Long

Updated

Bitcoin to $31k - bullish divergence

** This is a short term forecast, i.e. next few weeks. **

On the above 5-day chart price action has corrected 60% ever since encountering the downtrend resistance. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:

1) A strong buy signal prints (not shown).

2) Price action, RSI , MFI (not shown) resistance breakouts.

3) Bullish engulfing candle prints following the back test of past resistance as support - very bullish .

4) Double bottom bullish divergence . Price action prints a classic double bottom pattern with higher lows in the oscillators.

5) The Hash Ribbon ‘Buy’ signal just printed on the 4-day chart recently. Have been quietly waiting for this following the print on the daily chart . (4-day chart below).

6) Point no. 5 occurs as price action prints a bullish divergence on the lower log growth curve (4-day chart below).

Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.

Is it probable? No

Ww

Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: a few weeks
Return: 47%

Hash Ribbon on 4-day

Note

Consider this,:

News events on market tops (all this in Nov/Dec 2021)
1) Elon is buying Bitcoin
2) Micheal Saylor say's 'Mortgage your house to buy more Bitcoin' at $50k
3) Crypto bros on Youtube @ $60k, Bitcoin going to $250k !!
4) Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction
5) El Salvador to use bitcoin as legal tender

News events at market bottoms (last few months):
1) Stable coin failure
2) Voyager and Celsius exchanges go bankrupt after lending to Garage band hedge fund.
3) FED raising rates to infinity and beyond to temper rising inflation!
4) SEC is going to ban everything
5) China. Enough said.

I could go on and on. Suffice to say, 90% of market participants use those events to define their investment strategy. All the do is lose money as fast as the rain water flows down the drain.

Be the 5%.

Note

The trend continues to print lower highs lower lows. The first indication of a trend change comes with divergence, as alluded to in the above idea. The second part comes with a higher low.

Why do higher lows print? They occur when net buyers exceeds net sellers. It is worth noting throughout Bitcoin's price action history the golden pocket in a uptrend has continually identified when net buyer numbers exceed sellers.

Note

The current sell off is arrested at $19.5k, just as the 5 previous times before it. Beautiful accumulation.

Note

** Highest number of bullish divergencies in Bitcoin’s price action history prints **

A huge move in price action is about to occur, circa 50%. It will take the market by complete surprise. But not you.

On the 3-day chart below the number of oscillators printing bullish divergence with price action hits ‘5’ for the first time ever. Those divergencies are measured over a 30 day period.

Trade active

Now would be excellent moment.

Note

I see 'Crypto bros' all over Social media are calling for , $7k - all super bearish. Even here on Tradingview, a lot of bearish ideas at the moment. Will they be correct?

Trade active

$18.8k and above makes for a good entry point before the positive inflation report comes out later this week.

Note

Can you see the falling wedge on the 2-day chart below printing bullish divergence with RSI?

If you're having a panic, zoom out and have no doubt. Let the sellers capitulate. The weeks ahead will see price action achieve the target.

Trade active

As before, a long entry from $18.8k is amazing. The same 5-day chart as was originally published continues to forecast a monster upside move.

Trade active

Trading 101, what is the trend?
It is official. On the daily chart price action has printed a higher high and a higher low. If you're hoping for lower lows to $10k as most of the internet continues to talk about, well that's not going to happen.

Note

Do you see? Price action breaks out of resistance to backtest support as shown on the 5-day chart below.

There's something else. The blue circles. This is the NVT tool. Notice the green line? That green line just crossed up 40. Look left. Capitulations in price action followed by historical volatility printing a cross up 40 in green as in the past was a powerful signal of what the future weeks and months will bring.

Note

** Status on this idea **

What I’m watching. The above 3-day (and 4-day) chart is all the matters. If you see price action above $19k in the coming days it will be the most bullish reverse signal since March 2020.

If price action closes (by mid-November) at current levels, then the bears will get there target, but not below. Look left, there is significant support.

Bottom line, let me re-phrase, price action must recover to the $19k area and close a candle on support. If that happens, this idea is very ‘active’.

So which way is it going to go? Patrons.. keep your eye peeled, update shortly.

Ww

Note

$18.5k next resistance.

Trade active

You bet you this trade is still active and would have already achieved that target were it not for the FTX debacle. Folks are always saying Bitcoin follows the stock market, the S&P 500. Apparently it is okay when it doesn't.

Something to think about, Bitcoin was at when the S&P 500 last found support at 3900.

Note

Significant move soonish. Before month end.

Note

Did I say 'end of month'?!

I think it is interesting to see the dollar sell off so hard and Bitcoin price action not budge an inch. Just shows you how fearful the market is. The last time the dollar index was at 104 Bitcoin price action was over $30k.

Even still, I do continue to expect a hard upside move in the near term. The daily noise and sideways price action is as exhausting as it is boring.

10-day chart (DXY above / Bitcoin below)

8hr chart Bitcoin / USD

Note

Price action on the 10hr is squeezing between the GRM and 21-day SMA. A significant move should be expected by the time those two cross.

10hr

Note

As expected, a significant move has occurred. Look out for possible support around 17.5k, although by no means certain.

Note

Following the rejection of the failed $17.5k support price action went back down to past resistance around $16.5k, now testing as support.

