Here in the chart, we can see each Bull Run Cycle since 2013. Now right away you will notice a large proportional difference between each cycle, especially the most recent one. This cycle would be the smallest in scale and length of time. If we look at each Bull Run statistically;
~Bull Run 385 Days
~Bull Run 567 Days
~Bull Run 273 Days
First I want to dive further into where we are at current day so we can gauge the situation as a whole and come back to why I believe this situation is so unique. It has now been roughly 100 days since BTC has hit a new All-Time High; it has never in the history of Bitcoin corrected for this long in a Bull Run and made New All-Time highs the same year.
Here is BTC on the Daily time frame where you can see it has decisively broken down from this trendline.
This is a look at the 3-week chart on BTC where it shows a decisive Bearish Cross on the MACD. It has only done this 3 times in its history and the previous 2 times it has signaled a Bear Market. We can also see volume is incredibly low, even though judging by the MACD this downtrend has been a strong one.
Furthermore, BTC has broken down from key levels on the RSI and the Stoch, which all previous times it has broken this level it has entered a Bear Market.
It is not only BTC that has broken keys levels, we can also see this in the Total Market Cap. We see a breakdown of the trend line and the RSI has fallen below the red line which indicates Bearish momentum.
This can be seen in Total 2 as well.
Now, this is where the situation becomes especially unique when looking at the chart showing the ratio of Bitcoin price to the S&P 500 index. We can see yet another breakdown of this key level and this is arguably the most important of them all.
Historically Buying BTC near this green trendline would yield better returns in comparison if you were to enter the SPX around the same time. Bitcoin has been in healthy competition with the SPX and has given investors great yields which in turn kept the cycles going. If Bitcoin Fails to break back above this green trend line permanent damage may be done psychologically. The perspective of Bitcoin will change.
Short squeeze after short squeeze from the Meme stocks in the stock market, rallying a huge new inflow of first-time investors. This spilled heavy onto the crypto market and crypto steadily became a social media trend. This has led to rapid greed across the market and has blown this bubble into what it is today. With bubbly markets, come an immense amount of leverage and with BTC/Crypto we see just that.
With Covid bringing the world to its knees, it's no question we are in a unique situation across a great many things. Inflation concerns, food shortages, odd treasury movements, used cars being equal in value to new ones, 10+ Trillion injected into the economy and 6 Trillion more on the way, foreign tensions, Global Warming, the list can go on and on really.
We are in very uncertain times and if you find yourself being certain about anything; you should question it and question it again. You have to adapt, overcome, and perceiver. I hope this analysis helped give a better perspective of the situation and hopefully gave some insight. I wish you all the best and please give your feedback in the comments,
Thank you!
~Bull Run 385 Days
~Bull Run 567 Days
~Bull Run 273 Days
First I want to dive further into where we are at current day so we can gauge the situation as a whole and come back to why I believe this situation is so unique. It has now been roughly 100 days since BTC has hit a new All-Time High; it has never in the history of Bitcoin corrected for this long in a Bull Run and made New All-Time highs the same year.
Here is BTC on the Daily time frame where you can see it has decisively broken down from this trendline.
This is a look at the 3-week chart on BTC where it shows a decisive Bearish Cross on the MACD. It has only done this 3 times in its history and the previous 2 times it has signaled a Bear Market. We can also see volume is incredibly low, even though judging by the MACD this downtrend has been a strong one.
Furthermore, BTC has broken down from key levels on the RSI and the Stoch, which all previous times it has broken this level it has entered a Bear Market.
It is not only BTC that has broken keys levels, we can also see this in the Total Market Cap. We see a breakdown of the trend line and the RSI has fallen below the red line which indicates Bearish momentum.
This can be seen in Total 2 as well.
Now, this is where the situation becomes especially unique when looking at the chart showing the ratio of Bitcoin price to the S&P 500 index. We can see yet another breakdown of this key level and this is arguably the most important of them all.
Historically Buying BTC near this green trendline would yield better returns in comparison if you were to enter the SPX around the same time. Bitcoin has been in healthy competition with the SPX and has given investors great yields which in turn kept the cycles going. If Bitcoin Fails to break back above this green trend line permanent damage may be done psychologically. The perspective of Bitcoin will change.
Short squeeze after short squeeze from the Meme stocks in the stock market, rallying a huge new inflow of first-time investors. This spilled heavy onto the crypto market and crypto steadily became a social media trend. This has led to rapid greed across the market and has blown this bubble into what it is today. With bubbly markets, come an immense amount of leverage and with BTC/Crypto we see just that.
With Covid bringing the world to its knees, it's no question we are in a unique situation across a great many things. Inflation concerns, food shortages, odd treasury movements, used cars being equal in value to new ones, 10+ Trillion injected into the economy and 6 Trillion more on the way, foreign tensions, Global Warming, the list can go on and on really.
We are in very uncertain times and if you find yourself being certain about anything; you should question it and question it again. You have to adapt, overcome, and perceiver. I hope this analysis helped give a better perspective of the situation and hopefully gave some insight. I wish you all the best and please give your feedback in the comments,
Thank you!
Note
We have seen a retest of the BTC/SPX green trend line and for now, it is facing resistance. If it fails to break above this level downward pressure will pick up significantly.This also can be seen on the Total as well.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.