Bitcoin – Doomsday Scenario
Updated
TLDR:
Although I am not at all bearish on Bitcoin, I think that as traders we should be prepared for every eventuality.
I listed the warning signs that may herald a bearish reversal and key level in which a reversal to the upside may be possible.
This is a limited scenario. I don’t think a 10K Bitcoin is likely and there is no point is discussing such a possibility ATM.
Bearish Signals:
Prelude: Allow me to point out that there are two huge liquidity pools between 20K to 23.8K. Market Makers don’t like to leave such an imbalance behind before taking the market higher. I am not saying that we have to retrace but, it’s a possibility.
1. The loss of the up trending diagonal support line.
The altcoin market is an example that once an up-trending support line is breached, more downside is likely. I can forgive a short period below the diagonal support but, a sustained or reoccurring break is the first sign of a downtrend.
For example: The loss of Bitcoin’s diagonal support that initiated the markdown phase in December of 2021.
you can look at almost all the altcoin charts and see the same picture.
2. The loss of the 25,200 USD horizontal support level.
You equivocate the 25,200 level to the 53K level during the bull market. It a crucial level because it is the difference between trading in a range to the beginning of an uptrend.
3. The loss of the 200 D EMA.
Currently at 23,800 USD. The 200 D EMA is the line in the sand. Once price breaks this level our bias is formally bearish, and traders will tend to go short on every opportunity.
4. The loss of the 23K level.
If you look at the VRVP, you will see a high-volume node at 23K. this level can be a reversal point for price or the final seal on Bitcoin’s coffin.
5. If we lose the 23K level, then it’s pretty much over and 20K will be next. If this happens, we’ll take it up from there. No use discussing it now.
Again, let me say that ATM I am looking for upside. However, we are traders, and we can make money if the market moves up or down. We need to be prepared and without bias clouding our judgment.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
Although I am not at all bearish on Bitcoin, I think that as traders we should be prepared for every eventuality.
I listed the warning signs that may herald a bearish reversal and key level in which a reversal to the upside may be possible.
This is a limited scenario. I don’t think a 10K Bitcoin is likely and there is no point is discussing such a possibility ATM.
Bearish Signals:
Prelude: Allow me to point out that there are two huge liquidity pools between 20K to 23.8K. Market Makers don’t like to leave such an imbalance behind before taking the market higher. I am not saying that we have to retrace but, it’s a possibility.
1. The loss of the up trending diagonal support line.
The altcoin market is an example that once an up-trending support line is breached, more downside is likely. I can forgive a short period below the diagonal support but, a sustained or reoccurring break is the first sign of a downtrend.
For example: The loss of Bitcoin’s diagonal support that initiated the markdown phase in December of 2021.
you can look at almost all the altcoin charts and see the same picture.
2. The loss of the 25,200 USD horizontal support level.
You equivocate the 25,200 level to the 53K level during the bull market. It a crucial level because it is the difference between trading in a range to the beginning of an uptrend.
3. The loss of the 200 D EMA.
Currently at 23,800 USD. The 200 D EMA is the line in the sand. Once price breaks this level our bias is formally bearish, and traders will tend to go short on every opportunity.
4. The loss of the 23K level.
If you look at the VRVP, you will see a high-volume node at 23K. this level can be a reversal point for price or the final seal on Bitcoin’s coffin.
5. If we lose the 23K level, then it’s pretty much over and 20K will be next. If this happens, we’ll take it up from there. No use discussing it now.
Again, let me say that ATM I am looking for upside. However, we are traders, and we can make money if the market moves up or down. We need to be prepared and without bias clouding our judgment.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
Note
I am monitoring this scenario but atm I see no cause for concern. above 28.5 we are golden.
below the upward sloping trendline, we should brace for impact.
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