I keep seeing a good majority of the community waiting on the edge of their seat for this anticipated relief bounce or potential bottom. I know this post is going to be met with heavy resistance but I ask all of you to just take a minute and really take in what I'm presenting. Let's take a step back from the TA for a second and think more in a psychological manner.
If everyone is waiting for specific price action in any market, how often does it play out the way the majority consensus was? And how often does it not? Do markets flow where everyone thinks they are going to flow and everyone gets rich? The answer is an astounding NO!
I see many charts with a perspective that we are just in a normal situation and everything is going accordingly. Like there is some predetermined path and it will follow it loyally. In reality, we are as far off the path as we have ever been in the last decade outside of the Covid Crash.
Now, let's get into the TA specifics where I'm basing half of my analysis on. The first thing we notice is a break-down of a local downward channel which when presented by a local uptrend, could be a bullish sign but again we see a complete breakdown. Take a look at the Daily RSI, for example, we see a breakdown of the bullish trend that lasted 56 Days. This is not necessarily a short trend and locally this is the strongest trend we have seen. A breakdown from this level created very strong resistance and it is likely that BTC will not be able to break back above it. At this moment in time, there is no reason to believe the next real bounce is anything other than a retest of this RSI Trendline.
You will see post after post calling for the bottom when this happens and in my humble opinion, the bottom is nowhere near. Until we see a flash crash and complete liquidation BTC can NOT rise. Take a look at every single time Bitcoin has ever reversed the Bearish trend and successfully broke out. It is under almost the exact same circumstances. One of which BTC has not seen yet.
Let me give you a few of the best examples I have found from previous Bear Market Reversals;
This is probably the best example which is from the Bear Market after the 2017 Bull Run.
Here is another example from the Bear Market proceeding the 2013 Bull Run.
And Another near the same time. This one was particularly strong.
This is what I'm personally looking for before I ever dream of BTC reversing this immense Downward Pressure. These also presented themselves many Months after the Bear Market took control and we have only broken down for roughly 60 days or so. Remember, a DECADE long trend is on the verge of breaking. Ask yourself why this would possibly happen and what it may mean for the future? Don't get caught up in short-term movements and endless calls for the moon. Stay focused on the big picture. Once you understand that, you can focus on the micro.
Hope this analysis helps in any way, thank you for taking the time to read the post! Best of luck everyone! Comments are more than welcome;
If everyone is waiting for specific price action in any market, how often does it play out the way the majority consensus was? And how often does it not? Do markets flow where everyone thinks they are going to flow and everyone gets rich? The answer is an astounding NO!
I see many charts with a perspective that we are just in a normal situation and everything is going accordingly. Like there is some predetermined path and it will follow it loyally. In reality, we are as far off the path as we have ever been in the last decade outside of the Covid Crash.
Now, let's get into the TA specifics where I'm basing half of my analysis on. The first thing we notice is a break-down of a local downward channel which when presented by a local uptrend, could be a bullish sign but again we see a complete breakdown. Take a look at the Daily RSI, for example, we see a breakdown of the bullish trend that lasted 56 Days. This is not necessarily a short trend and locally this is the strongest trend we have seen. A breakdown from this level created very strong resistance and it is likely that BTC will not be able to break back above it. At this moment in time, there is no reason to believe the next real bounce is anything other than a retest of this RSI Trendline.
You will see post after post calling for the bottom when this happens and in my humble opinion, the bottom is nowhere near. Until we see a flash crash and complete liquidation BTC can NOT rise. Take a look at every single time Bitcoin has ever reversed the Bearish trend and successfully broke out. It is under almost the exact same circumstances. One of which BTC has not seen yet.
Let me give you a few of the best examples I have found from previous Bear Market Reversals;
This is probably the best example which is from the Bear Market after the 2017 Bull Run.
Here is another example from the Bear Market proceeding the 2013 Bull Run.
And Another near the same time. This one was particularly strong.
This is what I'm personally looking for before I ever dream of BTC reversing this immense Downward Pressure. These also presented themselves many Months after the Bear Market took control and we have only broken down for roughly 60 days or so. Remember, a DECADE long trend is on the verge of breaking. Ask yourself why this would possibly happen and what it may mean for the future? Don't get caught up in short-term movements and endless calls for the moon. Stay focused on the big picture. Once you understand that, you can focus on the micro.
Hope this analysis helps in any way, thank you for taking the time to read the post! Best of luck everyone! Comments are more than welcome;
Note
Total Market Cap is currently testing a very important Bullish Trendline it has broken down from. If it fails to break back above this level, downward pressure will pick up significantly.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.