Finding the bottom and BTClongs:shorts
Updated
This elliot wave seems quite in play. I didn’t spot it but have taken the chance to showcase some great signal being confirmed on each wave. My wave 5 pans out different to who mapped this before me (sorry I can’t remember you, and I think he got it from someone else too lol). I’ve kept was 5 stunted because it is face planting into two support lines and has probably begun the accumulation phase: the ABC correction will be lost between the price moving between the two supports. If June 6th is indeed a significant date these support lines hold more value.
The elliot wave plays nicely into the support line and plays nicely into April’s accumulation, which if we follow the fractal we should expect to see over the week. Though it is Monday tomorrow. If the daily closes on monday without much change I’ll be almost confident a week of shorting won’t be ahead of us.
Though I want you to take a look at the chart below. This is what gives me confidence that our first major support will be strengthened here with a triple bottom.
vvvv
Short and long positions plummeted on April 12.
Many of those longs had take profit close positions otherwise we wouldn’t have seen such a drop in the longs as well. Afterwards, longs stayed steady as the remaining positions closed better profits while the price climbed. Naturally we’d see longs increase during a bull run.
Everyone that had shorted got liquidated. The whales here were the exchanges, just ask who profited the most off this? Not George Soros, as some believe because of his public statement the week prior, and people simply closing their shorts would not concatenate such an automation of bought orders.
I bring this up because the natural cycle of 2018 seems to bring us to a crawling bottom again, as price is expected to complete this cycle and make another 1 month run.
This chart shows us the stark difference behind the scenes this week and in april.
Both Longs and Shorts have been steady for a while; neither seems to be over stretched. Volume is low, but slowly increasing (might be too early to call that). There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market right now (unlike April) - even if price moved suddenly in one direction there’ll be less impulsive followers to overextend that direction. Looking on a larger time scale we also see 2018 is nearing the end of a large wedge, driving volatility down. It is important to understand the volatility is reducing like volume, but it is reducing more. It is not due to as much a lack of interest in BTC as some might think, but more because of the squeezing of the wedge.
The truth is, we are at a time where people can’t predict the next move with certainty. This creates a lot of impulsive analysis on Trading View. I might just be looking at the calm before the storm, but I think BTC holders who have faith in decentralised currency or just don’t want to see their investment opportunity go down the drain don’t need to worry right now. Looking at the charts, not much is happening. I personally would like to see the price continue sideways or make a 500 point drop down, that way there’ll be more signs telling me what will happen next. A spike up 500 will be a bull trap.
The elliot wave plays nicely into the support line and plays nicely into April’s accumulation, which if we follow the fractal we should expect to see over the week. Though it is Monday tomorrow. If the daily closes on monday without much change I’ll be almost confident a week of shorting won’t be ahead of us.
Though I want you to take a look at the chart below. This is what gives me confidence that our first major support will be strengthened here with a triple bottom.
vvvv
Short and long positions plummeted on April 12.
Many of those longs had take profit close positions otherwise we wouldn’t have seen such a drop in the longs as well. Afterwards, longs stayed steady as the remaining positions closed better profits while the price climbed. Naturally we’d see longs increase during a bull run.
Everyone that had shorted got liquidated. The whales here were the exchanges, just ask who profited the most off this? Not George Soros, as some believe because of his public statement the week prior, and people simply closing their shorts would not concatenate such an automation of bought orders.
I bring this up because the natural cycle of 2018 seems to bring us to a crawling bottom again, as price is expected to complete this cycle and make another 1 month run.
This chart shows us the stark difference behind the scenes this week and in april.
Both Longs and Shorts have been steady for a while; neither seems to be over stretched. Volume is low, but slowly increasing (might be too early to call that). There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market right now (unlike April) - even if price moved suddenly in one direction there’ll be less impulsive followers to overextend that direction. Looking on a larger time scale we also see 2018 is nearing the end of a large wedge, driving volatility down. It is important to understand the volatility is reducing like volume, but it is reducing more. It is not due to as much a lack of interest in BTC as some might think, but more because of the squeezing of the wedge.
The truth is, we are at a time where people can’t predict the next move with certainty. This creates a lot of impulsive analysis on Trading View. I might just be looking at the calm before the storm, but I think BTC holders who have faith in decentralised currency or just don’t want to see their investment opportunity go down the drain don’t need to worry right now. Looking at the charts, not much is happening. I personally would like to see the price continue sideways or make a 500 point drop down, that way there’ll be more signs telling me what will happen next. A spike up 500 will be a bull trap.
Note
TO conclude:The market at the moment believes we are nearing the bottom, but DOES NOT HAVE FAITH in the market. This is why we have so many long positions opened to catch a drop, and so little short positions opened to catch a rise, especially because we clearly see now the cycle is monthly.
Two things could happen long term that begin now:
a) a massive sell off could happen, trying to break through all those orders and finally capitalise on the long prophesied FUD and panic. Though this does not make sense as whales would burn up more cash than they'd like to achieve this. A lot of the market is ready to see 4k lows yet and will jump on those prices. Also there's a lot of legal pressure at the moment on manipulators.
b) whales don't let the hope of traders die out so it can be built back up again. Market manipulation becomes less aggressive and traders slowly build the price back up, and we see new money enter back in at the end of the year.
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