What is more dangerous than buying the top, is waiting for the top and holding a bag of rocks into the bear market. Therefore, I am sharing this with you with further explanation of how I see the market will play out:
OBSERVATION:
I see ALTS like ADA, AVAX, MANA etc. topping out at FIB R ranges of 1.618 & 2.618 levels from May 19th dip. But if we consider March 2020 dip, they all exceeded 4.236 FIB. And BTC 4.236 FIB level is priced at 73k which BTC tends to break into euphoria before plunging into bear market.
SCENARIO (1)
As per Wyckoff, BTC last leg up is very very short and it ends up playing in a narrow range before dumping; hence Alts Season and BTC topping between 72k-82k.
If this plays out, then the market cycle for Alts will end in Q1 2022 as it did in the past. Yet, BTC would top at a very low weekly/monthly RSI and BTC will break so many SMA supports on its way down in the bear market that it never broke in previous cycles.
SCENARIO (2)
We are in a long extended cycle that may take us to Q2 or Q3 2022 the least with triple tops if not more in the horizon. And with more deep plunges like May 19th this year to follow. And in this case, BTC will top around $188k.
Regardless, which scenario BTC plays out. This cycle will be very unique and not like the previous ones as BTC will break so many rules and take most traders by surprise.
Either way, personally I find it very very risky to hold BTC or any Alts that has popped already. That is why my BTC bag is very little. And all Alts that has pumped have been sold (a bit early though in my case as I sold early boomers in Aug/Sep 2021). I am now holding the most boring non-moving yet fundamentally solid Alts.
So regardless of which scenario plays out, my bag of boring Alts are less likely to dump the most, and more likely to pump in the coming weeks.
… my 2 cents.
OBSERVATION:
I see ALTS like ADA, AVAX, MANA etc. topping out at FIB R ranges of 1.618 & 2.618 levels from May 19th dip. But if we consider March 2020 dip, they all exceeded 4.236 FIB. And BTC 4.236 FIB level is priced at 73k which BTC tends to break into euphoria before plunging into bear market.
SCENARIO (1)
As per Wyckoff, BTC last leg up is very very short and it ends up playing in a narrow range before dumping; hence Alts Season and BTC topping between 72k-82k.
If this plays out, then the market cycle for Alts will end in Q1 2022 as it did in the past. Yet, BTC would top at a very low weekly/monthly RSI and BTC will break so many SMA supports on its way down in the bear market that it never broke in previous cycles.
SCENARIO (2)
We are in a long extended cycle that may take us to Q2 or Q3 2022 the least with triple tops if not more in the horizon. And with more deep plunges like May 19th this year to follow. And in this case, BTC will top around $188k.
Regardless, which scenario BTC plays out. This cycle will be very unique and not like the previous ones as BTC will break so many rules and take most traders by surprise.
Either way, personally I find it very very risky to hold BTC or any Alts that has popped already. That is why my BTC bag is very little. And all Alts that has pumped have been sold (a bit early though in my case as I sold early boomers in Aug/Sep 2021). I am now holding the most boring non-moving yet fundamentally solid Alts.
So regardless of which scenario plays out, my bag of boring Alts are less likely to dump the most, and more likely to pump in the coming weeks.
… my 2 cents.
Unless you figure a way to make money while you sleep, you’ll work till you die.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Unless you figure a way to make money while you sleep, you’ll work till you die.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.