Bull or Bear market? That is the question
Today we sit in some of the most uncertain times we’ve seen in markets (and geopolitics) in many years.
Trump vs Xi Jinping
A global trade war, with a focus on the 2 most powerful economies in the world (USA & China), has put markets and global economies into a downward spiral of fear and confusion. What happens next is anyone's guess, considering everything can change on a whim from the decisions of two men: President Trump and President Xi Jinping.While I cannot predict the exact outcome, today I’m going to attempt to provide some clarity in all the chaos.
Right now everyone else is focusing on tariffs and a trade war, but let’s not forget that the world continues to go round and economies still continue to function. What this means is that there is still data and charts that we can look at to understand where things are heading.
Of course, the result of the trade negotiations will dictate the final outcome of markets, so we must weigh the various scenarios with our analysis But first, let’s forget about the trade war and the tariffs (I know it’s not easy to do), I will get to that at the end of the report.
IRAN US Drama
Iran and the US just finished the second round of nuclear negotiations in Rome. It was constructive, and both sides seem ready for a third round and possibly reaching a deal
We know that the price of Bitcoin, crypto and most other assets, correlate along with the business cycle.If you want to understand the direction of markets, it’s imperative that you understand the direction of the business cycle. when the business cycle bottoms and begins to move upwards, Bitcoin and crypto assets begin to rise.
When the ISM is rising but is below 50, Bitcoin outperforms. When the ISM passes 50, this is when altcoins historically start to outperform and finally, when the ISM tops and heads lower, we typically go into a +12-month bear market where both Bitcoin and altcoins pullback significantly.
This bull market has been a unique one because it is now almost 2 years since the ISM bottomed out and we have yet to reach a sustained ISM above 50. Many people are saying: “the real bull market hasn’t started yet”, though I’m not sure most people realize it’s because the ISM has not sustained a break above 50 to the upside.
Now, of course the current global trade war will impact the ISM, but setting that aside for a moment, the ISM has been in a sideways chop for 29 months now, starting well before the trade war started.
This is very unusual and is what has been holding back crypto from having its typical fireworks style bull market. long story short BTC acting normal and most whales and bulls playing defensive thanks to Trump..everyone sick of winning these days!
Today we sit in some of the most uncertain times we’ve seen in markets (and geopolitics) in many years.
Trump vs Xi Jinping
A global trade war, with a focus on the 2 most powerful economies in the world (USA & China), has put markets and global economies into a downward spiral of fear and confusion. What happens next is anyone's guess, considering everything can change on a whim from the decisions of two men: President Trump and President Xi Jinping.While I cannot predict the exact outcome, today I’m going to attempt to provide some clarity in all the chaos.
Right now everyone else is focusing on tariffs and a trade war, but let’s not forget that the world continues to go round and economies still continue to function. What this means is that there is still data and charts that we can look at to understand where things are heading.
Of course, the result of the trade negotiations will dictate the final outcome of markets, so we must weigh the various scenarios with our analysis But first, let’s forget about the trade war and the tariffs (I know it’s not easy to do), I will get to that at the end of the report.
IRAN US Drama
Iran and the US just finished the second round of nuclear negotiations in Rome. It was constructive, and both sides seem ready for a third round and possibly reaching a deal
We know that the price of Bitcoin, crypto and most other assets, correlate along with the business cycle.If you want to understand the direction of markets, it’s imperative that you understand the direction of the business cycle. when the business cycle bottoms and begins to move upwards, Bitcoin and crypto assets begin to rise.
When the ISM is rising but is below 50, Bitcoin outperforms. When the ISM passes 50, this is when altcoins historically start to outperform and finally, when the ISM tops and heads lower, we typically go into a +12-month bear market where both Bitcoin and altcoins pullback significantly.
This bull market has been a unique one because it is now almost 2 years since the ISM bottomed out and we have yet to reach a sustained ISM above 50. Many people are saying: “the real bull market hasn’t started yet”, though I’m not sure most people realize it’s because the ISM has not sustained a break above 50 to the upside.
Now, of course the current global trade war will impact the ISM, but setting that aside for a moment, the ISM has been in a sideways chop for 29 months now, starting well before the trade war started.
This is very unusual and is what has been holding back crypto from having its typical fireworks style bull market. long story short BTC acting normal and most whales and bulls playing defensive thanks to Trump..everyone sick of winning these days!
Trade active
Bitcoin experienced a notable surge over Easter, climbing above 
87K during early Asian trading hours, effectively reversing much of the losses triggered by former President Trump's unexpected “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. While cryptocurrency markets often see sudden rallies during long weekends, this particular move stood in stark contrast to the more subdued December "Santa Rally." This time, Bitcoin made a strong showing.Bitcoin wasn't the only asset to see a boost gold also reached new all time highs, driven by escalating trade tensions and a weakening US dollar. With stocks closing in the red last week and extending their decline into April, the narrative of Bitcoin as a potential safe haven or inflation hedge is gaining momentum once again. If this trend continues, it could provide a significant boost to institutional Bitcoin investments.
In fact, we're already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF inflows turned positive last week, with net inflows of $13.4 million, a sharp contrast to the previous week's outflows of $708 million. In the options market, positioning has become more balanced, with risk reversals across different maturities flattening out, moving away from the persistent bias toward short-term puts seen in recent weeks.
So, is this simultaneous rally in Bitcoin and gold just a holiday fluke, or does it signal a genuine shift toward Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset? A shift would represent a significant change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more days. The correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and equities is definitely something to monitor closely.
For now, we're focusing on the critical $88.8k resistance level. Until it breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing firm conclusions.
Trade closed: target reached
cant wait for alt szn
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🟣MasterClass moonypto.com/masterclass
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
t.me/moonyptofarsi
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
t.me/moonyptofarsi
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.