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Bitcoin's Last Stretch

In this graph right here, I'll show what i believe is the last 5 wave structure before the big kahoona. Now, this isn't so much the big bold prediction of Bitcoin's next crash, but I think we can all agree that it's likely to happen. I'll actually post another prediction on Bitcoin for it's big correction. However, for now, lets look into what is in store before we get a major correction. Bitcoin itself is one hell of a Beast, and predicting it is already tough enough as it is. But I think now we have enough information to predict the next few waves.

Now, Bitcoin is finishing up its wave 2 correction. At first I thought we may have had one more subwave up, while there was one hefty buy wall of $1.3M on Bittrex at $16250. And that ONE (yes ONE) person moved the buy wall to $15500 and then to $15000 and ended up being my saving grace. Talk about market manipulation... But it turns out we just got a strong wave 1, with a somewhat truncated 5th wave in that first wave up. Now with this current correction i am now positive that that was wave 1. And we even have a nice confirmation on the 1hr MACD. The correction lead to a .5 fib retrace and it might double bottom at the $15100 level or a little lower, but i am very positive this is near the end correction. But what the hell do i know. Here on the chart i'm extrapolating a 1 to 1 Fib extension for wave 3 and a 1.618 to 1 fib extension for wave 5. This isn't likely, but we must always look out for extended waves, which could possibly happen.

Now, in the short term I am long. And I am going to give some ranges for our target to hit. If you try to give exact numbers, well.. you're always going to fail.

Target 1: $19,262 - $20,369

Remember that people like to dump at positive numbers, its a very market-psych thing to do. So I'm actually expecting a dump around $20,000. If thats the case then we are likely for a retrace to the .328 area at $18219. It could even go lower IF and only IF wave 3 extends above that range and gives more room for a wave 4 correction to the .618 level with the lowest possible correction of being at $17,131 with just the wick. But I'm expecting this next run to be fairly bullish and not have a large retrace.

Target 2: $21,631 - $23,043

Remember, these targets are only for Bittrex. It may defer on other trading sites have different prices for Bitcoin. Which is terrible for cryptocurrency, but I'm not gonna get into that now. Now this target (at least to me) could be the one that is VERY important to get out of once it reaches it. And my next screenshot could possibly show you why.

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Now first of all, this graph looks freaking weird. I hate log scale, but I needed to use it to fit everything in. The picture, however, is very clear and makes me even more confident that we are on the fifth wave and are looking for a big correction after we reach target 1 and 2. We just started working on wave 5, and corrections 2 and 4 kind of shook the ground beneath and made us worry a bit. But we've seen nothing yet. Notice on the RSI before each major correction we get a double top on the 3hr RSI, and we have not even seen one of those tops yet. I think waves 3 and 5 will deliver that for us. I can also confirm these waves on the 3hr MACD.

Now the corrections that we see here are the MOST likely to happen if these targets and corrections are reached and they should AT LEAST hit the target of the .328 level with the other support levels being:

$16,037 (.328)
$13,961 (.5)
$11,864 (.618)

And I am just putting this as scenario number 1. We have to watch closely, not lose hope, but also be patient and not try to catch the falling Samurai Sword too early. Why? Because Scenario 2 is a whole lot scarier and a whole let dangerous, and I will show you why.

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Now... This is scenario 2 on the Daily chart. This is why I say these recent corrections have nothing on this. And why you just simply cannot play it too early. I've confirmed these counts over time and it is only what makes sense it me. The large corrections that we have seen in the past would happen more slowly and they would take longer to fix themselves up. But that whole process has been accelerated recently, which is likely to happen when the growth is just too damn fast. Now, the lines to the right are the fib levels, or the support levels that we have along the major correction.

$14,089 (.328) *which is also around the .5 fib level of scenario 1, which makes this support even more strong*
$11,705 (.5) *Which is also around the .618 level of scenario 2, also making this support very strong*
$8,939 (.618) *Golden ratio, and also around the support level of sub wave correction 2 that we saw a week or 2 ago*
$5,126 (.728) *lol if it hits this guys we are entering a multi-year long bear market*

So as you see we have some pretty strong support zones. And personally, If I am a long term multi-million dollar bitcoin holder, I am NOT letting this thing fall below $10,000. That was a very psychological number that we surpassed, and If i have a lot of money in this thing, I'm throwing MILLIONS in a buy wall to stop it from going lower. However, people panic sell and will do anything when fear overcomes everything else. After that, I just don't see the $5,126 level being very realistic.

I think if there is a big correction, but i think that the market will still be bullish because of the implications of US futures, and just the overall progress and growth of the crypto-market itself. (We are still kind of in the outer edge of the early adopter stage and the market itself is NOT a bubble, there are too many pessimist, and people don't apply the fact that this market is limited and shared amongst the ENTIRE world in market cap. It is still a fraction of the size of Apple!!! PLENTY of room for more growth).

