Bulls and bears require a breaktrough
Updated
Bitcoin moves in the framework of the previous analysis: we saw a break down the daily SMA50 to the predicted point 7900 - and then the next bounce up. Thus, bitcoin tested the "increased" daily SMA50 and simultaneously the line of Fibonacci resistance. Currently, bitcoin is still traded around the daily SMA50, while we can expect that some time it will continue to move within the 8050-8350.
Techn. indicators at 5-hour intervals do not give a clear idea of the trend: RSI=46 is neutral, STOCH=70 in the "buy" zone, and STOCHRSI=95 has already reached "overbought".
Daytime techn. indicators are sitting tight in the "sales" zone and continue to press downward, indicating a move to 7900(once again). An exception are 2 indicators: STOCHRSI and Williams, which are near the values of "oversold" - so you can expect a number of short-term jumps up to 8400-8500. All other daytime indicators indicate a downward movement: RSI=43, STOCH=26, MACD=-61, DMI=37.
If the bulls do not push bitcoin above daily SMA50 and the Fibonacci level, and then 8400-8500 (daily EMA10 and weekly EMA5) are not fixed - then the bears can again seize the initiative, and drop it to 7900.
To start the movement upwards - a powerful green candle (backed by FOMO) is needed with a one-time growth above 9000, because with an upward growth there are dozens of resistance lines, among the main ones: daily EMA200, SMA100, EMA 100, and weekly EMA10, 20.
On the other hand, there is a high probability that bitcoin continue to fall down after the rate fixes to 7900. And from this point, bears will try to push it down to 7600-7700 (weekly SMA/EMA50), or even lower to 7300-7400 (the border of the "pitch fan 6400" and daily SMA365).
Take care of your BTC, USD and health!
Techn. indicators at 5-hour intervals do not give a clear idea of the trend: RSI=46 is neutral, STOCH=70 in the "buy" zone, and STOCHRSI=95 has already reached "overbought".
Daytime techn. indicators are sitting tight in the "sales" zone and continue to press downward, indicating a move to 7900(once again). An exception are 2 indicators: STOCHRSI and Williams, which are near the values of "oversold" - so you can expect a number of short-term jumps up to 8400-8500. All other daytime indicators indicate a downward movement: RSI=43, STOCH=26, MACD=-61, DMI=37.
If the bulls do not push bitcoin above daily SMA50 and the Fibonacci level, and then 8400-8500 (daily EMA10 and weekly EMA5) are not fixed - then the bears can again seize the initiative, and drop it to 7900.
To start the movement upwards - a powerful green candle (backed by FOMO) is needed with a one-time growth above 9000, because with an upward growth there are dozens of resistance lines, among the main ones: daily EMA200, SMA100, EMA 100, and weekly EMA10, 20.
On the other hand, there is a high probability that bitcoin continue to fall down after the rate fixes to 7900. And from this point, bears will try to push it down to 7600-7700 (weekly SMA/EMA50), or even lower to 7300-7400 (the border of the "pitch fan 6400" and daily SMA365).
Take care of your BTC, USD and health!
Note
We have a good jump on bitcoin, and in the meantime I will remind you:If the bulls do not push bitcoin above daily SMA50 and the Fibonacci level +completed+, and then 8400-8500 (daily EMA10 and weekly EMA5) are not fixed +now watching attentively+ then the bears can again seize the initiative, and drop the it to 7900.
Note
Bulls raised bitcoin above daily SMA50 and Fibonacci levels, and are now fixed at 8400-8500 (daily EMA10 and weekly EMA5) - so the chances for bears are gradually decreasing.
This jump is associated with the breakdown of the downward channel, and also with the fact that the daytime indicators STOCHRSI and Williams were near the "oversold" values, and I assumed short-term jumping up to the first turn at 8400-8500.
For bears, it is possible to seize the initiative until the price has reached 8750 (daily EMA200 + weekly EMA10), after which bitcoin will switch to the side of bulls.
On the other hand, we did not see a powerful green candle with one-time and instant growth at least to 8750, and we did not see a sharp increase in volumes ... Maybe this is part of the manipulation on the weekend - before the opening of the workweek?
Techn. indicators on 5-hour intervals quickly moved to the "buy" zone, and such indicators as STOCHRSI, Williams, CCI have already reached "overbought" - which means that there may be a local downward to 8300.
Daytime techn. indicators remained partially in the "sell" zone or moved to a neutral position, indicating a downward to 8100. The indicators that signal the move down: STOCH = 28, MACD = -48, DMI = 34.
On the chart, I depicted the potential development of events from a bearish point of view. In this case, the higher the bitcoin is taken by bulls, the less chance to "break the trend" for the bears.
Take care of your BTC, USD and health!
