BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib of the recent massive dump.
Updated
BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib retrace level of the recent massive dump -- as drawn from top to bottom of the dip since it produces higher degree of confluence wrt to the VPVR levels.
If the current 3hrly candle, retesting the 61.8% Fib, closes above, I will be going all in (Long) with the rest of my BTC trading account; with stop-loss set and constantly updated at below the 21 EMA.
I'm now short-term bullish.
However for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish, the BTC needs to pierce above the 50% Fib @ 7161 USD and hold.
CYBER ENSEMBLE had earlier signaled a sell [S] on the 1hrly marking the start of the retest.
Will also adjust stop-loss to protect any gains made if the sell [S] signal is triggered on the 3hrly, which is the timeframe that the CYBER ENSEMBLE Buy/Sell indicator is optimized at (see past/historical confluence).
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Far-longer-term outlook:
================================
With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value).
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Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority.
Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key.
Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift).
However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future.
Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network.
Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows.
Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago.
Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift.
A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies.
The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich.
================================
Entry/Exit/Target Strategy, and Risk-to-Reward
Previous analysis, waiting for this very entry condition to be met:
PRISM Oscillators
RSI and STOCHs
Relative Candle Volatility/Directionality Indexes {RCVI/RCDI}
If the current 3hrly candle, retesting the 61.8% Fib, closes above, I will be going all in (Long) with the rest of my BTC trading account; with stop-loss set and constantly updated at below the 21 EMA.
I'm now short-term bullish.
However for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish, the BTC needs to pierce above the 50% Fib @ 7161 USD and hold.
CYBER ENSEMBLE had earlier signaled a sell [S] on the 1hrly marking the start of the retest.
Will also adjust stop-loss to protect any gains made if the sell [S] signal is triggered on the 3hrly, which is the timeframe that the CYBER ENSEMBLE Buy/Sell indicator is optimized at (see past/historical confluence).
================================
Far-longer-term outlook:
================================
With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value).
---
Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority.
Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key.
Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift).
However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future.
Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network.
Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows.
Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago.
Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift.
A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies.
The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich.
================================
Entry/Exit/Target Strategy, and Risk-to-Reward
Previous analysis, waiting for this very entry condition to be met:
PRISM Oscillators
RSI and STOCHs
Relative Candle Volatility/Directionality Indexes {RCVI/RCDI}
Note
TD-seq on a 9 and the current candle high is higher than the previous 4 candles'. There's a good chance it might come down to retest the 61.8% level again in the next few candles.Note
Bearish divergence of both the Cyber Ensemble (Orange S) and Prism Signals (Red S), with the price continuing higher, but now finally resolving and dipping down. Appears to have found support on the 21EMA, but might go further down to retest the 61.8% lvl again (which might be a good price point to accumulate a little more), depending on what the PRISM momentum and acceleration oscillators say.Note
A more zoomed in look:Note
Price now below 21 EMA on the daily. Also TD-Seq on the 9, although current high is lower than prev. 2 candles, will be treading carefully. Setting stop loss presently at 6500 USD; in case price falls below the 21 EMA sharply on the 3hrly as well.Note
Friday Update:
Note
Above: daily chart.Below: 3hrly chart.
Note
CYBER ENSEMBLE Sell {S} signal triggered on the 3hrly, and price fell below 21 EMA.Note
Price might fall to 61.8% again 6382 USD. And if that fails, next target is 5273 USD.Note
Have to wait for candle to close for confirmation though.
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