Short

Updated

Get ready for Bitcoin volatility and altcoin rotations

This ugly uptrend will be followed by an ugly downtrend after a distribution phase. Those big guys who you think will buy Bitcoin in 2024 will sell it to you in 2024.

No Bitcoin ATH. Yes euphoria. Yes altcoins. Before the final destruction.

Note

Note

I believe this is a correction. I'll be hardcore believer in this after I see that distribution. Everybody has right to be wrong.

Note

It's the nature of corrections. You can see even the most stubborn bears either gave up or about to give up. That's the point. Break them both financially and mentally.

Note

I'm amused to see that Capo has the same thought with me right now :D I mean that guy is really beaten up this year. Would it save his reputation to be correct this time? Good thing for bears is that retailer is so sure that he is a good counter indicator though :D I've been bullish since 18k for the record :D

Note

Plus I guess he is expecting an elevator down. I don't think so. It will be a disgustingly long trend after a distribution, if it's going to happen.

Note

If you were an Elliot fan, you knew that it was over when you see this. You had to be bullish at some point. But it was hard to be bullish sentiment-wise. 1 year of downtrend does that to you. Plus bad news and everything. It was hard to be bullish. Same thing now. It's hard to be bearish.

Note

I got short position from ~41.5k. I don't like shorting things when they are strong but you know :D Isn't this is a little bit too much?

Note

Even if I'm wrong there should be a pullback here I believe. I'll close the short on that pullback. We'll have a lot of time to short if I'm right anyway.

Note

As long as it closes day below 42k, all is fine and expected for me. I didn't expect to hit 42k at first try but it is what it is.

Note

It's ok to go above this briefly. Just for a liquidity grab. But a convincing move above that invalidates the bearish case.

Note

So basically any move above 43k should live short. Should be reversed in a day or two. Otherwise bears fucked. I don't care about 48k that much.

Note

And of course we need volatile action below that before that. If no one is selling around here, then it doesn't matter much what it does at the last line of defence for bears.

Note

Note

BTC short closed. Mission abort.

Note

This was the type of volatility I expected to see back then. It's unlikely this was the macro top. Most likely it will range. The type of range will tell you something.

mitsandwits

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

mitsandwits