Now what could cause this big correction? I don't know. But there are a lot of conspiracies floating out there in the cryptosphere and none of them sound too good. I don't really read up on news, the charts tell me everything. If I see something unexpected happen in the charts, then I might check out what is going on. But what I've heard that might be a catalyst to a big drop in price is what is going on with South Korea and how they are having an "emergency" meeting on the regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges (Friday). They said they won't ban it, but anything could happen and it could be catastrophic to the price of Bitcoin (because of how much SK makes up of the overall crypto market). There's always the Tether and Bitfinex thing, too.

Nonetheless a BIG correction is upon us. Am I scared? HELL YES. lol no just kidding. Never scared, right? But I can tell you that I will be the most greedy when those are the most fearful (at least when the dust settles).

I will also update with another chart just simply showing the RSI and MACD and how we could use that to indicate the next Big Bang.

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Almost Forget one of the most important things!
This is how i am sure this is wave 5. Wave 3 hit half way between a 1-1 and 1-1.618 from Wave 1 and we can expect wave 5 to do nearly the same. If things go according to plan, I think taking profits at wave 3 would just be the safest thing to do. But there is about a 65-70% chance this happens. Which means there is a 35-30% chance that it doesn't. So don't follow this blindly (which I doubt any of you would).

One more thing. Lets not forget about these futures contracts for January. I'm sure there will be catalysts to help push the price up to meet somewhere in the ball park of where these contracts are if this correction were to happen.

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Again, sorry for grammar mistakes and things that just don't make sense. Pretty busy week for me, I tried to squeeze all of this is in in a short time frame #FinalsWeek

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Closer look at what i think is going on here with the correction and why I'm bullish on this next uptrend.
P.S. Doing anything to avoid studying for this exam tomorrow morning.

Trade active

Wave 2 Correction is in! Movin' On Uppp

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Looks like money is pouring out of Alts and back into Bitcoin. Wave 1 here we go.

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This is what i think is the wave 2 correction. We got a powerful wave 1, with a truncated 5th subwave. Truncated 5th waves have been happening a lot recently with Bitcoin. I think people are so eager to pour money into Bitcoin after they pump up alts, that Bitcoin's wave 1's are very impulsive, leaving wave 3 and 5 weaker and causing Altcoins to initially suffer.

We saw a lot of money pour into the market, and the money was just quickly transferred to from alts to Bitcoin. Which is the main cause for such a big drop.

Anyways, I think the one hour chart is the best perspective for this correction based off of previous waves and indicators.

Our initial target for primary wave 3 is still on course. But it depends on how wave 3 of this subwave turns out. That being said, I'm not quite sure if alts will be hit as hard as they were on this first wave. But I will allocate less in alts when Bitcoin reaches the bottom of this correction just in case.

When Bitcoin reaches the top of the primary wave I will certainly decrease allocation in alts because I expect a bloodbath when Bitcoin corrects again, I just don't know how fast or powerful the correction will initially be. But it may not be as bad as I think.

I'm always going to update because i'm freaking addicted to this shit and updating my ideas makes me a better Analyst. Good luck guys!

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Think this wave is done. If it is, guess whats happening? A shorter, weaker 3rd wave with the possibility of a truncated 5th! hahaha, If this is the end of the wave 3 I will start to scare myself. So honestly I hope i'm just being impulsive and that I'm very wrong. If this is the case then we are perfectlyyy on target.

This subwave 4 correction regardless of the fact will take longer and we come down more than the wave 2 correction, since we just barely corrected for a short term. So wave 4 correction target is about $18250 give or take $250. AND if this is done, we should get a 5th wave to our (plus or minus) $20,023 target.

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Noooo! we fell short of our target by 1.24%. BUT, we did barelyyy just hit our adjusted target box for wave 3 and hit well into our original target box! Right on track so far. For some odd feeling I'm feeling skeptical of the wave count, but EVERYTHING is going as planned. Congrats if you got in on that run there!

Right now I'm expecting an ABC correction, That MIGHT not correct that far and should give Alts some good hope right now. Correction wave 4 seems to be in play and we should be headed to our next target of the FINAL wave 5.

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Huh.. that C wave dropped a little farther than I thought, But it's still far away from our floor. The V formation formed at this correction is a little too bearish for me to think that the correction is over, even though I counted a 5 wave C wave. I think we may get an ABCDE correction here, just seems too quick. But I could be wrong!

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The velocity of that drop was very unexpected, and it just dropped slightly past the past the peak of our wave 1. Be VERY cautious here, I haven't counted this correction wave yet, I'm sure it is fine. But we are getting closer to that reversal level where this thing may turn on its head.

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Keep in mind that we also have a great deal of Bullish Divergence. Not seeing any more short term bearish signals

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Guys, 3 updates in 10 minutes. New record. But this may not be a good one. This is REALLY not looking good. 3 hr chart just entered bearish territory. It hasn't been in bearish territory since the correction from 7,800 to 5,400. Daily MACD is literally about to converge and we do have a second weaker high on RSI. Though, 3 peaks on the RSI happen ALOT and we are diverging up on our 3hr MACD, so I still think this last wave is going to happen. We just NEED a push higher than our previous high with strength or this thing is going down. I am not denying the possibility for a truncated fifth here. I'm liquidating my alts (since those don't perform that great during Bitcoin runs anyways) and I'm setting my stop-loss slightly below this previous low. Since I'm on vacation now I'm not fully on it. So I'm just doing this as a pre-cautionary measure. But I advise for you all to be very careful right now.

