We're not in a Bull Run just yet!
Updated
The moon boys have been celebrating the running of the bulls that lasted 5 days that took us from 9.5k to 10.8k. They think this party has to continue. But don't pop your Champagne corks just yet.
5 days of green candles do not make a bull trend, especially after the 2 months of bears we've been dodging. We still haven't broken out of the descending pitchfork channel so I we are still technically in the woods and we may find another bear or two lurking around the next tree, so be careful.
I added a Gaussian Channel to the chart and it turned RED this week for the first time since the bull run started in February of this year. This looks a bit ominous but is likely due to it being a lag indicator.
Note: If I change the Gaussian Channel properties to "Fast Response Mode" then there is more noise in the Gaussian Channel where it often switches back and forth between and red, and this will turn it green for today. I left the "Fast Response Mode" turned off because it worked really well in the past in picking bull trends. The indicator has a delay and I only use it for trading if I have other indicators confirming the trend. I might use a bullish MACD or a bullish RSI signal for a long trade only when the Gaussian Channel is green. And I would only enter a short trade if the Gaussian Channel is red and the RSI or MACD indicators confirm a bearish signal. The Gaussian Channel also works on 4 hour charts too!
To get the bull run under way the price needs to break out of the Pitchfork Channel and stay out of it. (We need to expect a false breakout where it drops back into the channel.) We are close to breaking out of the pitchfork channel and only need to exceed 11.2k to get the champagne corks popping and the moon boys will be howling at the moon all night long. But if you look at the Pitchfork Channel, you will see we have 4 lower highs indicating we are still in a downtrend. Thankfully the lows are all around 9.5k so we don't have descending lows. All of the lows just happen to be at 0.382 Fib Line which it has been using for support. This forms a descending wedge and this type of formation usually, but not always, breaks to the downside. The moon boys have assured me it will be different this time. Let's hope they are right. We should know by Monday which direction we are headed.
Don't forget to hit the Like button on your way out.
5 days of green candles do not make a bull trend, especially after the 2 months of bears we've been dodging. We still haven't broken out of the descending pitchfork channel so I we are still technically in the woods and we may find another bear or two lurking around the next tree, so be careful.
I added a Gaussian Channel to the chart and it turned RED this week for the first time since the bull run started in February of this year. This looks a bit ominous but is likely due to it being a lag indicator.
Note: If I change the Gaussian Channel properties to "Fast Response Mode" then there is more noise in the Gaussian Channel where it often switches back and forth between and red, and this will turn it green for today. I left the "Fast Response Mode" turned off because it worked really well in the past in picking bull trends. The indicator has a delay and I only use it for trading if I have other indicators confirming the trend. I might use a bullish MACD or a bullish RSI signal for a long trade only when the Gaussian Channel is green. And I would only enter a short trade if the Gaussian Channel is red and the RSI or MACD indicators confirm a bearish signal. The Gaussian Channel also works on 4 hour charts too!
To get the bull run under way the price needs to break out of the Pitchfork Channel and stay out of it. (We need to expect a false breakout where it drops back into the channel.) We are close to breaking out of the pitchfork channel and only need to exceed 11.2k to get the champagne corks popping and the moon boys will be howling at the moon all night long. But if you look at the Pitchfork Channel, you will see we have 4 lower highs indicating we are still in a downtrend. Thankfully the lows are all around 9.5k so we don't have descending lows. All of the lows just happen to be at 0.382 Fib Line which it has been using for support. This forms a descending wedge and this type of formation usually, but not always, breaks to the downside. The moon boys have assured me it will be different this time. Let's hope they are right. We should know by Monday which direction we are headed.
Don't forget to hit the Like button on your way out.
Note
Here is another Gaussian Channel applied to my Sept 2nd post that used an hourly chart. It correctly identified the bottom of the trend and would have taken us from 9.5k up to 10.5k. Not bad, eh?
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