Bearish scenario for BTC - Q1/Q2 2022
Here's the scenario no one wants to see but we should be prepared for.
We have lost the 50% level of the large range we have been trading in since Jan 2021 that stretches from 30k up to 65k, we have also lost the 0.618 Fib from the move from 29k to 69k.
This does look bad from a TA standpoint, this including the weekly printing a lower low also does not favour well.
If we bearishly retest the 0.618 and breakdown again I feel like 30K is the next stop from there unless bulls save 40k, the low from September still hasn't been swung so that is still something we could see happen before a reversal.
If/when there is a reversal I would again be looking at a bearish H&S setup, a bearish setup would see the right shoulder maybe not going as high, possibly bearishly retesting the middle of the range before capitulating to 30k then to 20k or lower, that would be the 1 to 1 measured move of the head and should pattern but that greatly depends on where the right shoulder tops out at.
So if we do breakdown further we will be looking at whether we hold the range at 29/30k and then we see what happens from there, looking at this large range as being a Wyckoff re-accumulation.
If we breakdown from this range then hopefully we all got out and get some mega discounts as crypto winter sets in.
Trade the chart not the feels. Take profit. Manage Risk.
We have lost the 50% level of the large range we have been trading in since Jan 2021 that stretches from 30k up to 65k, we have also lost the 0.618 Fib from the move from 29k to 69k.
This does look bad from a TA standpoint, this including the weekly printing a lower low also does not favour well.
If we bearishly retest the 0.618 and breakdown again I feel like 30K is the next stop from there unless bulls save 40k, the low from September still hasn't been swung so that is still something we could see happen before a reversal.
If/when there is a reversal I would again be looking at a bearish H&S setup, a bearish setup would see the right shoulder maybe not going as high, possibly bearishly retesting the middle of the range before capitulating to 30k then to 20k or lower, that would be the 1 to 1 measured move of the head and should pattern but that greatly depends on where the right shoulder tops out at.
So if we do breakdown further we will be looking at whether we hold the range at 29/30k and then we see what happens from there, looking at this large range as being a Wyckoff re-accumulation.
If we breakdown from this range then hopefully we all got out and get some mega discounts as crypto winter sets in.
Trade the chart not the feels. Take profit. Manage Risk.
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