BTC Market Strategy: Navigating Pullbacks & Breakout Risks
Most Relevant Timeframe for Entering a Position
• 2H and 4H can sometimes be too volatile. The 2H RSI is already above 80, pointing to a potential imminent pullback.
• 8H offers a good balance for trades lasting a few days, as the RSI is around 55, ISPD Div Pro around 0.72/0.53, and Mason’s around 0.20/0.19—indicating there’s still some room for upside.
• 12H and 1D show Satisfaction already above 0.5, which is less “comfortable” for starting a new long (higher risk of a local top).
Liquidation Map (1D) & ETF Flows
Liquidation Map (Coinglass, 1D)
• Significant potential long liquidation clusters exist in the 98–100k zone. This suggests that if BTC breaks above 97–98k convincingly, a short squeeze could be triggered.
• Conversely, multiple long liquidation levels are stacked around 93k and below, reinforcing the risk of a cascading sell-off if BTC breaks under 92–93k.
ETF Flows (Farside Investors)
• In the second half of February, several days saw negative net flows (e.g., –60.7M on Feb 17, –64.1M on Feb 19), with little to no major inflows.
• The lack of significant institutional buying suggests caution—without strong ETF support, a break above 98k remains uncertain.
Practical Approach
• Watch the 8H timeframe for a possible intraday pullback, then consider going long if the price bounces off support near 94k–95k.
• If you prefer very short-term intraday trading, look for a pullback on 2H/4H (where RSI might drop from 80 toward 50) before re-entering.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
• Supports
• 93,000–94,000 $: A significant technical support zone (also visible via Auto AVWAP Low on 4H/2H around 95k, marking the lower range).
• 92,000 $: A psychological threshold below which more stop orders could be triggered (OI LIQMAP).
• If there’s a strong break, 88,000–90,000 $ could serve as a second support tier.
• Resistances
• 96,000–97,000 $: Daily Tenkan area that has rejected price multiple times; also visible near the top of the 2H/4H range.
• 98,000–100,000 $: A major obstacle (often aligning with Auto AVWAP High and the upper Ichimoku zone on D1). Given the large long liquidation clusters in this area, a breakout above 98k could lead to a short squeeze.
• 102,000 $: According to Auto AVWAP High (Daily and 12H), this is the major resistance.
Operational Recommendations
1. Wait for a pullback
• On shorter timeframes (e.g., 2H), the RSI is very high. Better to wait for a retracement toward 94–95k before attempting to go long, especially if there’s a technical bounce and the RSI cools off.
2. Use a cautious stop
• Below 92k, there’s a risk of a cascade effect if the market seeks deeper liquidity.
3. Take partial profits
• If BTC crosses 98–100k without strong volume, consider partial profit-taking. ISPD Div Pro around 0.7–0.8 (on 12H/1D) often signals a potential slowdown.
4. Alternation scenario
• As long as there isn’t a clear daily close above ~98k–100k, a “flat-type” correction remains possible. A prolonged range or broader bearish structure could develop if macro factors (inflation, Fed decisions) weigh on the market.
General Conclusion
• Technical indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI) still suggest a short-to-medium-term bullish bias, but we are nearing “elevated” zones on 2H/4H and a Satisfaction reading above 0.5 on 12H/1D. This calls for caution.
• The liquidation map confirms key risk areas:
• Above 98k → Short squeeze possible if 97–98k breaks cleanly.
• Below 93k → Risk of cascading sell-off if 92–93k fails.
• The lack of ETF inflows raises concerns about institutional support—without a clear shift in inflows, BTC may struggle to hold gains above 98k.
• 8H remains the recommended timeframe for catching pullbacks without the extreme volatility seen on 2H.
• Key supports: 93–94k, then 92k. Key resistances: 96–97k, 98–100k, and further up at 102k.
Strategy
• Consider buying on a dip if BTC tests the 94–95k zone again and indicators (RSI/Mason’s) cool off.
• Take partial profits if momentum falters below 98–100k, as ISPD Div Pro above 0.7 can hint at exhaustion.
• Use a tight stop if price breaks decisively under 92k.
All in all, the short-term outlook remains bullish as long as 92–93k holds, but risks of consolidation or a deeper correction are increasing, particularly if institutional support remains weak or major market players trigger a liquidation event.
