BTCUSD Short
Updated
We've been in this flag for a while. I am looking to capitalize on a retrace to past previous support zones on the weekly timeframes, 50-52k.
The last weekly candle had a strong engulfing close.
The current weekly candle started pushing upwards which brings me to the overall play, a short once the weekly candle flips on itself and breaks the current low.
The current H4 chart is starting to align with the overall vision, same engulfing candle driving price down to the entry point zone. I usually expect the same "movement conditions" as the last time we were in a determined zone and from 57,000 to 54500 we should have a somewhat similar clean move down. My goal is to clear my risk once we go down to 54500.
I am expecting the US rate cuts to drive the price further down to retest the 50-52 thousand range. The overall idea in the rate cuts is rather simple. A rate cut implies that more investment opportunities will then be "profitable" when compared to other investment vehicles, therefore a lot of people/banks that are holding to BTC for hedging purposes, will now be tempted to resume with other investments and thus driving down the price of BTCUSD.
Other major economies are expected to lower their marginal lending rates as well, so this can easily play out for a while.
Interest Rate Cut dates:
If the first target is hit, then partials are to be taken out and a residual position will be left as a runner with a trailing stop.
The last weekly candle had a strong engulfing close.
The current weekly candle started pushing upwards which brings me to the overall play, a short once the weekly candle flips on itself and breaks the current low.
The current H4 chart is starting to align with the overall vision, same engulfing candle driving price down to the entry point zone. I usually expect the same "movement conditions" as the last time we were in a determined zone and from 57,000 to 54500 we should have a somewhat similar clean move down. My goal is to clear my risk once we go down to 54500.
I am expecting the US rate cuts to drive the price further down to retest the 50-52 thousand range. The overall idea in the rate cuts is rather simple. A rate cut implies that more investment opportunities will then be "profitable" when compared to other investment vehicles, therefore a lot of people/banks that are holding to BTC for hedging purposes, will now be tempted to resume with other investments and thus driving down the price of BTCUSD.
Other major economies are expected to lower their marginal lending rates as well, so this can easily play out for a while.
Interest Rate Cut dates:
- EUR / 12 Sept 2024
- CAD / 4 Sept 2024
- USD / 18 Sept 2024
If the first target is hit, then partials are to be taken out and a residual position will be left as a runner with a trailing stop.
Trade active
Trade going well, with a strong downwards move. I'm looking to add to it if we see a clear bounce to retest the last support that was holding us.
tradingview.com/x/aAc7AFAK/
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed. I got a good chunk and I won't be able to overlook the trade during the weekend.
I'll be looking for reentries in the near future.
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