Hello everyone,
I know we are all probably a little stressed/excited/anxious because of the price action over the last few weeks which has caused many traders numerous sleepless days and nights and I am here to admit that I am one of those! Because of these long nights and days it is easy to get caught up in day-to-day action watching the 4 hour chart and even hour by hour action zoomed in on even smaller time frames, and this can be profitable! However, micro price analysis can be tedious and take a toll on a traders mental state after days of grueling action so I am here to invite you to take a little break and zoom out for a second. I present to you an overall look at the bitcoin market since the year 2011, lets dig in.
1. As you can see the purple trend line has given us support since roughly December of 2011 around $2.50 all the way to $900 in March of 2017 where we proceeded to take off on a pretty epic bull run, the purple line has not EVER failed to hold as support since bitcoin was created.
2. The white trend line has likewise acted as support on numerous occasions as well as resistance. The first time of support lasted about a year from April of 2014 through March of 2015 at which time the white line flipped from support to resistance. This new resistance held us down from July of 2015 all the way to March of 2017 after which time we had another flipping to from resistance back to support. The last time the white line was tested it acted as support in July of 2017 at a price of approximately $1900.
3. The 50 week MA has held us as support since October of 2015 and was tested, and held, as recently as April of 2018.
Conclusion- I believe we are going to test the 50 week MA once more after making a lower high at $9.9k USD and being rejected at the 200 day MA. If support is able to hold again it will prove that the market is now stuck in between the 200dma and the 50WMA and we could see a significant period of ranging before a squeezed into a final choice. However, If the 50WMA fails I believe we will find SIGNIFICANT support at the confluence of the Purple and White trend lines we discussed in points (1.) and (2.) which will set us up perfectly for a massive bounce (maybe with a bull wick down to 3.5ish? :) ) and a great opportunity to finally break above the 200DMA and start a new bull run leading us into December 2018 and beyond.
I hope you all enjoyed this analysis and will maybe take a day off and get some sleep and/or spend some time with the family! Remember, Life is about more than money and more than trading (although these things are veryyyy nice) take some time and enjoy it!
All the best,
Red Boar
I know we are all probably a little stressed/excited/anxious because of the price action over the last few weeks which has caused many traders numerous sleepless days and nights and I am here to admit that I am one of those! Because of these long nights and days it is easy to get caught up in day-to-day action watching the 4 hour chart and even hour by hour action zoomed in on even smaller time frames, and this can be profitable! However, micro price analysis can be tedious and take a toll on a traders mental state after days of grueling action so I am here to invite you to take a little break and zoom out for a second. I present to you an overall look at the bitcoin market since the year 2011, lets dig in.
1. As you can see the purple trend line has given us support since roughly December of 2011 around $2.50 all the way to $900 in March of 2017 where we proceeded to take off on a pretty epic bull run, the purple line has not EVER failed to hold as support since bitcoin was created.
2. The white trend line has likewise acted as support on numerous occasions as well as resistance. The first time of support lasted about a year from April of 2014 through March of 2015 at which time the white line flipped from support to resistance. This new resistance held us down from July of 2015 all the way to March of 2017 after which time we had another flipping to from resistance back to support. The last time the white line was tested it acted as support in July of 2017 at a price of approximately $1900.
3. The 50 week MA has held us as support since October of 2015 and was tested, and held, as recently as April of 2018.
Conclusion- I believe we are going to test the 50 week MA once more after making a lower high at $9.9k USD and being rejected at the 200 day MA. If support is able to hold again it will prove that the market is now stuck in between the 200dma and the 50WMA and we could see a significant period of ranging before a squeezed into a final choice. However, If the 50WMA fails I believe we will find SIGNIFICANT support at the confluence of the Purple and White trend lines we discussed in points (1.) and (2.) which will set us up perfectly for a massive bounce (maybe with a bull wick down to 3.5ish? :) ) and a great opportunity to finally break above the 200DMA and start a new bull run leading us into December 2018 and beyond.
I hope you all enjoyed this analysis and will maybe take a day off and get some sleep and/or spend some time with the family! Remember, Life is about more than money and more than trading (although these things are veryyyy nice) take some time and enjoy it!
All the best,
Red Boar
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note: sorry if the RSI is too large, you should be able to minimize it by dragging it downwardNote
Also, on the right hand side of the chart if you did not know you can make the chart larger or smaller by clicking the price area and moving up or downNote
Update on current micro-time scale situation (daily)
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never mind above is 2 day with monthly supportsNote
Here is the weekly, with yearly supports
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Update/zoomed in look at where the critical 50wma sits currently
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Here is a look at how on a 4 hour chart BTC interacted with the 50WMA for the crash of 2014.Note
Here is our current position in relation to the 50wma on a 4 hour chart Note
50 WMA Has been broken...now what? Well lets take a look at 2014 Note
Here we are in 2018Note
Will support sling us back up into the bottom of the triangle ?Note
sorry I don't think the last chart showed up, Note
Both supports now broken...it's going to be very rough, get out if you havent already. .
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.