Bullish bias still valid but the risk of horrible fall is real.
Remember on the previous analysis which we shared about how we measure the bullish momentum only based on the Fibonacci retracement level which the key is on the fractals of the movement.
The similar method has been doing in the bitcoin in higher time frame which we measure it from the swing high just slightly before the price started to show us current bearish movement. However, current momentum can be in a huge bearish structure if the price fails to break above the $24842 region as current key level which the bottom of the price could be very far away below current level.
Based on previous structure when we see the price dropped from the ATH of $69000 to the area of $33000, we see major relief rally to take out the .382 Fibonacci retracement level first before it continued to goes down even more. This condition generally known as the relief rally to avoid the extreme oversold condition and healthy market.
During the movement of any trend, the next sub trend is very likely to repeat the behavior which occurred on the previous sub trend which in this case, we assume the possible upside spike to at least .382 Fibonacci retracement level as the relief rally. However, this fractals assumption may ends in failure because there isn't enough bullish momentum that can drives the price to the higher level and it just can't breaks above the .236 Fibonacci retracement level.
If the rejection of the .236 Fibonacci retracement level is valid, we may see harder fall on the next downside movement because simply we see a weaker momentum of relief rally comparing previous sub wave structure.
For sure, the bias is still bullish for now as the price hasn't breached the lower line of current bearish flag as a support trend line but for sure getting rejected right at the yellow zone will be another concern for us.
The similar method has been doing in the bitcoin in higher time frame which we measure it from the swing high just slightly before the price started to show us current bearish movement. However, current momentum can be in a huge bearish structure if the price fails to break above the $24842 region as current key level which the bottom of the price could be very far away below current level.
Based on previous structure when we see the price dropped from the ATH of $69000 to the area of $33000, we see major relief rally to take out the .382 Fibonacci retracement level first before it continued to goes down even more. This condition generally known as the relief rally to avoid the extreme oversold condition and healthy market.
During the movement of any trend, the next sub trend is very likely to repeat the behavior which occurred on the previous sub trend which in this case, we assume the possible upside spike to at least .382 Fibonacci retracement level as the relief rally. However, this fractals assumption may ends in failure because there isn't enough bullish momentum that can drives the price to the higher level and it just can't breaks above the .236 Fibonacci retracement level.
If the rejection of the .236 Fibonacci retracement level is valid, we may see harder fall on the next downside movement because simply we see a weaker momentum of relief rally comparing previous sub wave structure.
For sure, the bias is still bullish for now as the price hasn't breached the lower line of current bearish flag as a support trend line but for sure getting rejected right at the yellow zone will be another concern for us.
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