A couple months ago “Camel” showed a chart made by someone, can’t remember who, who used the MFI indicator on a weekly scale specifically, to show the “TOPS” of cycles. With the indicator set at standard 14 length, you would use a trend line to touch the lows in an “uptrend”, and where the MFI crosses down below that trend line, that’s the top.
In the BTC chart I’ve plotted the trend lines and put “white circles” indicating the area where the MFI crosses below the trend line. I gotta say, it’s pretty accurate. I used the “vertical red lines” to show the “tops”. In the SP500 chart below, the plot and tops are indicted again and again, it’s pretty acurate. And that was the point of Camel showing this fellows indicator. However …
I got to thinking, I’m an RSI guy, and I plot the “bottom” of a cycle via trend line bottoms showing a bullish divergence. In a weekly time frame it’s very accurate at calling bottoms or, more specifically, the beginning of the uptrend. Using the same technique on the MFI brings the same results.
It wasn’t possible on the SP500 chart, but the BTC chart showed again accurate “bottoms” which are shown with trend lines and a “vertical green line” showing the beginning of the “uptrend”. In all the downtrends (the vertical red lines), the first MFI downtrend reversal was in fact, the low energy point for the downward portion of the cycle. This is indicated with the “red arrows”. From that point onwards the cycle basically bottomed and a reversal uptrend happens.
The moral of the story here is looking at the far right of the chart where we are now, the indications show a bottoming of energy and the beginning of a reversal uptrend. The indications do not in any way show the “top of cycle” is in . There’s just no room for the MFI to continue downward any great length to substantiate a “cycle top lots of downtrend to follow”. The MFI has entered the green band area where all reversals happen.
It appears in this bull run, BTC moves up in steps, three so far, and is at or very near the point of another upstep move soon to happen. The pullback in the prior two steps is a 21% in the first step and a 33% pullback in the second step. So far in this step we’ve have a 30% pullback possible saying the price is at or very near completed the pullback.
In summary, I’m watching for the MFI to turn upwards creating the v bottom. From there it’s upwards.
My thoughts, not financial advice Oklah. Cheers
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uJVHu0yT/
In the BTC chart I’ve plotted the trend lines and put “white circles” indicating the area where the MFI crosses below the trend line. I gotta say, it’s pretty accurate. I used the “vertical red lines” to show the “tops”. In the SP500 chart below, the plot and tops are indicted again and again, it’s pretty acurate. And that was the point of Camel showing this fellows indicator. However …
I got to thinking, I’m an RSI guy, and I plot the “bottom” of a cycle via trend line bottoms showing a bullish divergence. In a weekly time frame it’s very accurate at calling bottoms or, more specifically, the beginning of the uptrend. Using the same technique on the MFI brings the same results.
It wasn’t possible on the SP500 chart, but the BTC chart showed again accurate “bottoms” which are shown with trend lines and a “vertical green line” showing the beginning of the “uptrend”. In all the downtrends (the vertical red lines), the first MFI downtrend reversal was in fact, the low energy point for the downward portion of the cycle. This is indicated with the “red arrows”. From that point onwards the cycle basically bottomed and a reversal uptrend happens.
The moral of the story here is looking at the far right of the chart where we are now, the indications show a bottoming of energy and the beginning of a reversal uptrend. The indications do not in any way show the “top of cycle” is in . There’s just no room for the MFI to continue downward any great length to substantiate a “cycle top lots of downtrend to follow”. The MFI has entered the green band area where all reversals happen.
It appears in this bull run, BTC moves up in steps, three so far, and is at or very near the point of another upstep move soon to happen. The pullback in the prior two steps is a 21% in the first step and a 33% pullback in the second step. So far in this step we’ve have a 30% pullback possible saying the price is at or very near completed the pullback.
In summary, I’m watching for the MFI to turn upwards creating the v bottom. From there it’s upwards.
My thoughts, not financial advice Oklah. Cheers
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uJVHu0yT/
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.