Good morning, traders. For those in the U.S., I hope your Independence Day was filled with good times, good friends, and good memories. If you joined us yesterday on the live stream, we discussed Bitcoin's price action and the expectation for it to ultimately retest support around $6200-$6300 (2 month old descending resistance line, possibly turned support, and the blue support box). I also mentioned the possibility that we may see price push up to $7000 before doing so. This latter option may be building itself up at the moment.
Since yesterday's live stream, we have seen price print a symmetrical triangle. This is clearly evident on the 6h chart. What I don't like about the pattern are the long wicks and small candle bodies. You generally want to see fuller bodied-candles within a pattern. This gives the pattern more strength. If price pushes through the symmetrical triangle resistance line, then I wouldn't expect to see price move much higher than $7000 or so at the most. However, with its current high (or one possibly created by a breach of the triangle's resistance that leads up to $7000) the inverse head and shoulders is really standing out. Any of you who have been following me know that I'm not a fan of head and shoulders patterns because they can often be deceiving, however the volume profile fits the left shoulder and head so far, and a retracement down toward the $6200-$6300 area would create a well-sized right shoulder apex. We would need to see volume continuing to expand at price moves up from the apex of that shoulder and breaks the neckline, however, in order to confirm the pattern. As always, if the pattern completes successfully as described, then we should expect a target of around $7800. I like that the 50 day average volume has continued to rise since its low right before the drop into what may be the left shoulder of this potential IHS. That began the solidifying of what seems to be the floor on this move down and we are seeing the volume expand as price has moved up. The price action on this move up from sub-$6000 remains quite similar to April's movement.
The 1h chart gives us a reason to believe that price will likely be headed for a retracement before a real push up toward $8000. RSI has created lower highs at each recent higher high price peaks. That being said, RSI does have room to move up before hitting that descending resistance line, and we could even potentially see it push through for that final move up. Overall, we have seen higher lows from RSI since the price low in the $5700s. We can also see that volume has been increasing since mid-point of the triangle.
See the 1D and 3D charts below as well.
Since yesterday's live stream, we have seen price print a symmetrical triangle. This is clearly evident on the 6h chart. What I don't like about the pattern are the long wicks and small candle bodies. You generally want to see fuller bodied-candles within a pattern. This gives the pattern more strength. If price pushes through the symmetrical triangle resistance line, then I wouldn't expect to see price move much higher than $7000 or so at the most. However, with its current high (or one possibly created by a breach of the triangle's resistance that leads up to $7000) the inverse head and shoulders is really standing out. Any of you who have been following me know that I'm not a fan of head and shoulders patterns because they can often be deceiving, however the volume profile fits the left shoulder and head so far, and a retracement down toward the $6200-$6300 area would create a well-sized right shoulder apex. We would need to see volume continuing to expand at price moves up from the apex of that shoulder and breaks the neckline, however, in order to confirm the pattern. As always, if the pattern completes successfully as described, then we should expect a target of around $7800. I like that the 50 day average volume has continued to rise since its low right before the drop into what may be the left shoulder of this potential IHS. That began the solidifying of what seems to be the floor on this move down and we are seeing the volume expand as price has moved up. The price action on this move up from sub-$6000 remains quite similar to April's movement.
The 1h chart gives us a reason to believe that price will likely be headed for a retracement before a real push up toward $8000. RSI has created lower highs at each recent higher high price peaks. That being said, RSI does have room to move up before hitting that descending resistance line, and we could even potentially see it push through for that final move up. Overall, we have seen higher lows from RSI since the price low in the $5700s. We can also see that volume has been increasing since mid-point of the triangle.
See the 1D and 3D charts below as well.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.