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tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bears did good but need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. Right now it’s a tough spot to trade since daily 20ema was support and bears need to keep it below 68000. Probably best to sit on hands and wait for a breakout of this range. Still think bears are slightly favored to break below and trade down to at least 63000.
bitcoin
comment: Chart is the same as I posted on Sunday and my two legged correction was a bit too low for the B but C was absolutely perfect. What now? Daily 20ema could be support for now but my bearish thesis stands. Market has not printed 70000 and I doubt it will again for a longer time. Bears need follow through to make the last bulls cover and the selling would likely accelerate.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 69000
bull case: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and want to keep it support and retest 69000. They know that if they fail here, market will test down to 62000 quickly. I do not have any more arguments for the bulls, since my bias has been bearish for many weeks now. If they close a daily candle above 68000 again, I would change my mind.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears had their do or die moment again and made it. Now they need follow through because a daily close above the big bear trend line from the ath would give bulls confidence again and bears would cover in fear of 70000. They need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. My line in the sand was 66500 as of yesterday and we are not at 66400, so too close for comfort for bears.
Invalidation is above 68000.
short term: Bearish below 68000. Confirmation is for bears is below 65000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bear trend day since Globex open, so pick anywhere and sell but maybe not into US close. Looking for shorts near the 1h 20ema was a decent strategy today.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bears did good but need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. Right now it’s a tough spot to trade since daily 20ema was support and bears need to keep it below 68000. Probably best to sit on hands and wait for a breakout of this range. Still think bears are slightly favored to break below and trade down to at least 63000.
bitcoin
comment: Chart is the same as I posted on Sunday and my two legged correction was a bit too low for the B but C was absolutely perfect. What now? Daily 20ema could be support for now but my bearish thesis stands. Market has not printed 70000 and I doubt it will again for a longer time. Bears need follow through to make the last bulls cover and the selling would likely accelerate.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 69000
bull case: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and want to keep it support and retest 69000. They know that if they fail here, market will test down to 62000 quickly. I do not have any more arguments for the bulls, since my bias has been bearish for many weeks now. If they close a daily candle above 68000 again, I would change my mind.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears had their do or die moment again and made it. Now they need follow through because a daily close above the big bear trend line from the ath would give bulls confidence again and bears would cover in fear of 70000. They need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. My line in the sand was 66500 as of yesterday and we are not at 66400, so too close for comfort for bears.
Invalidation is above 68000.
short term: Bearish below 68000. Confirmation is for bears is below 65000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bear trend day since Globex open, so pick anywhere and sell but maybe not into US close. Looking for shorts near the 1h 20ema was a decent strategy today.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.