A strong buy signal is about to print. If you're a patron, put the alarm on and wait for a print.

4hr

Trade active

A long from $17.4k would be the best. Be patient.

Note

The long from $17k was spot on. The calls for lower lows continue, many seem obsessed with the idea of lower lows to $10k and below. Folks, this is not going to happen.

Price action on the daily is currently overbought. Price action should be expected to bounce between $21-23k. However it is worth noting the majority of sellers according to Glassnode are those that bought recently from the recent lows. Any selling pressure is profit taking and nothing more. Look for support on the $23.5k level. If it holds then price action will rally to the target.

Weekly chart

Note

Getting a lot of messages at the moment 'When short?'. Below two possible levels of significant resistance is identified. However! If there's one lesson I've learnt over the years, never never go 'short' into momentum. At this time on the 2-week chart Stochastic RSI has crossed up and over 50. Look left. At no point in price action history did price action nose dive until a sell signal printed. That's not my opinion, that's just a fact of the chart.
Ww

1-week

Note

A close above in the next days makes this trade 'fully active'.

Note

Returned to the office this week with a monster amount of messages. Thanks to all for reaching out, I can't reply to all. Themes include, price action for alts, how a significant market correction is coming, in general nothing positive for years to come ;)

Has the chart change since the last update in February 15th?
Not in the slightest. In the last update 'a close above is bullish'. Price action has been consolidating at this level now for a few weeks.

The most noteworthy change since the last update is the bullish band has flipped to green following a strong buy signal on the weekly chart. Price action is very unlikely to re-test anything below $21.7k going forward.

weekly

Note

Dates are not my forte.. however a number of messages asking how many months or years for this target.

My studies suggest by the end of April 2023.

Trade active

Good morning.. two charts today.

1) The falling wedge breakout with flagpole extension measuring out to target on the daily chart.

2) Weekly candle closes as a Dragonfly DOJI candle ON the bull market support band.

Daily

Weekly chart

Note

For the bulls, and change to target.

For the bears, $16k correction to $10k.

Note

Tiny swing trade opportunity. The journey to the target continues after a test of the red arrow. Will explain elsewhere why.

10hr chart

Note

When candle bodies start closing on or above the target you should then expect price action to hit $FWB:39K as shown below.

Daily chart

Trade closed: target reached

Will close this idea since the target was indeed hit.

The short sellers commenting below in this idea now also call for bearish moves on the 48k idea. Do you see a pattern? Emotion is a money killer.

Note

Clean breakout on the 10hr, should take price action to 31-32k area..

A confirmation of support on this resistance clears the path to 48k

10hr

Note

If you're a pattern trader you will have no doubt noticed this diamond print on the daily chart. Wait for a candle a daily candle to print outside the formation. Whichever side it prints a 10% move shall follow.

Note

Appears to be an upside breakout but would wait until next week proper for confirmation.

Note

One minute it is breaking up the next down, if the days ahead close at current levels expect a 10% correction to past resistance as shown by the red horizontal line.

Note

A few folks already messaged on the above pattern as if it is guaranteed. Nothing is certain, only probable. IF you’re a pattern trader you must wait for confirmation. Preferably on the 2-day time frame or higher. Already there was a breakout to the upside for 2-days before breakdown of support. To confirm the downside support MUST be confirmed as resistance and not before. Those are the rules.

Just to mix things up a bit.. the last bear flag to print on the daily chart is now almost 1 year old. Price action entered this channel in the middle of last month.

Price action has confirmed support inside this channel on 3 occasions now.

Note

Had meant to share this signal that printed last night. Not super strong, but enough. The circles below are worth paying attention to, they are in green. Some of you know what this means some of you don't.

Will close this ideas once 31k becomes support, then the 48k idea gets the focus.

Note

PS: keep watching the bear flag on the 2-day. IF price action closes candle bodies at 29k (black line resistance) and above, the bear argument is dead in the water. Why? Look left. Look at the resistance that has been overcome since re-entering the bear flag, simple support and resistance. This is the chart that has been used to support the 'buy dips under 28k' post in tandem with the weekly prints.

Note

Panic sets in as price action closes at the same price as yesterday.

110 million in liquidations. Why do it? Just hold spot people. On the other hand once all the leverage is flushed out you will notice market structure improves much.

coinglass.com/LiquidationData

Note

** near term forecast **

It would seem a backtest for 25k is forecast following the diamond pattern breakout. The correction is the distance from the top of the pattern to the bottom, which measures out exactly at 25k.

Would not trade it though. Notice the positive divergence building, as contradictory as it sounds falling price action prints is met with cumulative volume increases. The Money Flow index (bottom oscillator) continues to print higher lows following a breakout of past resistance.

10hr

Note

The 12hr is about to go 'incredible buy', has not printed since last November. There should be some days to open longs. Under 26k? Grab it...

12hr

Trade closed: target reached

Note

This 31k resistance continues to show strength. If you're on the fence, here is what you're looking for:

1) Volume move past 31k.

2) 31k tested as support.

This sideways trading on 31k is a no mans land for traders. Investors do not care.

without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on:

Related publications

Is Bitcoin about to rally to $110-120k ??

by without_worries

Disclaimer

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without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on:

Related publications

Is Bitcoin about to rally to $110-120k ??

by without_worries