🤖 #BTCLIVE - 09.08 - #IDEA 🤖
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 09.08 - #IDEA 🤖
60:40 Mid-Term
Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Current Status:
Big rejection hit as outlined in yesterdays BTCLIVE with TD9's, Exhaustion candle and bearish divergence into resistance - multiplied by the Tornado Cash blacklisting. We have taken out the high support of 23.8k and looking to test the more critical support of 23.2k. There is a large amount of support in this area:
- 50EMA
- 20 EMA
- Weekly Pivot
- CME Gap
- Trendline
- Potential Bullish Divergence
That should hopefully, the key analysis is the bullish divergence that is not confirmed yet but could help support a retest and bounce here. A long with a pretty tight stop-loss here could be an option, although keep the stop-loss tight - very high risk. The only issue is that there is a considerably amount of unpredictable new circulating atm, especially the Tornado Cash blacklisting as this could be a floodgate to other services and the depth may be quite damaging as it is unlikely this will be isolated to just Tornado Cash. The rest of the news is not particularly impactful so just keep an eye on how this unfolds - it will be interesting to see what the US does when on line. On the whole I am still more bullish than bearish
Bullish Scenario
Bounce here at 23.2k and track up to longterm range target of
25K - 26k. A lot of TA suggesting a possible bounce along with a lot of volume if the US market doesnt drop the price below 
23K the it would all be relatively bullish.
Bearish Scenario
If the Tornado Cash impact unfolds to affect more services then unloading of BTC reserves could start occurring - I believe this was the cause of the recent dump - a daily close below 23.2k would likely lead to further downward pressure with a realistic target of 22k.
Key News:
+ Iran completes its first foreign trade worth $10 million using #cryptocurrency.
- @circlepay 's USDC has officially blacklisted every Ethereum address sanctioned by the US Treasury
+ 100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence
+ UAE-based retail store Day To Day will accept #Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment methods.
- #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th.
- U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash.
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/recent-actions/20220808
- Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’
beincrypto.com/singapore-based-hodlnaut-halts-withdrawals-citing-market-conditions/
Metrics:
Exchange
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain
- aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
+ Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses.
+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 30.00% compared to yesterday.
- Active Addresses - The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -4.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 2.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend.
- Liquidation - 22775722.97 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
60:40 Mid-Term
Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Current Status:
Big rejection hit as outlined in yesterdays BTCLIVE with TD9's, Exhaustion candle and bearish divergence into resistance - multiplied by the Tornado Cash blacklisting. We have taken out the high support of 23.8k and looking to test the more critical support of 23.2k. There is a large amount of support in this area:
- 50EMA
- 20 EMA
- Weekly Pivot
- CME Gap
- Trendline
- Potential Bullish Divergence
That should hopefully, the key analysis is the bullish divergence that is not confirmed yet but could help support a retest and bounce here. A long with a pretty tight stop-loss here could be an option, although keep the stop-loss tight - very high risk. The only issue is that there is a considerably amount of unpredictable new circulating atm, especially the Tornado Cash blacklisting as this could be a floodgate to other services and the depth may be quite damaging as it is unlikely this will be isolated to just Tornado Cash. The rest of the news is not particularly impactful so just keep an eye on how this unfolds - it will be interesting to see what the US does when on line. On the whole I am still more bullish than bearish
Bullish Scenario
Bounce here at 23.2k and track up to longterm range target of
25K - 26k. A lot of TA suggesting a possible bounce along with a lot of volume if the US market doesnt drop the price below 23K the it would all be relatively bullish. Bearish Scenario
If the Tornado Cash impact unfolds to affect more services then unloading of BTC reserves could start occurring - I believe this was the cause of the recent dump - a daily close below 23.2k would likely lead to further downward pressure with a realistic target of 22k.
Key News:
+ Iran completes its first foreign trade worth $10 million using #cryptocurrency.
- @circlepay 's USDC has officially blacklisted every Ethereum address sanctioned by the US Treasury
+ 100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence
+ UAE-based retail store Day To Day will accept #Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment methods.
- #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th.
- U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash.
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/recent-actions/20220808
- Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’
beincrypto.com/singapore-based-hodlnaut-halts-withdrawals-citing-market-conditions/
Metrics:
Exchange
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain
- aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
+ Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses.
+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 30.00% compared to yesterday.
- Active Addresses - The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -4.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 2.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend.
- Liquidation - 22775722.97 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
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