BTC - My Next Step
Several days ago I unloaded all but my core positions. I laid out my long term vision and short term vision. I'm right where I want to be - flush with cash, not suffering drawdowns, and looking for my next position. I said I would add 25% back in at 46-47K, and another 25% if the bounce off 46-47K was strong. So why haven't I added 25% yet?
The answer is simple - that was my plan yesterday. Today, I'm watching price action to confirm support at this level. Despite the fact that this should serve as a bottom if the rally is for real, I dont see it in the price action yet. I see support as I expected, but I need to see selling dry up, and the buyers start to step in.
A bearish RSI divirgence has been a big red flag for me - I've written that its one main reason I think this may be a relief rally versus continuation of the bull run. The RSI continues to set lower highs and lower lows. The RSI just took out a key low. This is one main reason I haven't started buying.
I expected BTC to break the lower channel trend line. I like trend lines because they give me some set of expectations. I rarely buy off of them, but will sometimes sell them. For every trend line I draw, I know at some point it will break down.
On chain metrics do show some additions of addresses with >1,000 BTC. Not enough to say the bull run is on, but better than 0 increases that we've seen during this relief rally. I'm hoping that sentiment has truly turned, and these big players will step in on this correction. This metric is key to knowing the next bull run is coming. The options strike prices indicate price should close today around 47K. Tomorrow I show they favor BTC going to 45-46K.
Right now I'm watching price action. Volume is low. Its a weak sell-off from sellers. However, the buyers are very defensive. I suspect that will change if the market shows a stable bottom. I'm watching and waiting.
The answer is simple - that was my plan yesterday. Today, I'm watching price action to confirm support at this level. Despite the fact that this should serve as a bottom if the rally is for real, I dont see it in the price action yet. I see support as I expected, but I need to see selling dry up, and the buyers start to step in.
A bearish RSI divirgence has been a big red flag for me - I've written that its one main reason I think this may be a relief rally versus continuation of the bull run. The RSI continues to set lower highs and lower lows. The RSI just took out a key low. This is one main reason I haven't started buying.
I expected BTC to break the lower channel trend line. I like trend lines because they give me some set of expectations. I rarely buy off of them, but will sometimes sell them. For every trend line I draw, I know at some point it will break down.
On chain metrics do show some additions of addresses with >1,000 BTC. Not enough to say the bull run is on, but better than 0 increases that we've seen during this relief rally. I'm hoping that sentiment has truly turned, and these big players will step in on this correction. This metric is key to knowing the next bull run is coming. The options strike prices indicate price should close today around 47K. Tomorrow I show they favor BTC going to 45-46K.
Right now I'm watching price action. Volume is low. Its a weak sell-off from sellers. However, the buyers are very defensive. I suspect that will change if the market shows a stable bottom. I'm watching and waiting.
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