Next Volatility Period: Around September 13
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The key is whether it can rise after receiving support around 56150.01-56950.56.
Even if it doesn't rise, if it doesn't fall below the short-term downtrend line, I think it has a chance of rising.
If it falls below 56150.01,
1st: 52137.67
2nd: M-Signal on the 1M chart
You should check for support around the 1st and 2nd above.
Due to the rise of USDC, the trend of the coin market is moving in line with the stock market.
I think the launch of ETF products is affecting the coin market.
Looking at the Nasdaq 100 futures chart, the key is whether it can be supported near the important section of 1.902 (18788.2) ~ 0.786 (18898.9).
If it is not supported in this section,
1st: 18250.3
2nd: 17854.8
We need to check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd sections above.
If the decline continues, it is expected to ultimately fall to around 16000-17000.
I think the launch of ETF products has laid the foundation for the coin market to transform into a sound investment market.
However, I think that this has led to irregular effects on the coin market, which had been reflecting the flow of indicators well.
The BW indicator touched the 0 point on the BTCUSDT chart.
And, with this decline, it was about to change to the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, but it has changed back to the state of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
Because of this, there is a possibility of movement after June 18, so caution is required when trading.
The next volatility period is around September 13, so if it moves sideways around 56K before that, it is judged that there is a possibility of a trend reversal.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
Since I think it can create a new trend in the overshooting section, I need to check the movement when this section is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to create a pull back pattern and start after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Note
USDT dominance has risen to around 6.39.
If it rises above 6.39, there is a high possibility of a sharp decline.
Therefore, if it rises above 6.39, the key is whether it can meet resistance near the Fibonacci ratio point of 0.75 and fall quickly.
We need to check how much the stock market can rebound during the weekend when it is closed.
The expected rebound range is around the 54730.0 point.
This point corresponds to the lower point of the HA-Low indicator box on the 1D chart.
If it rises above 54730.0, the key is whether it can go above the 56150.01-56950.56 range.
It is necessary to check whether funds are continuously flowing into the coin market.
I think USDT is a fund that has a big impact on the coin market.
Therefore, if USDT does not show a gap downtrend, I think the coin market can recover quickly.
I think USDC has a slightly weaker impact on the coin market than USDT.
The reason is that the USDC market is not applied to all coins and tokens on exchanges around the world.
Therefore, I think USDC has a short-term impact on the coin market.
However, if USDC continues to maintain a gap uptrend, I think the coin market is likely to move similarly to the stock market.
Therefore, I think the current decline is largely influenced by the stock market.
Looking at the NAS100USD chart, I think it is likely to be supported around the 17854.8-18250.3 range.
If it falls further,
1st: 0.618 (17141.4), the right Fibonacci ratio point
2nd: 16123.5
We need to check for support around the 1st and 2nd ranges above.
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When the rebound begins, the final thing to check is whether the MS-Signal indicator can rise above and maintain the price.
If not, it is likely to lead to a second decline, as in the area where the finger is pointing.
Currently, the MS-Signal indicator is located in the 57937.19-59053.55 range.
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The trading period is when the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold zone and becomes StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, and you can proceed depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
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