BTC Possible HTF Creation 2 (update from first post):
Chart inverted; analysis below as if it weren't an inverted chart:
1) Weak highs as there isn't an SFP or some kind of big wick candle;
2) Price did break below a significant part of the HL structure but not the full structure (last HL hasn't been broken):
- The part it broke down below isn't outstanding enough to produce a big breakdown (my intuition tells me). It isn't a MSB as the last HL is still intact and the structure it did break below I think can't produce a big downmove (which then would create a MSB if it happened but I think would be weak and shortlived, likely to be capped at that outstanding low at 95k).
- Price didn't instantly break below structure, it first made a LH (April 10) which weakens the downmove significantly to where my intuition tells me there now can't be a full MSB being formed.
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No significance at highs (no SFP) nor big previous high being hit so no reason for trend shift.
Price did break some significant structure but not fully and not fast enough: it first produced a LH before breaking below it. that's key here: if it was a breakdown in one go then price would have broken below the structure very close to the structure making the structure way stronger in resistance and therefore the likelyhood of a real breakdown way higher. That price is consolidating now (so not going fast anymore) is fine: horizontality creates space for a move in either way. But the fact that price didn't break below the structure in one go is the important part which I think cancels out the breakdown.
Just looking at it simply, pure intuition. This will never break down as that structure which it broke down below isn't outstanding enough and there is not enough verticality (no strength). I would never short this.
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And now coming out of the inverted chart: If I would never short this this means I would never buy this at 82k.
But the HTF HL, I want to say it as an ego thing: will higly likely be an SFP of the Monday April 7 lowest low and I have put my 100% allocation on it (might take out some to buy the ETH lowest low of June 2022 as these moves would probably go together and ETH is the better investment if you want to make bigger profits)
This ego thing is a traders' mistake as you can never be 100% sure in trading so you should never put a limit order on a level in advance, but I'm a young guy and me buying the lowest low of the HTF HL with great potential I could be right is a risk I'm willing to take as the benefit of me being right (having THAT amount of conviction with serious high level analysis backing that conviction) would just prove to me that I'm one of the best in the world in trading BTC, and this mental benefit will flow into daily ordinary life as I would then have proof of this 'status' (forgive me people, I know better but I'm still young and I know having this ego thing now will create a laugh + will make me happy in the future) + gives me more rest to focus on my studies.
I accept the traders' mistake as this is a HTF HL environment, not an ordinary area in between.
Chart inverted; analysis below as if it weren't an inverted chart:
1) Weak highs as there isn't an SFP or some kind of big wick candle;
2) Price did break below a significant part of the HL structure but not the full structure (last HL hasn't been broken):
- The part it broke down below isn't outstanding enough to produce a big breakdown (my intuition tells me). It isn't a MSB as the last HL is still intact and the structure it did break below I think can't produce a big downmove (which then would create a MSB if it happened but I think would be weak and shortlived, likely to be capped at that outstanding low at 95k).
- Price didn't instantly break below structure, it first made a LH (April 10) which weakens the downmove significantly to where my intuition tells me there now can't be a full MSB being formed.
------------------------------
No significance at highs (no SFP) nor big previous high being hit so no reason for trend shift.
Price did break some significant structure but not fully and not fast enough: it first produced a LH before breaking below it. that's key here: if it was a breakdown in one go then price would have broken below the structure very close to the structure making the structure way stronger in resistance and therefore the likelyhood of a real breakdown way higher. That price is consolidating now (so not going fast anymore) is fine: horizontality creates space for a move in either way. But the fact that price didn't break below the structure in one go is the important part which I think cancels out the breakdown.
Just looking at it simply, pure intuition. This will never break down as that structure which it broke down below isn't outstanding enough and there is not enough verticality (no strength). I would never short this.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And now coming out of the inverted chart: If I would never short this this means I would never buy this at 82k.
But the HTF HL, I want to say it as an ego thing: will higly likely be an SFP of the Monday April 7 lowest low and I have put my 100% allocation on it (might take out some to buy the ETH lowest low of June 2022 as these moves would probably go together and ETH is the better investment if you want to make bigger profits)
This ego thing is a traders' mistake as you can never be 100% sure in trading so you should never put a limit order on a level in advance, but I'm a young guy and me buying the lowest low of the HTF HL with great potential I could be right is a risk I'm willing to take as the benefit of me being right (having THAT amount of conviction with serious high level analysis backing that conviction) would just prove to me that I'm one of the best in the world in trading BTC, and this mental benefit will flow into daily ordinary life as I would then have proof of this 'status' (forgive me people, I know better but I'm still young and I know having this ego thing now will create a laugh + will make me happy in the future) + gives me more rest to focus on my studies.
I accept the traders' mistake as this is a HTF HL environment, not an ordinary area in between.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.