Bitcoin's bias remains up, but sideways through tomorrow
Good morning, traders. We are nearing the end of the week which means CME Bitcoin futures expire in just over 24 hours (10 a.m. CST on 9/28/2018). Bitcoin continues to move sideways as we suggested might likely happen, but it did finally break through the resistance at the descending blue line. The resistance combined with the ascending support created a pennant which gives price a target of almost $6695 based on the flagpole leading to it. But first price has to hit the $6614 target. This gets it back into the yellow box. Don't forget that the largest target of $6763 is now triggered and is based on the DBW. The swing high at $6540 remains the key to those targets. Successful breach of that swing high should send price on its way. Failure to breach it suggests supply is greater than demand and we may see price dipping below $6300. There are gaps up to $6973 on the 15 minute chart from the last run up to $7400, suggesting the most likely move is up to fill those gaps.
Price remains within the descending channel/bull flag on the 1D chart. A breach of this flag's resistance should send price targeting $7290 at this time, which puts it at the bottom of the blue box. At that point, price is just a skip away from breaching the $7430 swing high that marks the top of the right shoulder. Doing so confirms the compound fulcrum and should mark the reversal. It also takes price through the resistance of the February descending wedge as well as the June symmetrical triangle thereby providing a target of just over $11,200. A higher high above $8500 confirms a bullish trend on the larger TF as it would give us higher lows and highs for the first time this year, and it does so over the course of 3+ months.
The DJI printed a three black crows candlestick pattern which is a sign of a reversal. It did so after printing the evening star which is also a reversal sign. The recent Zero Hedge article (zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-26/insider-selling-soars-fastest-pace-september-sales-past-decade) noting that insider selling has soared and is showing the fastest pace of September sales in the past decade, while the average continues to rise, confirms what I noticed about Friday's $90 TR but >2x average volume -- retail is being distributed to. FOMC raised interest rates 25 basis points as expected yesterday and we can see the DXY rising as a result. Again, this was expected as a response to the interest rate hike. FOMC stated they planned to raise the rate once more this year and 3x in 2019. If stocks are in distribution as they appear, then we will be lucky if we see another raise any time soon. Gold is dropping as a response to the rise in the DXY but currently remains within the month-long TR though I'm not sure it will be able to remain within it.
Price remains within the descending channel/bull flag on the 1D chart. A breach of this flag's resistance should send price targeting $7290 at this time, which puts it at the bottom of the blue box. At that point, price is just a skip away from breaching the $7430 swing high that marks the top of the right shoulder. Doing so confirms the compound fulcrum and should mark the reversal. It also takes price through the resistance of the February descending wedge as well as the June symmetrical triangle thereby providing a target of just over $11,200. A higher high above $8500 confirms a bullish trend on the larger TF as it would give us higher lows and highs for the first time this year, and it does so over the course of 3+ months.
The DJI printed a three black crows candlestick pattern which is a sign of a reversal. It did so after printing the evening star which is also a reversal sign. The recent Zero Hedge article (zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-26/insider-selling-soars-fastest-pace-september-sales-past-decade) noting that insider selling has soared and is showing the fastest pace of September sales in the past decade, while the average continues to rise, confirms what I noticed about Friday's $90 TR but >2x average volume -- retail is being distributed to. FOMC raised interest rates 25 basis points as expected yesterday and we can see the DXY rising as a result. Again, this was expected as a response to the interest rate hike. FOMC stated they planned to raise the rate once more this year and 3x in 2019. If stocks are in distribution as they appear, then we will be lucky if we see another raise any time soon. Gold is dropping as a response to the rise in the DXY but currently remains within the month-long TR though I'm not sure it will be able to remain within it.
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