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Trade closed: stop reached

All of my trades are officially closed until I figure out whats going on. But it looks like this is going to be the bigger correction period.

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Afraid this is it. We may see a B wave push higher towards $18k from the point where we are now. But with Bitcoin I think it is fair to target the 55 and 100 EMA towards the $10k- range. Bitcoin is a leader in this industry, the DRIVER of the industry, so it is hard to think of this happening. BUT, my indicators tell me otherwise, and my indicators DONT LIE. I'm thinking an ABCDE correction. Right now we are STILL on A. And I THINK we should be starting B soon.

It is VERY hard to predict corrections. Corrections are one of the things where you see it happen and are like "Oh okay that was an XYZ blah blah blah." Very seldom are you able to say "we are going to get an XYZAS098IH#(#IQHORE!@#_." See what I mean? It's easier to do this for a 2 and 4 correction, but not a 5. However, if you use your indicators, they can help you guide your predictions. That's why I think we are going to get an ABCDE towards , using my indicators for guidance. When I get time I'll post a graph of what I'm thinking will occur. But I'm almost certain that it's not going above our previous high for a while. I'm studying every day, and I'll continue to get better.

What I'm also curious about how well certain altcoins perform. Last time Bitcoin dropped a lot, I made sure I paid attention to the coins that were well. And they were DASH, Cardano, Monacoin, Ethos, Delta, PowerLedger and for some reason, Antcoin. Of those 7, Dash, Monacoin, Ethos, Delta AND Antcoin are either unfazed or THRIVING right now. However, (to me) with this not being the actual BIG correction part of Bitcoin, I'm curious as to how they will do when that comes. Also thriving right now are BCC, Verge, BTG, Lisk, Z Cash, Bitshares, Siacoin, Komodo, and Reddcoin. The ones that are available on Bittrex, I am doing a TA on them when I come back from vacation. Until then, take advantage of this damn volatility people!!

We see a lot of shiners right now, but will there be ANY rising stars if Bitcoin goes down to ?? Next time, on Dragon BitZ.

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Be greedy when those are most fearful.

Guys, I'm still on vacation but I cannot help myself from these opportunities coming up. I've been keeping up with prices and they are eyeballing me in the face. What I see now are 5 pretty good sized waves coming down. A lot of wave analyst will misinterpret this as an ABC correction. Hopefully they are right, but I think Bitcoin has a lot more correcting to do.

Nonetheless, corrections are very hard to predict. But this one is very narrow, and I think the run downward is getting exhausted. I'm feeling risky, so I'm going to play this correction. My 3 hour MACD has been trying to push back up for a while, and the 1 hour is showing life. I think what's going to happen here is that we are going to get a double bottom on the 1 hour chart. Wave 5's on the C wave often fall short. Our entry point will come in IF and ONLY if we get a bullish divergence on the 1 hour RSI. This makes this trade very risky and hard to pinpoint.

Entry:
$13,800 - $14,800

Stop losses can vary based off of what we see, I think an appropriate stop loss is around $13,300. BUT i just can't see this thing going much lower too soon.

We are going to set our targets as previous resistance points. And they all vary on probability. So:

Target 1: $15,865 (High likely)
Target 2: $17,394 (Likely)
Target 3: $18,842 (Possible)

Remember, when you're playing a correction: patience, risk management, and laddering will be your friend here. Don't give up on the process, and always remember things will bounce after hard hits. Do NOT forget your stop losses and always ladder your buys for the best entry price possible. If you use your indicators properly, you will know that things can only go so high and only fall so low.

I will also upload coins that are likely going to boom, while maybe updating on some other coins to see where they are headed. I see this as stage 1 of long-term positions (just in case this IS the end of the correction), but I think we can re-enter a better stage for these long spots to develop. We will also keep in mind the coins that have been doing well while Bitcoin corrects when we reach the top of this (proposed) B wave.

Good luck guys!

Trade active

Going JUST as I imagined. Bullish reversal seems to be in line. Big buy wall at $14k. Trade is active until stop is reached.

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Welp told you guys it was a risky trade lol. If you didn't use a stop loss I would not worry. You just wont be as profitable. We're probably going to get another check donwards, but the 3 hour is VERY oversold. DO NOT SELL NOW. Guys everything bounces back if. If you sell now you will break my golden rule:

DONT sell in oversold conditions, and DONT buy in overbought conditions (unless you are scalping).

On the good news, it hit one of our correction targets and bounced off! I told you guys that 55 EMA is a BEAST.

Trade closed manually

Check out my new post on Bitcoin to follow this correction all the way through! This post is done! Congrats to all who got out of the market in time and were able to profit off of the Bitcoin run.

Elijah_Trading

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Elijah_Trading

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