** short term analysis, the days ahead **
Short version: Very positive.
Long version:
The Death Cross prints tomorrow, April 7th, 2025. For many retail traders who use moving averages the read will be highly negative. However history tells us that is rarely true.
What is a death cross?
1. The 50 day SMA (Simple Moving Average - blue line) crosses down the 200 day SMA.
and
2. Price action is under the 200 day SMA.
Over the years variations of this post have been made by Ww.. perhaps you remember?
The dotted line is the forecast direction of price action using the Box-Jenkins approach.
investopedia.com/terms/b/box-jenkins-model.asp
Why positive?
Look left - Past Bearish crosses on the daily chart (whilst in a confirmed bull market, which remains true, crosses in a bear market are ignored.)
August 2024, 100% rally after death cross
September 2023, 190% rally after death cross
March 2020, 600% rally after death cross
Is it possible this time is different? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Short version: Very positive.
Long version:
The Death Cross prints tomorrow, April 7th, 2025. For many retail traders who use moving averages the read will be highly negative. However history tells us that is rarely true.
What is a death cross?
1. The 50 day SMA (Simple Moving Average - blue line) crosses down the 200 day SMA.
and
2. Price action is under the 200 day SMA.
Over the years variations of this post have been made by Ww.. perhaps you remember?
The dotted line is the forecast direction of price action using the Box-Jenkins approach.
investopedia.com/terms/b/box-jenkins-model.asp
Why positive?
Look left - Past Bearish crosses on the daily chart (whilst in a confirmed bull market, which remains true, crosses in a bear market are ignored.)
August 2024, 100% rally after death cross
September 2023, 190% rally after death cross
March 2020, 600% rally after death cross
Is it possible this time is different? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Trade active
Today is an opportunity we've not seen since the Covid crash, ignore your emotions.Note
Like clockwork the bottom of the crypto rout is almost if not already over on the death cross.The next upward move will be the last of this bull market.
Retail traders have mostly capitulated, or been liquidated, which signals a green light to the remainder. Enjoy.
Trade closed: target reached
Point made... Death cross = opening long positions at $77k when the rest of the market was in full panic.Now you remember what was said about the Nasdaq 100 idea?
Off to the make a cuppa..
Note
Have you noticed what other indexes have printed a death cross?Get ready for the melt up!
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.