Bitcoin has had its first healthy move up in a very long time. As you can see in our other previous rallies of 2018, each rally has had several $1000 daily candles. Now we see a slow and steady climb up which more sustainable, continuously making higher lows and with each dip getting bought up quickly. The bulls are now approaching massive resistance, which I will go through below.
1. 0.618 fib level.
On our last two rallies, this is the Fibonacci retracement Bitcoin has been rejected from. We are now approaching this level again, a key resistance to key an eye on.
2. Horizontal resistance.
The region of $7500 on our last 2 rallies has had a lot of consolidation on both the move up and down, so we will see a horizontal resistance here.
3. 200 EMA.
The 200EMA is sitting on $7550 at the moment on the daily, which is going to add to the resistance.
4. Triangle downwards resistance line
This is a valid resistance that has been playing out for 9 months now.
5. Rising wedge.
On the 4h you can clearly see BTC in a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern.
6. 5th Elliott Wave.
I have done an Elliott Wave count, and using the Fibonacci extension, the end of wave 5 has a valid target of $7500, before we get our correction.
7. Volume is not great.
For a real reversal I would have liked to see more volume, but I believe this low volume is because of indecision. Are we in disbelief?
If we break though this trend line, we will ideally see a massive spike in volume.
If the bulls come together and break through the resistances, I believe we will have entered into a real reversal attempt here, if we cannot this was just another dead cat bounce. From a TA perspective I believe it will break down, but my heart is saying we are going to break through resistance, and at least short term we are going to see a nice move upwards. If we break down and hold $6,000 support again, from the triangle we should see a decision mid-September to start of November time.
So to conclude, Bitcoin from a technical analysis perspective is looking very bearish and this is a great opportunity to go short. I will be laddering shorts from $7500 as from my trading plan I cannot yet this go, but I do have a strong feeling we will be breaking through this level. I would be very happy to see a 2019 bull market!
1. 0.618 fib level.
On our last two rallies, this is the Fibonacci retracement Bitcoin has been rejected from. We are now approaching this level again, a key resistance to key an eye on.
2. Horizontal resistance.
The region of $7500 on our last 2 rallies has had a lot of consolidation on both the move up and down, so we will see a horizontal resistance here.
3. 200 EMA.
The 200EMA is sitting on $7550 at the moment on the daily, which is going to add to the resistance.
4. Triangle downwards resistance line
This is a valid resistance that has been playing out for 9 months now.
5. Rising wedge.
On the 4h you can clearly see BTC in a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern.
6. 5th Elliott Wave.
I have done an Elliott Wave count, and using the Fibonacci extension, the end of wave 5 has a valid target of $7500, before we get our correction.
7. Volume is not great.
For a real reversal I would have liked to see more volume, but I believe this low volume is because of indecision. Are we in disbelief?
If we break though this trend line, we will ideally see a massive spike in volume.
If the bulls come together and break through the resistances, I believe we will have entered into a real reversal attempt here, if we cannot this was just another dead cat bounce. From a TA perspective I believe it will break down, but my heart is saying we are going to break through resistance, and at least short term we are going to see a nice move upwards. If we break down and hold $6,000 support again, from the triangle we should see a decision mid-September to start of November time.
So to conclude, Bitcoin from a technical analysis perspective is looking very bearish and this is a great opportunity to go short. I will be laddering shorts from $7500 as from my trading plan I cannot yet this go, but I do have a strong feeling we will be breaking through this level. I would be very happy to see a 2019 bull market!
Note
Bitcoin reached a top of $7440 before having a big 15% move down over the space of 2 days. This highlights the importance of always sticking to your trading plan, not emotions. My heart wanted to go long, but my technical analysis was saying we will not break the resistance and go short. Technical analysis won and we had our price drop. If you're out of position, we're currently we are in a no trade zone. I'm waiting for more data in our current range too see how i will be playing Bitcoin, need more confirmation.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.