those that cannot blame everything else in the world.
If your newish to this, the next few days could well be a big learning time. Look after your risk, watch and let the charts lead and educate us.
That education, if learnt properly will be worth more Dollars and Senses than you can ever know.
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.