Update of the Cryptocurrency Market and Bitcoin (September 05, 2019): Bitcoin at a critical decision point. Current price of Bitcoin: USD $ 10,580 / Bitcoin.
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As we have always said, right now Bitcoin is "The mother of all currencies." We have already substantiated why it is important to follow and analyze it constantly. What Bitcoin does, makes the market behave in very defined ways, which we have already covered in other updates. (See: Why always follow Bitcoin? [SPANISH]: youtu.be/_J9LWrHEpTE)
In our latest market update we projected a consolidation period for bitcoin. These stages are moments where the market “rests and takes a breath”, and then makes a move. These are stages where “institutional money” (big market speculators or “whales”) silently move their money. The stages of consolidation can be of two types:
1) Distribution: slowly and silently the great speculators are “releasing” or selling their positions without drastically altering the price; emptying their "inventory of positions". This is done to a point where the current price can no longer be sustained and there are more sellers than buyers. This difference in the market balance causes the price to fall. The big speculators and intelligent investors take advantage of this opportunity and enter SHORT (Shorting) winning in the price’s fall.
2) Accumulation: the other type of consolidation is where the market, especially large speculators, gradually accumulate Bitcoin thus filling their inventories, to a point where there are no longer so many sellers for the number of buyers, bringing the price higher and higher . This is where the entire market enters in euphoria and there are more and more buyers until the price reaches a new period of consolidation.
The process in both cases seems easy and obvious to read, but many (much of the traders and investors) do not see this key moment until it is too late. In fact, it is difficult if the correct clues are not evaluated in order to detect when and how these movements will take place… You have to be prepared!
Where is Bitcoin and where is it going?
Seeing the Chart, we see that Bitcoin is caught in a consolidation that is at the same time a very common formation or Pattern: "The Bullish Pennant". This formation is commonly characterized by a very obvious ascent (flag’s pole) sometimes aggressive and then the price is trapped in a triangle, in this case descending with horizontal support.
The “Bullish Pennant” normally breaks upwards but confirmation is needed until the resistance is exceeded (Triangle’s Roof) since there is a possibility that it could break the support and its price will fall.
In this case you have to be much more careful since the descending triangles with horizontal support tend to break down.
These formations tend to “catch” the price inside the triangle by bouncing it between the roof and the floor of the triangle, to the point of decision: the vertex of the triangle. Normally the market makes its decision just near that convergence of support and resistance. Bitcoin is reaching this point, additionally its volatility index is decreasing along with its volume. This indicates that the market is preparing for a movement. Up or down? And a better question is: when?
In our private community of Investors and Traders we have been advising about the price projections of the Market and Bitcoin. Taking into account where the price of Bitcoin comes from, and its cycles, everything indicates that we will continue to our next great resistance of US $ 16,000. However, as we already mentioned we need confirmation when waiting for a break of your roof (resistance), or your floor (support). The best action we can take is to be prepared, and that is where it is extremely important to answer when.
Everything we have analyzed so far is from a technical point of view, and under this lens the convergence of the triangle gives us a good indication that we can expect this movement between the end of September and the beginning of October. That allows us, getting closer to those days, to prepare ourselves to have no compromised positions in the opposite direction of the movement, making it easier for us to take positions on the LONG side (buying) or the SHORT (selling), but in both cases obtaining profits.
Now, this time something very good is happening. The information and fundamental analysis (information, announcements, expectations, etc.) agree with the technical review. When this synchronization of analysis occurs, technical and fundamental, it is like having all the chances in our favor.
Why, in addition to the technical perspective, do we expect a movement by the end of September and the beginning of October?
There are two main reasons: 1) Most Futures contracts (Bitmex and CBOE) expire on September 27. Historically, the expiration of Futures contracts moves the market around those days.
2) Start of trading the new Bakkt’s contract Futures (bakkt.com), approved by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This makes it very appealing for institutional money, but unlike CBOE contracts, this new instrument liquidates contracts in Bitcoin and not in dollars. At the end of the contract, the Investors will get bitcoin “on their hands”. This has drawn a lot of attention from the big speculators of traditional markets and gives them greater peace of mind to invest. This point tilts the balance on a possible upward movement and continuity of trend.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin or Invest in the Cryptocurrency market? The answer is NO and YES. If you have no knowledge of the market, you are playing the lottery, and an intelligent investor does not bet, therefore the answer is NO. But if you know what you are doing, know how to read the market or have delegated this function to connoisseurs of this "instrument" so different and challenging than traditional investing vessels, you can take advantage of the movement in any of the directions it takes. You just need to know how to read the next step Bitcoin will take.
Read: Bitcoin Status (June 24, 2019) [Spanish]: bit.ly/2LaP3el
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