BTC (Y20.P2.E17).Confluences for a bullish scenario to continue
Updated
Hi All,
Many people as you know still look at the price action as over extended and they might be right.
Divergences can be seen in many time frames.
However let me remind you, if you recall, the last uptrend had many bearish divergences and yet the price kept going up, until it hit a major level.
Hence fib. level's alone with major resistance and support lines with confluence makes sense. Usually confirmed after the fact.
So one must use other means to gage the top or key pullback zones.
As a keen student, I want to master this and I'm sure many of you feel the same.
Macro patterns or structure are objective for many and its a difficult art and you can see with many peoples posts, we have many variations and they all make sense.
Fractals, divergences, wedge patterns, etc all make sense but its still not enough.
So I'm approaching this one with more of what the indicators tell me. Hopefully I get it right.
I will be looking at the 12 H, Daily and 2 Day charts to gage imminent trend change, loss of momentum.
The MACD and 2 other indicators seem to be really accurate. Its easy when you look back but harder to use it looking forward.
Any way, I'm giving it a go here and to have the following thoughts:
====================================================================================
2 DAY chart
====================================================================================
We have a strong MACD trend (gaps between the macd and signal are wide), the RSI (phoeix) and Wavetrend indicators rule-out any imminent move to the downside.
Note how the left chart has confluence on the fib levels. In addition, on the right chart how the indicators have been marked with pivotal points. So far today, we are no where near a cross over.
2 DAY MACD chart
Other indicators
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WEEKLY chart (left) and 12 HRLY chart
====================================================================================
We have on the weekly, confluence with major resistance in the 7800 to 8K range, with the 100 EMA and 21 EMA merging to be a strong resistance along with the Nov & Dec 2019 resistance level.
On the 12H chart, we have my view of a possible macro upward wedge formation, which takes into account previous support and resistance levels, the 2 DAY indicators, etc
Until we hit the 8K range, I cannot see how the indicators respond so we need to see what happens after the next 2 days.
8k or so can possibly be the top for this macro run, and just like we went to the 6400 bottoms (double bottom of 2019) to confirm support, we might have that scenario here as well
but I don't see that happening yet. I would however expect it to be difficult to pass this area so a lot of volatility is to come soon with the first attempt.
Weekly chart showing major divergences
====================================================================================
6 HRL and 12 HRLY chart
====================================================================================
MACD charts for both. No significant dip in sight yet
Other indicators: Energy or momentum still strong on both 6 and 12 hrs
Overall chart on the 6 hrly and 12 hrly.
Many people as you know still look at the price action as over extended and they might be right.
Divergences can be seen in many time frames.
However let me remind you, if you recall, the last uptrend had many bearish divergences and yet the price kept going up, until it hit a major level.
Hence fib. level's alone with major resistance and support lines with confluence makes sense. Usually confirmed after the fact.
So one must use other means to gage the top or key pullback zones.
As a keen student, I want to master this and I'm sure many of you feel the same.
Macro patterns or structure are objective for many and its a difficult art and you can see with many peoples posts, we have many variations and they all make sense.
Fractals, divergences, wedge patterns, etc all make sense but its still not enough.
So I'm approaching this one with more of what the indicators tell me. Hopefully I get it right.
I will be looking at the 12 H, Daily and 2 Day charts to gage imminent trend change, loss of momentum.
The MACD and 2 other indicators seem to be really accurate. Its easy when you look back but harder to use it looking forward.
Any way, I'm giving it a go here and to have the following thoughts:
====================================================================================
2 DAY chart
====================================================================================
We have a strong MACD trend (gaps between the macd and signal are wide), the RSI (phoeix) and Wavetrend indicators rule-out any imminent move to the downside.
Note how the left chart has confluence on the fib levels. In addition, on the right chart how the indicators have been marked with pivotal points. So far today, we are no where near a cross over.
2 DAY MACD chart
Other indicators
====================================================================================
WEEKLY chart (left) and 12 HRLY chart
====================================================================================
We have on the weekly, confluence with major resistance in the 7800 to 8K range, with the 100 EMA and 21 EMA merging to be a strong resistance along with the Nov & Dec 2019 resistance level.
On the 12H chart, we have my view of a possible macro upward wedge formation, which takes into account previous support and resistance levels, the 2 DAY indicators, etc
Until we hit the 8K range, I cannot see how the indicators respond so we need to see what happens after the next 2 days.
8k or so can possibly be the top for this macro run, and just like we went to the 6400 bottoms (double bottom of 2019) to confirm support, we might have that scenario here as well
but I don't see that happening yet. I would however expect it to be difficult to pass this area so a lot of volatility is to come soon with the first attempt.
Weekly chart showing major divergences
====================================================================================
6 HRL and 12 HRLY chart
====================================================================================
MACD charts for both. No significant dip in sight yet
Other indicators: Energy or momentum still strong on both 6 and 12 hrs
Overall chart on the 6 hrly and 12 hrly.
Note
On the charts here, you can see on the right side, we have the CME gap. which can be filled any time so its not the driver.
On the middle chart, we can see a fractal that can possibly play, based on the indicators, however I don't believe it will go down much, I don't have this as the top, only a pullback area. 8300 to 8400 is likely the spot. For confirmation, I need to see the 12 HRLY chart indicator go down (orange indicator). Then I will look at the 6 hrly and 3 hrly for more confirmation.
To sum it up, the daily and 2 daily, we are still bullish, so my original target at this point still stands, from 8900 to 9050.
Cheers,
Note
My target was hit at 8952. Now I would wait and see how it settles down. Is it making a bull flag or reversal. I cashed in a portion of my coins at 8950. So I was lucky to get that. The others were spread across the range to 9050.My main target of 9950 is still on the cards however without being arrogant, I would like to see what happens here, for many times I assumed a bullish stance when it was actual the top.
For now, I'll wait on the indicators to tell me if the momentum is still there.I believe it is and the next step is 9950 to 10250.
Note
updated chart target. 9460 will be a strong resistanceNote
Trade closed: target reached
This chart is now superseded by another.
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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