BTC 4H Reversal or More Downside?
Market Analysis Summary: Key Insights and Trading Strategy
Global Summary of the 4 Charts 1D/12H/4H/2H
• Daily & 12H: The underlying trend (MTFTI “Up”) remains bullish, but signs of correction or profit-taking are emerging (ISPD in the mid-high zone, average RSI).
• 4H & 2H: The correction is more pronounced, with low satisfaction levels (0.06 – 0.15) and RSI in the oversold zone. This suggests a possible local bottom, but the short-term momentum remains negative (“Down” on 2H, borderline structure on 4H).
Recent Event and Market Impact
A violent crash recently occurred, leading to over $2 billion in liquidations, a level comparable to major correction events like FTX or the COVID crisis. The primary cause seems to be rising macroeconomic tensions, particularly a trade war initiated by Trump with high tariffs, causing turmoil in both traditional and crypto markets.
Despite this sharp drop, key technical levels remain crucial. As long as BTC does not break the critical $89,000 – $90,000 zone, a bullish recovery scenario remains possible after this extreme move. A bear trap could also form, followed by a bullish rebound if this support zone holds.
Key Levels
• Supports:
• 2H/4H AVWAP Low: ~$92,000 – $92,600
• 1D AVWAP Low: ~$78,200 (longer term)
• Critical zone: 92K – 93K, with an ultimate threshold at 89K – 90K
• Resistances:
• Moving Averages: 2H ~ 99.7K / 4H ~ 101K / Daily ~ 98.6K
• Auto AVWAP High: 2H ~ 99.9K / Daily ~ 105K
Most Relevant Timeframe for an Entry Point
• Short-term (2H, 4H): More pronounced oversold conditions. For a reactive swing trade, watch for a local bottom on 2H/4H as long as 92K holds.
• Positional investor (days/weeks): Wait for 4H confirmation, detecting a trend reversal (bullish crossover, rising satisfaction) above 95K – 96K.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. General Trend
• On the Daily/12H, the trend (MTFTI) remains bullish. Short-term corrections (2H, 4H) are significant, with oversold indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI Boll).
• A buy-the-dip bias is preferred as long as BTC remains above 89K – 90K USDT.
2. Most Interesting Timeframe for an Entry Point
• 4H appears to be the most relevant timeframe to detect a potential recovery swing.
• ISPD indicator is very low (Satisfaction ~0.06).
• Mason’s line signals a possible capitulation.
• 4H RSI is near the oversold zone.
• A reversal signal (breakout of a local resistance or bullish crossover) is awaited before entering a position.
3. Key Levels
• Major support: 92K (or 89K as the last defense line).
• Secondary support: Daily LoAVWAP near 78K in case of a more violent sell-off.
• Resistances:
• ~99K – 100K (short-term MAs 2H/4H & AVWAP High 2H)
• 105K in Daily (HiAVWAP)
4. Strategy
• Bullish scenario preferred:
Monitor the 92K – 90K zone. If the price defends this area, a technical rebound on 4H/2H could target 99K, 105K, or beyond.
• Bearish scenario:
A clear breakdown below 89K would invalidate flat/continuation structures, leading to a deeper medium/long-term correction (potential flush toward 78K).
Practical Approach
• For short-term traders:
Wait for a reversal signal on 2H/4H (e.g., breakout of a local resistance or MTFTI turning “Up”). Set a tight stop-loss below 92K or 89K depending on risk appetite.
• For swing/long-term investors:
The current correction can be used for DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) as long as BTC remains above 89K. The daily and weekly trends remain overall bullish.
Final Thoughts
• The market is indeed in a correction phase, which could be a healthy reset before a new bullish impulse.
• The 92K–89K zone remains the crucial “defense line.” Below that, caution is advised.
• The mid-term outlook remains bullish unless a major event occurs.
Happy trading and always practice rigorous risk management!
Global Summary of the 4 Charts 1D/12H/4H/2H
• Daily & 12H: The underlying trend (MTFTI “Up”) remains bullish, but signs of correction or profit-taking are emerging (ISPD in the mid-high zone, average RSI).
• 4H & 2H: The correction is more pronounced, with low satisfaction levels (0.06 – 0.15) and RSI in the oversold zone. This suggests a possible local bottom, but the short-term momentum remains negative (“Down” on 2H, borderline structure on 4H).
Recent Event and Market Impact
A violent crash recently occurred, leading to over $2 billion in liquidations, a level comparable to major correction events like FTX or the COVID crisis. The primary cause seems to be rising macroeconomic tensions, particularly a trade war initiated by Trump with high tariffs, causing turmoil in both traditional and crypto markets.
Despite this sharp drop, key technical levels remain crucial. As long as BTC does not break the critical $89,000 – $90,000 zone, a bullish recovery scenario remains possible after this extreme move. A bear trap could also form, followed by a bullish rebound if this support zone holds.
Key Levels
• Supports:
• 2H/4H AVWAP Low: ~$92,000 – $92,600
• 1D AVWAP Low: ~$78,200 (longer term)
• Critical zone: 92K – 93K, with an ultimate threshold at 89K – 90K
• Resistances:
• Moving Averages: 2H ~ 99.7K / 4H ~ 101K / Daily ~ 98.6K
• Auto AVWAP High: 2H ~ 99.9K / Daily ~ 105K
Most Relevant Timeframe for an Entry Point
• Short-term (2H, 4H): More pronounced oversold conditions. For a reactive swing trade, watch for a local bottom on 2H/4H as long as 92K holds.
• Positional investor (days/weeks): Wait for 4H confirmation, detecting a trend reversal (bullish crossover, rising satisfaction) above 95K – 96K.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. General Trend
• On the Daily/12H, the trend (MTFTI) remains bullish. Short-term corrections (2H, 4H) are significant, with oversold indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI Boll).
• A buy-the-dip bias is preferred as long as BTC remains above 89K – 90K USDT.
2. Most Interesting Timeframe for an Entry Point
• 4H appears to be the most relevant timeframe to detect a potential recovery swing.
• ISPD indicator is very low (Satisfaction ~0.06).
• Mason’s line signals a possible capitulation.
• 4H RSI is near the oversold zone.
• A reversal signal (breakout of a local resistance or bullish crossover) is awaited before entering a position.
3. Key Levels
• Major support: 92K (or 89K as the last defense line).
• Secondary support: Daily LoAVWAP near 78K in case of a more violent sell-off.
• Resistances:
• ~99K – 100K (short-term MAs 2H/4H & AVWAP High 2H)
• 105K in Daily (HiAVWAP)
4. Strategy
• Bullish scenario preferred:
Monitor the 92K – 90K zone. If the price defends this area, a technical rebound on 4H/2H could target 99K, 105K, or beyond.
• Bearish scenario:
A clear breakdown below 89K would invalidate flat/continuation structures, leading to a deeper medium/long-term correction (potential flush toward 78K).
Practical Approach
• For short-term traders:
Wait for a reversal signal on 2H/4H (e.g., breakout of a local resistance or MTFTI turning “Up”). Set a tight stop-loss below 92K or 89K depending on risk appetite.
• For swing/long-term investors:
The current correction can be used for DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) as long as BTC remains above 89K. The daily and weekly trends remain overall bullish.
Final Thoughts
• The market is indeed in a correction phase, which could be a healthy reset before a new bullish impulse.
• The 92K–89K zone remains the crucial “defense line.” Below that, caution is advised.
• The mid-term outlook remains bullish unless a major event occurs.
Happy trading and always practice rigorous risk management!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.