IMPORTANT: BTC reclaims 1hr 50 EMA - But be careful!
Updated
As you can see from my linked idea from March 11th, the apocalypse came. The biggest storm for the short term is over and Bitcoin has reclaimed the 1hr 50 EMA (yellow) for the first time since May 4th, which is a good sign. Yet there are important factors at play in the market right now. First sign of strength would be to hold the 1hr 50 EMA and beyond we have to look at the stock market. The S&P500 will gap up at the NY open today (just wait and see) and still has immense negative gamma on options. The options dealers will do their best to get the index above 4K to get the massive amount of put contracts out of the money.
So a squeeze is likely, however(!), we still have massive negative gamma that has to be hedged to the downside. Next weeks could still look for more downside as the macro picture is grim. Any rally should be seen as a relief rally and not as a reversal into a bull market, crypto included. The most important levels for Bitcoin in the short term are the local resistance just above 31K and the imbalance between 28 & 26K. These levels could be revisited as soon as the S&P500 trends downwards, with the gap up of today such scenario is possible. Therefore the NY open will be very interesting today. Ideally Bitcoin retest swing lows and creates a double bottom, which could suit for a nice entry if(!) conditions for a long are met. Orderbooks are thin across the board, so be careful. Last thing, please read about an important update in the signature below.
A like is appreciated and let me know if you have any questions in the comments!
So a squeeze is likely, however(!), we still have massive negative gamma that has to be hedged to the downside. Next weeks could still look for more downside as the macro picture is grim. Any rally should be seen as a relief rally and not as a reversal into a bull market, crypto included. The most important levels for Bitcoin in the short term are the local resistance just above 31K and the imbalance between 28 & 26K. These levels could be revisited as soon as the S&P500 trends downwards, with the gap up of today such scenario is possible. Therefore the NY open will be very interesting today. Ideally Bitcoin retest swing lows and creates a double bottom, which could suit for a nice entry if(!) conditions for a long are met. Orderbooks are thin across the board, so be careful. Last thing, please read about an important update in the signature below.
A like is appreciated and let me know if you have any questions in the comments!
Note
SPX gapped up around 1.1% at NY open, Direct fill or leave it for the future?BTC looks like its heading for the 1hr 50 EMA.Note
I told you to be careful and told you about 1hr 50 EMA, so many degens went long on the New York open and got rekt.Note
BTC gonna go for 29K, possibly 28.5K - who thinks 26K was a long term bottom?Note
resistance hit! 28.5K hit! now imbalance?
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