• 2H and 4H can sometimes be too volatile. The 2H RSI is already above 80, pointing to a potential imminent pullback.
• 8H offers a good balance for trades lasting a few days, as the RSI is around 55, ISPD Div Pro around 0.72/0.53, and Mason’s around 0.20/0.19—indicating there’s still some room for upside.
• 12H and 1D show Satisfaction already above 0.5, which is less “comfortable” for starting a new long (higher risk of a local top).
Liquidation Map (1D) & ETF Flows
Liquidation Map (Coinglass, 1D)
• Significant potential long liquidation clusters exist in the 98–100k zone. This suggests that if BTC breaks above 97–98k convincingly, a short squeeze could be triggered.
• Conversely, multiple long liquidation levels are stacked around 93k and below, reinforcing the risk of a cascading sell-off if BTC breaks under 92–93k.
ETF Flows (Farside Investors)
• In the second half of February, several days saw negative net flows (e.g., –60.7M on Feb 17, –64.1M on Feb 19), with little to no major inflows.
• The lack of significant institutional buying suggests caution—without strong ETF support, a break above 98k remains uncertain.
Practical Approach
• Watch the 8H timeframe for a possible intraday pullback, then consider going long if the price bounces off support near 94k–95k.
• If you prefer very short-term intraday trading, look for a pullback on 2H/4H (where RSI might drop from 80 toward 50) before re-entering.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
• Supports
• 93,000–94,000 $: A significant technical support zone (also visible via Auto AVWAP Low on 4H/2H around 95k, marking the lower range).
• 92,000 $: A psychological threshold below which more stop orders could be triggered (OI LIQMAP).
• If there’s a strong break, 88,000–90,000 $ could serve as a second support tier.
• Resistances
• 96,000–97,000 $: Daily Tenkan area that has rejected price multiple times; also visible near the top of the 2H/4H range.
• 98,000–100,000 $: A major obstacle (often aligning with Auto AVWAP High and the upper Ichimoku zone on D1). Given the large long liquidation clusters in this area, a breakout above 98k could lead to a short squeeze.
• 102,000 $: According to Auto AVWAP High (Daily and 12H), this is the major resistance.
Operational Recommendations
1. Wait for a pullback
• On shorter timeframes (e.g., 2H), the RSI is very high. Better to wait for a retracement toward 94–95k before attempting to go long, especially if there’s a technical bounce and the RSI cools off.
2. Use a cautious stop
• Below 92k, there’s a risk of a cascade effect if the market seeks deeper liquidity.
3. Take partial profits
• If BTC crosses 98–100k without strong volume, consider partial profit-taking. ISPD Div Pro around 0.7–0.8 (on 12H/1D) often signals a potential slowdown.
4. Alternation scenario
• As long as there isn’t a clear daily close above ~98k–100k, a “flat-type” correction remains possible. A prolonged range or broader bearish structure could develop if macro factors (inflation, Fed decisions) weigh on the market.
General Conclusion
• Technical indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI) still suggest a short-to-medium-term bullish bias, but we are nearing “elevated” zones on 2H/4H and a Satisfaction reading above 0.5 on 12H/1D. This calls for caution.
• The liquidation map confirms key risk areas:
• Above 98k → Short squeeze possible if 97–98k breaks cleanly.
• Below 93k → Risk of cascading sell-off if 92–93k fails.
• The lack of ETF inflows raises concerns about institutional support—without a clear shift in inflows, BTC may struggle to hold gains above 98k.
• 8H remains the recommended timeframe for catching pullbacks without the extreme volatility seen on 2H.
• Key supports: 93–94k, then 92k. Key resistances: 96–97k, 98–100k, and further up at 102k.
Strategy
• Consider buying on a dip if BTC tests the 94–95k zone again and indicators (RSI/Mason’s) cool off.
• Take partial profits if momentum falters below 98–100k, as ISPD Div Pro above 0.7 can hint at exhaustion.
• Use a tight stop if price breaks decisively under 92k.
All in all, the short-term outlook remains bullish as long as 92–93k holds, but risks of consolidation or a deeper correction are increasing, particularly if institutional support remains weak or major market players trigger a liquidation event.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.