Good morning everybody,
It may seem as a routinary situation for BTC, where bulls and bears fight to imprint the market direction. But this time, even if not realized by many, the winners of this battle will guide the direction in the following months.
We are currently at a crucial level of 6800 which is a very long term support/resistance from 2017.
The price is also within 3 channels, 2 short term upward ones, and 1 bearish medium term one (which was created at 14k peaks). Signals are controversial as we currently are at the top of the bearish one and at the bottom of the ascending ones (that are still holding), below their 50% levels.
The good news is that we are approaching the point of confluence of all these 3 dynamic levels and of the 6800 static one, which is the 6th of April if I am analysing correctly. The price has to decide which direction to go by then, and it will affect following months behaviour of BTC .
A solid breakout of the 7000 level at daily or weekly close would increase the probability of a reversal from the bearish moment that lasts since June 2019 (almost 1 year guys!) and would set us on the upper part of the small channels for a confirmation of the trend.
A rejection of that level for the forth time in 2 weeks would inevitably lead to a confirmation of the bearish trend that can lead BTC at least at 4800 (half of the big bearish channel ), far below the 200weekly MA. Despite how attractive it could be in terms of price and further accumulation, I would like to avoid that scenario as it would mean that the recovery would be very very slow.
Beside pure TA, I tend to favour the first hypothesis as imo the 4-5k levels were just overreactions of tons of leveraged longs liquidated (they were accumulating for the halving). Also the 200MA always held the price in the past and is located at 5500ish. On shorter TFs, we are currently above 21-50-100-200 MA on the 1h and 2h . And more importantly, they are POSITIVELY sloped. The only exception is the 200 4h MA.
The market conditions are very ambiguous right now, If I should pick one direction I would say long, I also opened a small one at 6600 but I will wait for a breakout of 7000 or 6300 for a real investment decision.
Keep an eye on these days are they are crucial!
It may seem as a routinary situation for BTC, where bulls and bears fight to imprint the market direction. But this time, even if not realized by many, the winners of this battle will guide the direction in the following months.
We are currently at a crucial level of 6800 which is a very long term support/resistance from 2017.
The price is also within 3 channels, 2 short term upward ones, and 1 bearish medium term one (which was created at 14k peaks). Signals are controversial as we currently are at the top of the bearish one and at the bottom of the ascending ones (that are still holding), below their 50% levels.
The good news is that we are approaching the point of confluence of all these 3 dynamic levels and of the 6800 static one, which is the 6th of April if I am analysing correctly. The price has to decide which direction to go by then, and it will affect following months behaviour of BTC .
A solid breakout of the 7000 level at daily or weekly close would increase the probability of a reversal from the bearish moment that lasts since June 2019 (almost 1 year guys!) and would set us on the upper part of the small channels for a confirmation of the trend.
A rejection of that level for the forth time in 2 weeks would inevitably lead to a confirmation of the bearish trend that can lead BTC at least at 4800 (half of the big bearish channel ), far below the 200weekly MA. Despite how attractive it could be in terms of price and further accumulation, I would like to avoid that scenario as it would mean that the recovery would be very very slow.
Beside pure TA, I tend to favour the first hypothesis as imo the 4-5k levels were just overreactions of tons of leveraged longs liquidated (they were accumulating for the halving). Also the 200MA always held the price in the past and is located at 5500ish. On shorter TFs, we are currently above 21-50-100-200 MA on the 1h and 2h . And more importantly, they are POSITIVELY sloped. The only exception is the 200 4h MA.
The market conditions are very ambiguous right now, If I should pick one direction I would say long, I also opened a small one at 6600 but I will wait for a breakout of 7000 or 6300 for a real investment decision.
Keep an eye on these days are they are crucial!
Note
wow, that was fast! The close above 7k would be a great signal for the following weeks and monthsNote
Was a false breakout for the moment, but it still insisting on the 6800-7000 levels and consolidating above 6600. Atm, we are above the only MA that was "against" our view, the 200 4h one. We have time until 6th of April to see what happens.Trade active
The price broke up exactly at the confluence of the 6800 resistance and of the two channels (one ascending and the other descending). Still have not analysed whether it is a retracement of the recent dump or the beginning of the bullish phase. I will do it in the following days as prices evolve. Direction is 7700-8000 now anyway.Trade closed manually
I want to specify that the break of the 6800 resistence tells us that btc is safe and probably will avoid a prolonged stagnation period, does not mean that a nonstop run will happen. Indeed, a retracement at this stage is highly probable. Which levels? will tell you in a new idea
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Are you a good trader but you lack the capital?
Or simply you don't want to risk it?
Trade forex, oil, crypto, indices, and keep 80% of the profits you make, while losses are covered!
Check it out now → ftmo.com/en/?affiliates=2427
Or simply you don't want to risk it?
Trade forex, oil, crypto, indices, and keep 80% of the profits you make, while losses are covered!
Check it out now → ftmo.com/en/?affiliates=2427
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.