Look Closely At This Chart
I'll explain exactly what is going on in this chart as it may not be clear:
The red line is the Weekly Moving Average, length 20. This acts as a fairly important marker for bearish or bullish momentum - times when Bitcoin is consistently below it indicate bear markets or at least shorter-term bearish periods, and likewise when Bitcoin holds above it, with occasional retests, it indicates a bull-market, or at least short term bullishness.
On close inspection, if we look to two particularly important moments, i.e. September 2019 and September 2020, we can find potential insight for where we are today.
In Aug-Sept 2019, BTC had formed a wedge pattern, and many assumed the bull-run had begun. However, the wedge that had formed was actually a flat-bottomed wedge, which some don't realise is a statistically bearish pattern.(I have indicated this pattern on the chart in yellow, although it is small you should be able to see it.)
At the exact moment that this wedge intersected with the 20 Weekly MA, BTC broke down. (Red square #1.)
It then retested the MA, and failed to get back above it, moving even lower. (Red Square #2.)
When we finally managed to move past the Covid dump, which I haven't bothered to indicate as it was a black swan, BTC got above the MA, and in Sept. 2020 retested it as support, which it finally held, and all bets were off as the bull-market began. (Green Square #1.)
Red Square #3 is fairly obvious - the highs were in (little did we know at the time), and as the 20 Weekly MA broke down, we saw real capitulation, and the first big lows of the new cycle.
We had a brief reprieve as BTC got its head above the MA temporarily, and tricked us into bullish sentiment with the retest that held. (Green Square #2).
But this was short lived - significant ATH's did not arrive, BTC retested the MA and failed below, with two failed retests (Red Squares #4 and #5). At this point the bear was confirmed, and the bull was over for this cycle. BTC didn't even manage a retest until Nov. 2020, which failed, leading to cycle lows.
Green Squares #3 and #4 are the beginning of the bullish trend we have seen since, with the exception of a short lived, minor dip below.
So now (last Green Square #5) we are at a pivotal moment. Is it Sept. 2019 or Sept. 2020? Only time will tell, but watching this MA could give us important information.
A couple of obvious difference this time around are: that we've already had a few tests of the MA, and that we haven't formed a flat-bottomed wedge, but rather an unconvincing broadening descending wedge pattern, which is unreliable and essentially meaningless at present.
Break the wedge and break the MA in EITHER direction, and you have solid information on the direction of the next move.
Hope this helps!
The red line is the Weekly Moving Average, length 20. This acts as a fairly important marker for bearish or bullish momentum - times when Bitcoin is consistently below it indicate bear markets or at least shorter-term bearish periods, and likewise when Bitcoin holds above it, with occasional retests, it indicates a bull-market, or at least short term bullishness.
On close inspection, if we look to two particularly important moments, i.e. September 2019 and September 2020, we can find potential insight for where we are today.
In Aug-Sept 2019, BTC had formed a wedge pattern, and many assumed the bull-run had begun. However, the wedge that had formed was actually a flat-bottomed wedge, which some don't realise is a statistically bearish pattern.(I have indicated this pattern on the chart in yellow, although it is small you should be able to see it.)
At the exact moment that this wedge intersected with the 20 Weekly MA, BTC broke down. (Red square #1.)
It then retested the MA, and failed to get back above it, moving even lower. (Red Square #2.)
When we finally managed to move past the Covid dump, which I haven't bothered to indicate as it was a black swan, BTC got above the MA, and in Sept. 2020 retested it as support, which it finally held, and all bets were off as the bull-market began. (Green Square #1.)
Red Square #3 is fairly obvious - the highs were in (little did we know at the time), and as the 20 Weekly MA broke down, we saw real capitulation, and the first big lows of the new cycle.
We had a brief reprieve as BTC got its head above the MA temporarily, and tricked us into bullish sentiment with the retest that held. (Green Square #2).
But this was short lived - significant ATH's did not arrive, BTC retested the MA and failed below, with two failed retests (Red Squares #4 and #5). At this point the bear was confirmed, and the bull was over for this cycle. BTC didn't even manage a retest until Nov. 2020, which failed, leading to cycle lows.
Green Squares #3 and #4 are the beginning of the bullish trend we have seen since, with the exception of a short lived, minor dip below.
So now (last Green Square #5) we are at a pivotal moment. Is it Sept. 2019 or Sept. 2020? Only time will tell, but watching this MA could give us important information.
A couple of obvious difference this time around are: that we've already had a few tests of the MA, and that we haven't formed a flat-bottomed wedge, but rather an unconvincing broadening descending wedge pattern, which is unreliable and essentially meaningless at present.
Break the wedge and break the MA in EITHER direction, and you have solid information on the direction of the next move.
Hope this helps!
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