BitcoinShort
Bitcoin's Path: $70K Correction Imminent
Alright, let's use the historical data on that BTC/USD weekly chart as a foundation for my forecast. After seeing the way Bitcoin has moved in the past, I want to use that data to make some educated guesses on what might happen next.
Key Points from Our Historical Analysis
Here are the key points I'm using for my forecast:
Large Bull Cycles: Bitcoin has shown the ability to make huge moves upwards, with gains reaching 500% or more. I will be mindful of this upside potential as a key point of my plan.
Significant Corrections: Every major bull run has always been followed by a major correction, often with drawdowns of 50%, or even 80%. I understand that these corrections are not random, they are part of the natural price action of BTC.
Recent Move: The recent move to 100k was a major sign of bullish activity.
My Bitcoin Forecast:
Based on these historical patterns and my understanding of market dynamics, here's my outlook for the next major move for Bitcoin:
Anticipated Correction: Given the recent strong move, and the fact that we are entering the 100k psychological price point, I anticipate a significant pullback from current levels. I want to see a test of the 80k range, and possibly even the 60k range.
Estimated Drawdown: Based on prior drawdowns, I expect to see a retracement of at least 30%-50% from the recent high (100k), which can bring the price down to a range between $50,000 and $70,000.
Next Bullish Upside: After this retracement, I anticipate another bull phase. The percentage gained on these next phases may be less than the previous, but there is still potential for a massive move. I will be looking for confirmation of a reversal in trend before I jump back into a trade.
Potential Upside Target: If this retracement does not go below the 60k mark, and then moves upwards, I would then start to target $150,000 as a mid term target.
My Strategy for the Coming Months:
Patience: I will be patient, and I will not chase the price upwards. I will wait for the market to confirm a clear trend before placing any new trades.
Risk Management: I will be using a stop loss at all times, to manage my risk during these periods of high volatility.
Confirmation: I will wait for the technical indicators and price action to confirm any upside moves.
Important Notes:
Not Exact Science: This is a forecast and not an exact science. No one can predict the future. This is simply an estimate using technical analysis to show the most probable outcome.
External Factors: Other factors not shown in the chart, such as news events and market sentiment may have an impact to prices.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.