Note
The last jump of Bitcoin to 8650 was connected with the breakdown of the descending channel, and also with the fact that at that time the daily indicators StochRSI and Williams were near the values of "oversold" - because of these factors a short-term jump was expected above the daily SMA50 and the Fibonacci level, and also above daily EMA10 and weekly EMA5.
Moreover, for bears it was possible take the initiative until the price reached 8750 (daily EMA200 + weekly EMA10) - and the bears decided not to miss this opportunity. Bitcoin went down according to the most predicted downward turn point, which I pointed out in the previous analysis.
At the present time, we are seeing the expected drop in bitcoin - the price has already fallen below the daily EMA10 and the "grown up" daily SMA50. And we can assume that the price will find short-term support in the daily SMA/EMA5 area. And eventually bitcoin can reach L/BB at 8150.
Techn. indicators at 5-hour intervals indicate conflicting movements: both up to 8450 and down to 8200.
Daytime techn. indicators have firmly moved to the "sell" zone and signaled downward movement to 7900: RSI=44, Stoch=35, StochRSI=34, MACD=-50, DMI=33, etc.
Thus, in aggregate, the factors speak of a downward movement to 8150-8200, with the lowest point to 7900.
Take care of your BTC, USD and health!
Note
Bitcoin moves down according to the latest analysis: short-term support at daily SMA / EMA5 area was quickly broken, and BTC reached L/BB at 8150, especially as this movement was indicated by 5H TI.Now 5H and daily TI turned completely into the "sell" zone, while StochRSI and Williams indicators are in the "oversold" field - so you can expect a slight stabilization in the range of 8250-8350, but not higher than M/BB.
On the other hand - daily TI provide even more "pressure" on bitcoin to the range of 7800-7900.
Note
As I pointed out yesterday in the updated analysis: first bitcoin broke down short-term support in the area of daily SMA/EMA5, then reached L/BB = 8150. As a result, 5H and daily TI StochRSI and Williams were in the field "oversold" - so bitcoin slightly went up to the predicted level of +/-8250 (the maximum I expected was 8350 and not higher than M/BB). And most importantly, I pointed out that the daily TI continued strong pressure down to 7800-7900 - today we have reached this point.At the present time, there is a high probability that bitcoin will continue to fall down, but only after the 7800-7900 is fixed. And from this point the bears will try to depress the rate down to 7600-7700 (weekly SMA/EMA50), or even lower to 7400-7500 (pitchfan=6400 and daily SMA365).
Since yesterday, 5H and daily TI have completely moved to the "sell" zone, and StochRSI and Williams indicators are still in the "oversold" field - so you can expect a small jump up to 8100 (M/BB projection).
Daily TI signal the movement down to 7600-7700 (weekly SMA/EMA50): RSI=38, Stoch=32, MACD=-100, CCI=-160, DMI=33, etc.
Thus, in aggregate, the factors indicate a possible jump to 8100, and then if the bears can densely consolidate below 8000 - then we should expect a downward movement to 7600-7700.
Nevertheless, and running ahead: if the bears hit the line 7300-7400 (pitchfan=6400, daily SMA365) and then the line 6900-7000 (pitchfan=6000) - then the next point is very low at 5500 (weekly EMA100).
Take care of your BTC, USD and health!
Note
Note
I am trading according to the chart. As of now, 5H and daily TI continue to be in the "sell" position, except for StochRSI and Williams - which are in the "oversold" position. Based on the last two indicators, I expected a small jump up to 8100 (projection M/BB) - but this has not happened yet. Bears are firmly dragging bitcoin down to 7600-7700 (weekly SMA/EMA50) - so for now there is no significant update in favor of bulls.Note
On May 12, in my analysis, I pointed out: for the formation of a new upwards cycle, bitcoin can drop up to 7400-7600 (weekly SMA50/EMA50) - today we have reached this point.Yesterday there was a sharp drop, even more dramatic than I pictured on the chart. Bitcoin quickly broke down the weekly SMA50/EMA50 and now found a short-term support for about two lines at 7300-7400: pitch fan @6400 and daily SMA365.
This point may become critical for a turn in favor of bulls - but if this support is broken, then you can count on the last turn up near the line 6900-7000 (pitch fan @6000).
In general, for the time being, the situation is not positive for bulls, because bitcoin can fall very low at 5500 (weekly EMA100).
5H and daily TI continue to be in the "sell" zone, while the indicators StochRSI, Williams, CCI are in the "oversold" field - so you can expect a small jump upwards of 7500-7600 (projection from M/BB). In general, the indicators signal the movement down to 6900-7150: RSI=32, Stoch=45, MACD=-190, DMI=44, etc.
Thus, in combination, the factors speak of possible scenarios:
1) a sharp turn up near the current 7300-7400;
2) a small jump not higher than 7500-7600;
3) the continuation of the fall to 6900.
I estimate that there may be a small jump and then stalling down to 6900.
Note
Note
invst.ly/7lqza
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.