Bitcoin: BTCUSD Key Levels and Breaks for Sunday Trades

Updated

Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Sunday Update
The first short yesterday from 7049 was stopped out at 7061
for a 12 point loss. Bitcoin went on to make a high after that
at 7071 - a poor stop by 12 points. This is my bad here, not
the chart's - just a poorly judged spot for the stop. Sorry for
that one.
Anyway the second time it broke 7050 gave another chance to
short and this time when it next counter-rallied the high was
7038 and the short stayed good if you took it on the second
time around.
The low today is 6615 on Bitfinex.
Last gasp support today lies in an 80 point range from 6615
down to 6535.
Bitcoin should try a rally attempt from here so look to close
out shorts in this range. The next short from here triggers
once 6600 is broken, aiming for another test of 6000 with
stops 50 or more higher once broken.
On upside some day traders will reverse long down at these
levels for a test of the falling dynamic at around 6850 but it's
quite a risky trade and until that same litttle dynamic is
broken to the upside Bitcoin will remain vulnerable. The rally
we are seeing now should stop there and day traders will
likely close out longs there at around 6863. Bitcoin will have
to break above this dynamic for the rally to be worth
following higher to 7221 with stops under the dynamic when
broken above. But any potential swing longs will have to wait
for 7221 to be broken above to follow long with stops 50 or
more lower.
Until we see that happen Bitcoin remains under pressure but
cannot be shorted again from here until 6600 breaks.

Note

Bitcoin Update Bitfinex Feed
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
A massive whale attack has ravaged the short - the stop was fairly clearly just above the 6535 dividing line on Bitfinex as the chart shows and so a small profit will have been realised or at worst the trade should have broken even if stops have been managed properly here.
That attack was wicked. Out of the big blue. 3 sundays ago a similar trick, 2 sundays ago, same deal - last week they left it - but struck again today - 3 out last 4. It will have triggered so many stops as it rose and caused a mild panic at the top - but was effectively capped by the falling dynamic to start with. But since the spike high another slightly higher spike is in danger of forming on the 15 minute chart- so far it looks like it has come come back down again - but it won't do whilst sticking above the upper parallel here - It looks like the 6818 line is the dividing line between escape to the upside and a retest of the lows from here.
It's vulnerable below here and more likely to fall away again over time.
But the longer it can hold up above here and absorb sales above the upper parallel means that a little flag could be just beginning to form now, meaning there could be another break higher later, back to 7221.
This potential long will get triggered at this point by a move above 6880 with a stop below 6800.
Until then am holding fire until a clearer top pattern forms

Bitfinex Live Feed
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

Note

Bitcoin Coinbase
This is a little wild now - conflicting signals - one is more bearish (Bitfinex, above) with an upwards sloping bias and yet Coinbase is still potentially bullish - difficult.
Anyway am figuring on getting long only if 6885 is broken above (on Coinbase) with a stop 50 or more lower

In meantime day traders are selling off the upper falling dynamic but are being met with buyers at 6800 to 6780 - this could go on a while longer still.

Resurrection day ? Too early to say - but a break above 6885 is probably worth following if we see it materialise for a counter rally to 7185 -7200 range where it should come back off again.

Note

20:15gmt 15:15est Update
Coinbase -
Wow - an amazing break - raise stop right underneath it - this is insane

0:24gmt 19:24est
Yet another Sunday ram raid by some clever school of whales by look of it - 3rd Sunday out of 4 - Easter Sunday - great time to strike.

Bitcoin in a continuation pattern so far - 3 waves down - probing the 6818 dividing line again on Bitfinex and trying to make up its mind which way to break from here - once it breaks below 6748 line it should fall away further back to the lows - but whilst inside the parallels it still has a chance of breaking to the upside - against the odds maybe - but it's Bitcoin. There are whales about. Sh%t happpens. If we see it happen it should mess up a load of bear stops and likely trigger a quick 200 or so point rally to 7028 and potentially as high as 7200-7221 range at highest before it falls away again.

Note

Bitstamp Chart Update

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Note

Bitcoin Coinbase Update Monday
The rally marked with the green arrow was 644 points. The rally we have seen from yesterday's low is 646 points. But we didn't get too much of it, snared by that whale attack out of the blue.
The rally is in danger of running out of upside momentum from here - there is a little pennant forming off the high and Bitcoin has to break higher and above 7100 to stay positive from here today. Worth following long if we see it, but most likely only for 100-180 points more to 7195-7280 range at highest.
On downside, once it breaks the little pennant formation at the top of the run and then below 7018 it should start to decline again by 100-150 points to begin with - then after a rally attempt it should start to roll over more and fall away a little faster.
The overall pattern is still suggesting this is a counter-rally in an ongoing down-trend.

Uploaded about 2 minutes late, sorry for being a little too slow here

11:24gmt
Screw this short - not happening - am lowering the stop to 7020 on Coinbase just in case it holds here...a little to strange to be too cock-sure about his break so far
11:25gmt
This is some weird price action here- just sitting there - should be running on empty but somehow every sale is being absorbed - the penannt is now a flag - potentially bullish break can therefore still materialise from here but still only for 100-180 points most likely.
Now in a tiny range but spike off the lower parallel of the flag formation.
Boy, this is slow grinding, maddening.
Gotta wait now for break above or below the flag formation to trigger next trade from here.
6 points lost on that bum short - sorry for that.

Note

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12:22gmt/07:22est
Coinbase Update
Well it broke the flag to the upside but the high is 7099 - so no trigger to upside yet ...very close though!

13:25gmt/08:25est
Bitcoin Update Coinbase Feed
Another spike off the dynamic under the lows
Live Coinbase feed for those trading this exchange
Next trade gets triggered either side of the two dynamics with stops 50 or so higher at most.
Even day traders trading between the lines are not having much joy, with the range now so small and interest only from bots really at this point.
US beginning to wake - as usual without a push from here it will start to fall away - still has to break above 7100 to get long with stop 50 or so lower and below the lower dynamic at 6985 to get short with stop above 7000 if triggered.

tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

sumastardon

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