BITCOIN - This Pattern Shows More Downside Momentum Potential
Updated
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As mentioned in my previous analysis, I thought we'd have one more breakout and then further downside momentum.
I was personally hedging a short against a lower down spot long position where we entered around $3380 on the falling wedge.
Right now, I'm seeing one of two patterns in play.
Currently, the most likely scenario based on market context is the contracting triangle, which is typically a continuation pattern to the downside in a bear market.
This is even more true as it qualifies based on all of the rules for a contracting triangle as I've laid out here with an easy to see example.
As we can see on the chart, the D wave did not break the AB wave and the C wave did not cross above the A wave and the E wave did not cross above the C wave.
Using a fibonacci extension on the E wave with D as our swing low and E as our swing high, we get three fibonacci extensions.
The only way to know whether this will be a flat correction ($3182) or a Zig Zag correction (1.618 or 2.618) is with price action.
The 2.618 extension lines up with the size of the A wave impulse, which would put us around $2,000
The main invalidation to this pattern will be a break of the swing high on the E wave.
That brings me to the next possible pattern that this could be.
If instead of using the wicks of the candles and you use the bodies instead, we may also have a potential rising triangle.
This is a far less likely scenario based on the overall structure of the market and the significant downtrend we are currently in and the fact that we are still trending under the 200 MA, which has been a very strong resistance point.
Either way, once price reaches the 88.6% fibonacci and the lower end of the support around $3549, I do expect a bounce for a potential long opportunity before further downside momentum.
From a price action perspective, we had a massive bearish engulfing and we justt got a strong reaction and pin point off of the .618 level for a nice scalping opportunity on a previous resistance turned support.
The buy volume wasn't strong and I believe this was a bounce to load up shorts for another impulse to the downside.
Remember, no matter what direction the trade moves, the most important thing is managing your risk through proper position sizing and employing proper trading techniques to make sure you get the best Risk/Reward.
I hope you enjoyed my analysis and if you learned something or want me to make more, leave a comment below. All feedback and criticism is welcome.
Happy Trading!
As mentioned in my previous analysis, I thought we'd have one more breakout and then further downside momentum.
I was personally hedging a short against a lower down spot long position where we entered around $3380 on the falling wedge.
Right now, I'm seeing one of two patterns in play.
Currently, the most likely scenario based on market context is the contracting triangle, which is typically a continuation pattern to the downside in a bear market.
This is even more true as it qualifies based on all of the rules for a contracting triangle as I've laid out here with an easy to see example.
As we can see on the chart, the D wave did not break the AB wave and the C wave did not cross above the A wave and the E wave did not cross above the C wave.
Using a fibonacci extension on the E wave with D as our swing low and E as our swing high, we get three fibonacci extensions.
The only way to know whether this will be a flat correction ($3182) or a Zig Zag correction (1.618 or 2.618) is with price action.
The 2.618 extension lines up with the size of the A wave impulse, which would put us around $2,000
The main invalidation to this pattern will be a break of the swing high on the E wave.
That brings me to the next possible pattern that this could be.
If instead of using the wicks of the candles and you use the bodies instead, we may also have a potential rising triangle.
This is a far less likely scenario based on the overall structure of the market and the significant downtrend we are currently in and the fact that we are still trending under the 200 MA, which has been a very strong resistance point.
Either way, once price reaches the 88.6% fibonacci and the lower end of the support around $3549, I do expect a bounce for a potential long opportunity before further downside momentum.
From a price action perspective, we had a massive bearish engulfing and we justt got a strong reaction and pin point off of the .618 level for a nice scalping opportunity on a previous resistance turned support.
The buy volume wasn't strong and I believe this was a bounce to load up shorts for another impulse to the downside.
Remember, no matter what direction the trade moves, the most important thing is managing your risk through proper position sizing and employing proper trading techniques to make sure you get the best Risk/Reward.
I hope you enjoyed my analysis and if you learned something or want me to make more, leave a comment below. All feedback and criticism is welcome.
Happy Trading!
Note
This pattern is invalidated with a break of the E wave swing high.Note
We had a strong push to the downside and a great reaction from the bulls, which everyone took was a bullish move.I'm seeing more bullish charts out today, but I'm seeing a different picture. We had a strong impulse to the downside and it looks to be forming a bearish flag.
I think we will see a strong move either way.
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